Ranking the Eight Remaining French Open Men's Players by Likelihood of Winning First Major

In a carnage-filled French Open, there are zero players who have ever won a major remaining in the men's draw. Who is most likely to win at Roland Garros?

Could the 2026 French Open be Alexander Zverev's moment? | Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Just what the heck is going on at the French Open? In an oppressively hot tournament, the heat has literally been turned up on some of the sport’s best competitors, as the likes of Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, Coco Gauff and Iga Świątek have been eliminated. After the dust settled, there were exactly zero players who had ever won a major remaining in the men’s side of things, and zero players who have ever won a French Open title on the women’s side.

With the uncertainty and unpredictability particularly high on the men’s side of the bracket, it can be difficult to judge who’s a contender and who isn’t. So, with the quarterfinals set on the men’s side, let’s dive in and rank the eight remaining players from most likely to least likely to win the 2026 French Open.

8. Matteo Arnaldi

Arnaldi had never been to the quarterfinals of a major until the 2026 French Open. The 25-year-old Italian has taken the long road to get there, playing back-to-back five set matches, including a thrilling, gritty fight against Frances Tiafoe that lasted nearly five-and-a-half hours. Arnaldi’s impressive court coverage and counterpunching ability have made him a tough out on the clay. While he’s a long shot to hoist The Musketeers’ Cup, Arnaldi also can’t legitimately be counted out at this point. The all-Italian quarterfinal—and battle of the Matteos—is going to be fun.

7. Matteo Barrettini

All Berrettini, who has been riddled with injuries in recent years, has done in his first French Open appearance in five years is advance to the quarterfinals for the first time since he stepped on the red dirt at Roland Garros. Berrettini has had to dig deep for some of these wins, such as during his five-set thriller in the third round against Francisco Comesana. It has this writer thinking: Could Berrettini be having his Stan Wawrinka moment? Wawrinka didn’t win his first major until he was 28 years old—Berrettini turned 30 in April. The big-serving Italian has a remarkable career record on the two natural surfaces of grass and clay, and, were it not for Novak Djokovic, would have a major title to his name already.

6. Jakub Menšík

The biggest win of Jakub Menšík's (left) career came at the 2025 Miami Open, where he defeated 24-time major winner Novak Djokovic (right) in the final. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Menšík seems to be flying under the radar just a bit compared to Joao Fonseca and Rafael Jodar. But he shouldn’t be. Of the young guns, Menšík, 20, is the only one to have won a Masters 1000 event; the Miami Open in 2025 during which he triumphed over the likes of Taylor Fritz and Djokovic en route to becoming the fifth-youngest Masters 1000 champ. Menšík has boomed the ninth-most aces, won 77% of his points on his first serve and has fired the most winners in the tournament thus far. Add it all up and Menšík has the heavy artillery to hang with anyone, despite his meager rate of breaking serve on the other end. You just hope his body—he experienced cramps during a grueling, five-set win over Mariano Navone in the second round—can hold up.

5. Rafael Jodar

Jodar, the 19-year-old Spanish sensation, is playing some of the best tennis of anyone left in the draw. He showed incredible moxie coming back from two sets to love down against countryman Pablo Carreño Busta in the fourth round. He’s one of just four players remaining in the draw who is converting break points at a rate north of 50% and he’s been holding serve very well on the other end. Armed with a heavy forehand capable of approaching 3200 RPMs, the Spaniard has a game well-suited to the clay, as evidenced by his 15-3 record on the surface this season. His quarterfinal match against Alexander Zverev won’t be easy, but with all the pressure on the favored German, perhaps Jodar will seize the moment. Stop me if you’ve heard this before but a Spanish tennis player named Rafael has a good chance to win the French Open.

4. Felix Auger-Aliassime

Felix Auger-Aliassime advanced to the second Grand Slam semifinal of his career at the 2025 US Open. | Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Auger-Aliassime is one of just four men left in the draw who have ever advanced to a major semifinal, having most recently accomplished the feat at last year’s US Open. And while clay has been a troublesome surface for the Canadian in his career, he’s also shown some incredible fight on the red dirt at Roland Garros, erasing a 4–1 deficit in the fifth set of his first round match against Daniel Altmayer, then doing it again in the third set of his third round win over Brandon Nakashima. Auger-Aliassime, because of his blend of athleticism, length, big serve and high-octane groundstrokes, was seen as a potential major winner. He’ll have to overcome some players who are more naturally suited to clay, but the opportunity is there for Auger-Aliassime.

3. Flavio Cobolli

If I told you that world No. 14 Flavio Cobolli would be the highest seeded Italian left in the French Open entering the fourth round, you’d tell me to come back to the real world. Yet, here we are. Cobolli has been economical, as he’s dropped just one set en route to the quarterfinals. In a five set-filled tournament laden with carnage, being economical is important. Clay is by far his best surface, and the Italian’s combination of fiery forehands, pinpoint serving and ability to get breaks of serve when he’s needed them have made Cobolli a legitimate threat to win it all.

2. Joao Fonseca

Joao Fonseca has everything he needs to become just the eighth teenager to win a Grand Slam in men's tennis history. | Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Fonseca has arrived. First, he came back from three sets down to stun the comeback king and 24-time major winner Djokovic in the third round, then followed that marvel up by wearing down two-time French Open finalist Casper Ruud to advance to his first major quarterfinal. The fiery Brazilian has it all: a whip-cracking forehand, booming backhand and a dynamite serve when he needs it. Plus, in the biggest moments of matches when the heat is turned up, Fonseca has been teflon-strong mentally. With confidence and an infatuated Roland Garros crowd in his pocket, Fonseca may be primed to shock the world.

1. Alexander Zverev

Zverev is by far the most accomplished player left in the men’s side of the tournament, having come about as close as a tennis player can get to winning a major without actually winning one. With Carlos Alcaraz injured, the door to Zverev winning his first major opened a crack. Now with Sinner and Djokovic eliminated, the door is off its hinges. Zverev will need to connect on his first serves at a better rate, and there are plenty of young up-and-coming players who could stun the German. But given his experience and clay court prowess, Zverev is the overwhelming favorite. He just may need to exorcise some mental demons along the way if he wants to hoist The Musketeers’ Cup.

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