Deciding the Contenders and Pretenders of the WNBA Playoff Picture

Of the eight teams currently ranked in postseason spots, here’s who we think are the biggest threats.

A’ja Wilson’s (left) defending champ Aces and Olivia Miles’s first-place Lynx are two of the biggest contenders as the regular season winds down. | Matt Krohn/Getty Images)

With the 2026 WNBA season in its final stretch, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. The Lynx, who are three games ahead of the Valkyries, were the first team to clinch a playoff spot after their 103–91 win over the Wings on Sunday, when Kayla McBride set a league record for most threes (10) in a game. 

While the final order and playoff matchups have yet to be determined, the eight teams that will play in the postseason seem pretty clear. The eighth-place Mystics have a six-game lead over the ninth-place Fire. The Aces also secured a playoff spot on Thursday, while the Storm were the first team eliminated from playoff contention. 

Of the eight teams currently in playoff spots, our writers sussed out the contenders versus the pretenders. 

Who are the contenders and who are the pretenders? 

Minnesota Lynx

Contender. The Lynx aren’t just contenders, they are the contenders. Olivia Miles has been sensational in her rookie season, piloting the league’s top-rated offense (115.3). With Napheesa Collier back from injury and gaining steam ahead of the postseason, this Minnesota side looks positively scary, and aren’t even at full strength. Courtney Williams, McBride and Natasha Howard are locked in, too, playing at or close to career-best campaigns. Much of this Lynx roster knows what it takes to succeed in the playoffs, and have the bitter taste of falling short in recent seasons to motivate them. —Clare Brennan

Golden State Valkyries

Contender. The Valkyries have the league’s best defense no matter how you slice it: They are first in points per game allowed (76.9), defensive rating (101.4) and half-court points per play allowed (0.85). Golden State also hits the most threes per game in the WNBA, and it may enjoy Ballhalla home court advantage through the first two rounds. That’s not the type of team anyone will want to face in the playoffs. —Dan Falkenheim

Las Vegas Aces 

Contender. The Aces haven’t been perfect this season—far from it. However, as long as Las Vegas has A’ja Wilson, the league’s best player, this team will be in the mix. Well on her way to her fifth MVP award, Wilson has somehow found a way to elevate her game once again, shooting the three at a career clip. Becky Hammon can rely on Wilson to be Wilson, but really, the Aces go the way the guards go. When Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray are clicking, Las Vegas is tough to beat. —C.B.

Atlanta Dream

Pretender. Atlanta is a good team that has three top-20 scorers in Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard and Angel Reese. However, the Dream are a poor three-point shooting team outside of Howard, which presents concerns on whether the offense can keep up with the likes of the Lynx, Aces and Fever. Defense is a strength for Atlanta with the on-ball pressure from Howard and Jordin Canada, plus Reese’s dominance on the glass. The Dream’s defense isn’t as good as Minnesota’s or Golden State’s, though, which would put the group in a bad matchup should it play one of the league’s top two teams at some point in the playoffs. —Blake Silverman

Indiana Fever

Contender. Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell rival any other team’s big three. More than that, though, the Fever’s offense has been historic. They have the best offensive rating (115.0) all-time and the best offensive rating relative to league average (+6.96) since 2023. The scary part? If Indiana can raise its defensive floor in the postseason, there are few, if any, teams that can keep pace and withstand the Fever’s onslaught.  —D.F.

New York Liberty

Pretender. The Liberty should be contenders, but have yet to show consistent championship mettle. In fairness, New York has dealt with injury woes, including Sabrina Ionescu, Leonie Fiebich and free-agent addition Satou Sabally, who is taking time away from the team to deal with a head injury. But with Ionescu back in the lineup alongside Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, the Liberty certainly have enough talent to make something out of a deep postseason run. The question is if New York can get in a rhythm and on the same page in time for the playoffs. —C.B.

Dallas Wings

Pretender. The Wings have been in a rut as of late after an 18–9 start to the season. Dallas is in the middle of a tough stretch of its schedule as the Paige Bueckers-led group’s only losses over the past month have come to playoff teams, but the Wings’ lack of depth is concerning come postseason time. Bueckers, Jessica Shepard and top pick Azzi Fudd have each enjoyed a great season. Arike Ogunbowale has turned it on as of late, but she’s been incredibly inefficient at times this year. Beyond that, the Wings aren’t getting much production from the rest of the roster which likely limits the team against a superior opponent. —B.S.

Washington Mystics 

Pretender. That label shouldn’t take away from anything the Mystics have accomplished this season; they have a top-tier defense and All-Star caliber talent between Sonia Citron, Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen. Washington will be a tough out, but its offense (101.5 offensive rating, 14th in the WNBA) is the limiting factor that will prevent a deeper postseason run.  —D.F.

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