USMNT’s Road to 2026 World Cup Final After Bosnia and Herzegovina Victory

The USMNT’s route to the final is blocked by European giants.

The USMNT is on the march. | John Todd/ISI Photos/Getty Images.

Excitement is building around the USMNT as it continues to dazzle at this summer’s World Cup.

The co-hosts have delivered an impressive campaign to date, which peaked with Wednesday’s round of 32 victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina. The 2–0 triumph marked a first knockout win for the Stars and Stripes in 24 years, and propelled them one step closer to unthinkable glory.

Mauricio Pochettino’s men have defied the doubters with three wins from four matches, but a relatively kind schedule is about to become much less forgiving. If the USMNT is going to progress through the knockout stage, it will be forced to take on formidable foes of increasing difficulty.

Reaching the showpiece event on July 19 appears unlikely, but soccer has a habit of turning the seemingly impossible into reality.

Here’s the USMNT’s possible route to the final.

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Round of 16

Belgium has inexplicably reached he last 16. | Bai Xuefei/Xinhua/Getty Images

Next up for the USMNT is Belgium. Lumen Field will host the clash next Monday and despite the reputation held by the Europeans over the past decade, Opta actually considers Pochettino’s side marginal favorites to progress.

Belgium pulled off the most stunning and unexpected of comebacks in its round-of-32 tie with Senegal, scoring twice in the dying embers to force extra time, during which they scored the latest goal in World Cup history via Youri Tielemans’s 125th-minute penalty to reach the round of 16.

The Red Devils are still unbeaten this summer but have been miles below their best, and were extremely fortunate to escape an early elimination on Wednesday.

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Quarterfinal

Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal is possible last eight opposition. | Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

The USMNT is certain to face its third consecutive European adversary in the knockout phase should it reach the quarterfinal stage.

Most feared is Spain, which is a possible opponent in the last eight. The reigning European champion is yet to reach its peak this summer, but Luis de la Fuente boasts an exceptional roster laced with world-class talent.

Austria, Spain’s round of 32 opponent, is technically on the cards, although Ralf Rangnick’s side are not expected to reach the quarters.

A battle with Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal is another possibility, the Seleção das Quinas having endured an unspectacular group stage in North America. However, Portugal is always an immense threat considering the quality possessed across the team, and it would be strong favorites to beat the USMNT in any match-up.

Croatia faces Portugal in the round of 32 and has a history over massively overperforming on the world stage. The 2018 runner-up and 2022 semifinalist would be a huge threat to the USMNT.

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Semifinal

France is the team to beat right now. | Erick W. Rasco/ Sports Illustrated

An arduous route to the final is only likely to get tougher at the semifinal stage, with France the most likely opposition if the USMNT can defy the odds.

Les Bleus have comfortably been the tournament’s slickest performer to date, winning all four of its matches and scoring three or more times in each. An extraordinary forward line steals attention, with Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise all purring in North America.

France face giant-killers Paraguay in the round of 16, the South Americans upsetting Germany last time out despite being beaten 4–1 by the USMNT in the group stage.

Neighbor and fellow co-host Canada is another potential semifinal opponent, although the odds of both nations reaching the last four are infinitesimally small. Still, it would be a thrilling encounter.

Canada is unlikely to make it beyond the round of 16, though, with Morocco its next opponents. The 2022 semifinalist has already held Brazil and beaten the Netherlands on penalties this summer, and has the capacity to cause major issues for France if they meet in the quarterfinals.

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Final

Argentina is on course for back-to-back titles. | Roberto SCHMIDT/AFP/Getty Images

Any nation on the other side of the World Cup bracket could be an adversary for the USMNT in the final, but some countries are more likely than others to reach the last match.

Lionel Messi’s Argentina has a relatively palatable route to the showpiece event and is motivated by the allure of back-to-back titles—something no team has achieved since Brazil in 1962. La Albiecleste have strolled to three group stage wins so far and face Cabo Verde in their round of 32 game, after which they will take on one of Australia or Egypt.

Brazil managed a last-gasp winner against Japan on Monday that keeps title dreams alive, and it must now conquer Norway in the round of 16. The Seleção would then face one of Mexico or England, both of which are utterly formidable foes.

Switzerland, Algeria, Ghana and Colombia are unlikely to make it all the way to the final, but the World Cup regularly serves up seismic shocks, ensuring they cannot yet be dismissed entirely.

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