U.S. Open 2026 Men’s Preview: Can an American End the Title Drought?

It was as if Michael Jordan left the NBA, and Kobe Bryant and LeBron James joined the next season. The breakup of the Big Three started four years ago with the retirement of Roger Federer. Yet, men’s tennis hardly missed a beat. At the 2022 U.S. Open, a Spanish teenager, Carlos Alcaraz, took the title. The next year, Novak Djokovic, deep into his 30s, picked up his 24th major. Then Jannik Sinner got on the board in New York. And last year Alcaraz beat Sinner in the final. One generation departed, another arrived.

Maybe not so fast. This year has brought—if not the drop-off many predicted years ago—a strange and uneven season. Alcaraz is returning to action for the first time since April, but Sinner is out with a right knee injury. Jack Draper, Holger Rune and João Fonseca are also injured. So many top players—we’re looking at you, Alex de Minaur, and last year’s semifinalist Félix Auger-Aliassime, both top-eight seeds—hardly come to New York trailed by a caravan of momentum.

Just as it’s darkest before the dawn, it’s often most chaotic before order sets in. Perhaps this is the tournament that brings clarity and hierarchy to a current state verging on anarchy. Maybe Arthur Fils backs up his big Cincinnati win with another title? Maybe an American man wins the U.S. Open for the first time since 2003. Maybe Alexander Zverev wins his second major in three months. If nothing else, it won’t be boring.

Predicting this U.S. Open seems like a particularly foolhardy errand, but since when has that stopped us?

The top 16

1. Alexander Zverev

No longer the best player (ever) to never have won a major. He removed himself from that list in Paris and then, almost as crucially, reached the Wimbledon final. He has the game to win hard-court majors—no question. (And he came so, so close to winning the U.S. Open in 2020.) But it’s hard to pick him to win given his up-and-down results.

2. Carlos Alcaraz

Here we go. It’s great to have the defending champion back, playing his first major since the Australian Open. He professes full health, and still it’s hard not to worry about how he will fare in best-of-five matches (that’s a lot of forehands and backhands), coupled with lingering concerns about returning too soon—and with too little prep—after a serious wrist injury. Still, if he finds his form (and lord knows he can), it’s not hard to see him defending his title.

3. Félix Auger-Aliassime

Like Spirit Halloween, Auger-Aliassime emerges in the fall and struggles to remain prominent in the other seasons. Now with a new coach (yet to be named on the ATP website), we’ll see if he can improve on last year’s performance, a fine run to the semifinals, which included a win over Zverev. He’s such a thoroughly likable player and person, but does he have that next gear?

4. Novak Djokovic

You’ve seen his documentary, Novak Djokovic: The Wolf in Winter; now see if he can play “the wolf in late summer.” He’s a top-five player and a wild card. He could win the tournament if he catches some breaks in addition to Sinner’s absence. (He also, it must be disclosed, has zero titles this year and has played 20 matches). He’s the same age as Jimmy Connors was when he made his run in 1991. Djokovic seems trapped in a purgatory where he’s too good and too dangerous to retire, and yet not quite at the level where he can beat seven opponents in best-of-five matches.

5. Flavio Cobolli

What’s Italian for baller? Cobolli’s been to a Roland Garros final and made deep runs on grass, and his flashy, shotmaking game should translate well to hard courts. He defeated Rafael Jódar in Cincinnati, and the bigger the occasion, the better he plays. Let’s see if he can take advantage of his draw and not squander energy and time on court in the early rounds. There’s so much to like about Cobolli, but his hard-court results—and rare lapse into flagging spirits when matches aren’t going his way—suggest there are still levels to go, especially on this surface.

6. Alex de Minaur

His first major as a married man perhaps will recharge the dwindling battery he has lamented. You feel for the guy; he does everything right and professionally, and yet he is tennis’s Sisyphus, persistently, if admirably, trying to move that rock upward.

7. Daniil Medvedev

The champion (gulp) five years ago has a U.S. Open pedigree that speaks for itself. And yet, his slump at majors (5–3 this year) has grown a head and a tail. Medvedev is also coming off a loss in Winston-Salem that has him pondering a career change. “Maybe I should start a career in pickleball,” he said. “Not too late. With Jock Sock... in doubles.”

8. Ben Shelton

It’s been a strange year for a bona fide contender. Shelton’s won four titles, including a championship defense in Canada on a North American hard court just a few weeks ago. And yet his record is speckled with unsightly, early losses to lesser players, including at the past two majors.

9. Taylor Fritz

He missed the top-8 seeding, which could be big, but Fritz was a U.S. Open finalist two years ago and the Washington D.C. champion in July. Fritz has emerged as a consummate pro and truth-teller ... except when it comes to his own physical state, in which case he goes stoic. If he’s anything close to full health, he can win; if not, we might be looking at a Wimbledon scenario in which he lost in the quarterfinals.

10. Arthur Fils

Who’s gonna talk now? A lot of people. After his Cincinnati win—the biggest of his career—Fils is a serious contender at the U.S. Open. It’s all there, on brilliant display, and the 22-year-old is thoroughly comfortable under a spotlight.

11. Frances Tiafoe

Tiafoe is on the contender list, especially given his prioritization—and track record—in New York. After reaching the Cincinnati final and winning the second set over Fils, Tiafoe sought treatment for his back and didn’t win another game. Assuming he recovers, look for him in Week 2, and possibly to make a deep run.

12. Rafael Jódar

The 19-year-old is blowing through stop signs. He started the year at the Canberra Challenger, ranked No. 165. What an ascent for someone who doesn’t turn 20 until the week after the U.S. Open. He’s played a lot of tennis, and best-of-five matches require pacing and match management, but what a player.

13. Lorenzo Musetti

Even with injuries and absences, he’s still near the head of the class. His game is easy on the eyes, but Musetti can sometimes capitulate when matches tighten.

14. Learner Tien

The fast Learner keeps graduating to new levels. A former U.S. Open finalist in the boys’ event (trivia: lost to Fonseca) just wins and wins and wins. Tien does everything well, nothing poorly and knows how to close. The question is, does he have that next step?

15. Alexander Bublik

Since Wimbledon, he has played more clay events than hard-court events. He has so much easy power and can beat anyone when the stars align. When they don’t, he’s early-round upset fodder, the losses coming with something veering close to indifference.

16. Brandon Nakashima

Watch this space. He snuck into the top-16 section after a dazzling hard-court summer. Nakashima is more of a workhorse than a showhorse, but a sleeper no more. He is tied (with Fils at 22) for most hard-court match wins in 2026.

Seeds 17–32

Czechs: Jiří Lehečka and Jakub Menšík are back-to-back in the rankings and are both dangerous.

Tommy Paul: He’s had an up-and-down season but is a pro’s pro, who won’t mind grinding in the heat.

Francisco Cerúndolo: His results have cooled, but behold the forehand.

Alexander Blockx: He is one of the better players yet to fully break through.

Dark horse corridor

Arthur Fery: Covering our bases this time.

Thiago Tirante: He has big strokes that he is learning to harness and has already beaten Djokovic this summer.

Daniel Mérida: The Spaniard has been on a summer heater.

Karen Khachanov: Can this be right? The Russian veteran—and former U.S. Open semifinalist—is barely in the top 50?

Stefanos Tsitsipas: His best days may be behind him, but he’s still dangerous.

Botic van de Zandschulp: Anyone who’s beaten Alcaraz at a major in the past 24 months gets a look. (He is currently making a run in Winston-Salem.)

Michael Zheng: It’s hard to argue with this wild card. He’s made his mark at all three preceding majors.

Stan Wawrinka: The former U.S. Open champion (2016) finally got his deserved wild card.

Gaël Monfils: He already had the shot of the tournament in qualifiying week.

First round matches to watch

Matteo Berrettini vs. Wawrinka: Run it back!
Fils vs. Tsitsipas: Two stars going opposite directions.
Shelton vs. Tallon Griekspoor: A tough first out for a contender.
Fery vs. Musetti

Upset special

Juan Manuel Cerúndolo d. Casper Ruud

Doubles winner

Rafael Matos and Orlando Luz. The Brazilians took Canada and Cincinnati. Why not make it a sweep?

Semifinals

Fils d. Djokovic
Fritz d. Zverev

Final

Fils d. Fritz

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