Midseason Awards Watch, MVP Predictions As WNBA Heads Into All-Star Weekend

Two awards seem to have already been decided. Can anyone catch up in the second half of the season?

Can anyone catch up with A’ja Wilson for MVP? | Lucas Peltier/Imagn Images

The league has descended upon Chicago for All-Star weekend, which means we’re about to see the best of the best face off in Friday’s skills contests and Saturday’s All-Star Game. 

With that in mind, what better time than now to evaluate the various races for end-of-season awards? There’s still a lot of games left to play, but a few of these titles seem to have some very clear frontrunners. 

Can anyone beat A’ja Wilson for MVP? 

Emma Baccellieri: A’ja Wilson is the (very, very clear) frontrunner now, but there’s still plenty of basketball left to play. Paige Bueckers, Caitlin Clark and Olivia Miles are on the periphery of the conversation here, and I think any of them might be able to push herself into more serious contention with a monster stretch run. (Also in the realm of possibility: Breanna Stewart has been doing an awful lot for the beleaguered Liberty. If she steps it up even more over the next few months, and that helps them right the ship, Stewie could easily be in talks for her third MVP.) But it would take a phenomenal few weeks from any of these players to grab this one from Wilson. She leads the league in scoring (again) and win shares (again). No player in the league is quite so critical to her team: Wilson also leads the WNBA in usage percentage. There’s certainly room for other players to make it a debate. But there isn’t very much.

Dan Falkenheim: I agree with Emma, and the short answer is probably not. Wilson does have one more ace up her sleeve—I’ll escort myself out for that one—to help make her MVP case: the race for the league’s single-season scoring record. Kelsey Mitchell currently has 629 total points to Wilson’s 626. Even if her point per game average dips from 26.1 to 24.0, Wilson would be on track to outpace Mitchell and re-set the record with a full game to spare. (The extra four games this season help.) That should provide the antidote to any potential voter fatigue, and we’ve made it this far without mentioning Wilson’s prowess on the defensive end. No other MVP candidate besides Stewie comes close to Wilson in that regard. 

Blake Silverman: I’m with Dan and Emma, Wilson is the clear MVP as things currently stand. Of Wilson’s four MVP seasons, she’s in the midst of a better year compared to all but one: her incredible 2024 campaign when she averaged 26.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 4.4 stocks (steals plus blocks) per game. This year, she’s at 26.1 points, 9.5 boards and 3.6 stocks a night. Of all the other candidates, I am intrigued by Miles’s case. Minnesota’s star rookie has been the best player on the league’s best team thus far. She should run away with the Rookie of the Year award (more on that momentarily), but the season she’s having goes far beyond comparison to her rookie class. Napheesa Collier’s recent return could eat into Miles’s scoring numbers the rest of the way, but if she continues at her current pace and the Lynx remain atop the WNBA, there’s at least a case there. A guard hasn’t won MVP since Diana Taurasi did in 2009—this likely isn’t the year, but Miles has had an MVP-type season so far.

Can anyone beat Olivia Miles as ROY? 

Falkenheim: No. That’s not to take anything away from Azzi Fudd, who’s been having a special season on the defensive end of the floor and could make some noise with a lights-out three-point shooting stretch to end the year. Simply put, Miles has been having a season for the ages. She generated 840 points in her first 25 games, which is more than any WNBA rookie ever outside of Clark. (Points generated are a player’s points plus the points scored off their assists.) She has stepped in as the engine of the league’s best team, which will get even better with Collier back in the fold, and she hasn’t looked back. Miles also seems to have the it factor, too, and she has anecdotally drawn in non-WNBA types as viewers. Considering what she’s done already, it’s hard to see anyone leapfrogging her in the Rookie of the Year race.

Silverman: Nope, Miles is the only answer.

Who is your most improved player so far? 

Clare Brennan: Jessica Shepard. The criteria for these end-of-season awards always somewhat depend on who is voting. For instance, is it really fair to compare Shepard’s last season with the Lynx, when she started just 12 games, to this season, when she is integral to the Wings’ operation, starting in 26 games? I say yes. The 29-year-old has been given more to do than in any of her five previous seasons in the league, and she has risen to the occasion. A player can be allocated a new role, but how they handle that assignment is another story. And Shepard has shown parts of her game that haven’t been evident until her stint in Dallas. She is averaging 14.8 points and 11.9 rebounds per game—well beyond her 2025 stat line of 8.0 points and 7.3 rebounds per game—while helping the Wings become legitimate contenders. 

Falkenheim: Kaitlyn Chen. I don’t disagree with Clare’s choice, but I do think, relatively, Chen has taken one of the biggest steps forward out of anyone in the league. Her field goal percentage has improved by more than 50%, from 38% last year to 57.5% this season. She has nearly tripled (!) her points per 100 possessions from 10.4 to 28.1. (Some of that is due to increased usage, but talent begets usage after all.) Speaking of usage, she has also maintained her turnovers per 100 possessions despite being involved far more. One last stat, I promise: Only Kelsey Plum, Bueckers and Natisha Hiedeman have shot better within five feet of the basket than Chen this season. Put simply, Chen has attacked the basket at will and is a major reason why the Valkyries’ bench can be so dangerous. 

Silverman: Marina Mabrey. Similar to Clare’s point, it’s difficult to put this award in a fair context with ample team and role changes across the league. In Mabrey’s case, she did switch teams—landing with the Tempo in the expansion draft—but her role has stayed pretty consistent despite the change in location. She’s averaged less minutes per game compared to last year (29.4 to 31.5), but her scoring has jumped a whopping 6.6 points a night from last season in Connecticut. At the break, Mabrey is averaging 21.0 points per game, which is a career-high total by a mile. She tied Liz Cambage’s single-game record with an incredible 53 points in a win over the Sparks on June 25 when Mabrey drained nine three-pointers. Mabrey has reached another level in Toronto and earned her first career All-Star nod in the process. She carried a big offensive burden on a Sun team in its first season without Alyssa Thomas last year. She shoulders that same responsibility with the expansion Tempo, but she’s done so in a much more efficient manner.

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