UEFA Europa League Predictions: Matchday 5/7

Four sides are one step from reaching this season’s Europa League final.

A spot in the Europa League final is just 90 minutes away. | Visionhaus/Kristian Skeie/UEFA/Getty Images

The final of the 2025–26 Europa League will be set come the end of Thursday evening.

One Premier League side will contest the showpiece event in Istanbul, Aston Villa facing off against fellow Midlands side Nottingham Forest in their semifinal second leg, while Freiburg are tasked with overturning a deficit if they want to overcome Braga and reach a first European final.

Both ties are on a knife edge after tense first legs and all four remaining competitors will fancy their chances of progressing. Only two can achieve that feat, however.

With that in mind, here is how Sports Illustrated believes the Europa League semifinal second legs will pan out.

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Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest

Chris Wood’s penalty kick was the difference during the first leg. | Naomi Baker—UEFA/UEFA/Getty Images

Kick-off time: 8 p.m. BST / 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT

“The VAR is so, so bad. It’s a clear red card,” fumed Unai Emery after the first leg at the City Ground. The Villa boss was apoplectic at the decision not to send off Elliot Anderson for his lunge on the ankle of Ollie Watkins, a moment the Spaniard felt was decisive in his side’s narrow 1–0 loss.

Anderson went unpunished, but Villa were not so fortunate. Chris Wood’s second-half penalty means they now trail heading into the second leg, required to overturn a deficit on their own patch.

That’s certainly possible, although confidence has taken a knock following three straight defeats. Emery made sweeping changes on Sunday as his unfamiliar XI were beaten 2–1 by struggling Tottenham Hotspur in a truly dismal display, and boos rang out around Villa Park after the whistle.

Those jeers must turn to cheers on Thursday night if Villa are to overcome one of England’s form sides. Rotation was no issue for Vítor Pereira when his changed XI traveled to Chelsea and claimed an impressive 3–1 win on Monday, extending the club’s unbeaten run to nearly two months and making it five successive wins in all competitions.

Forest know they must simply avoid defeat to progress and they’re more than capable of shutting up shop under Pereira, despite their improved attacking form. They could grind their way to a first major continental final since winning the European Cup in 1980.

Prediction: Aston Villa 1–1 Nottingham Forest

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Freiburg vs. Braga

Braga edged the first leg. | Diego Maranhao/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Kick-off time: 8 p.m. BST / 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT

There was drama aplenty in Braga last week. The hosts ran out 2–1 winners when Freiburg came to town, but a 92nd-minute strike from Mario Dorgeles was required to swing the contest in their favor—a major relief for Rodrigo Zalazar after his stoppage-time penalty miss in the first half.

Freiburg icon Vincenzo Grifo had canceled out Demir Tıknaz’s early opener during a high-octane first period, and the Italian’s creativity and goalscoring prowess will be leaned upon in Thursday’s clash at the Europa-Park Stadion.

The Bundesliga’s seventh-placed side will enter the match full of optimism, especially given they have won all of their home matches in the Europa League this season—racking up eight goals in knockout stage wins over Genk and Celta Vigo on their own patch.

Braga have lost just once on their travels in Europe this season and secured an impressive 4–2 triumph at Real Betis in the quarterfinals, but Freiburg’s eye-catching displays on home turf ensure they’re slight favorites.

The tie could swing in either direction, but Freiburg’s attacking power could carry them into uncharted territory.

Prediction: Freiburg 3–1 Braga

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Europa League Semifinal Second Leg Predictions

Kick-Off Time	Fixture	Prediction
8 p.m. GMT / 3 p.m. ET	Aston Villa vs. Nott’m Forest	1–1
8 p.m. GMT / 3 p.m. ET	Freiburg vs. Braga	3–1

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