Braves-Phillies MLB National League Division Series Betting Preview

Betting analysis of the MLB National League division series between the second-seeded Braves and sixth-seeded Phillies.

The Atlanta Braves strut into the 2022 postseason with a World Series title on their resume and a better overall roster than last season. The length of the lineup and ceiling is much higher than the Philadelphia Phillies. In addition, the Braves have a shutdown bullpen, plus depth to their starting rotation. Their most important question is if and when Spencer Strider will pitch in the postseason. Philadelphia didn’t play well over their final 20 games (7-13), as their batters struggled to produce runs (22) in 11 of their losses. The Phillies can only go as far as Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola can take them. Atlanta holds a significant edge if games are close after the sixth inning.

SI Sportsbook Game 1 Money Line
Atlanta Braves (-188) vs.Philadelphia Phillies (+155)

(AP Photo/Hakim Wright Sr.)

• Max Fried went 2-2 last year in the playoffs with a 4.23 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 27.2 innings. His arm was much more helpful in the postseason in 2020 (3.04 ERA)
• Atlanta won the World Series title without Ronald Acuna last season. Acuna only hit .217 in 2020 in the playoffs over 46 at-bats with 10 runs, one home run, three RBI, and three steals.
• Matt Olson is 4-for-28 in his career in the postseason with two home runs and three RBI.
• Austin Riley hit .277 over 65 at-bats with seven runs, two home runs, and eight RBI in the playoff in 2021.
• Kyle Wright has one disaster start in the postseason (seven runs and seven baserunners over two-thirds of an inning). However, he dazzled in the NLDC (no runs over six innings with seven strikeouts) in 2020 with a respectable relief appearance last season (one run over 4.2 innings with three strikeouts).
• Charlie Morton went 5-2 over his last 10 starts in the postseason with a 2.51 ERA and 58 strikeouts over 46.2 innings.
• Bryce Harper hit .217 over his 83 playoff at-bats, with six home runs and 11 RBI.
• With Boston in 2021, Kyle Schwarber hit .205 with eight runs, three home runs, and six RBI over 44 at-bats in the postseason.
• Aaron Nola made his playoff debut this year against the St. Louis Cardinals (no runs over 6.2 innings with six strikeouts).
• Zack Wheeler also appeared this year in the postseason for the first time (no runs over 6.1 innings with four strikeouts).

Atlanta Braves

Over the first two months this season, the Braves went 23-27 while being outscored 207 to 223. Once the calendar hit June, Atlanta dominated its competition over its final 112 contests (78-34 with a winning percentage of .696). They went 55-26 at home with a slight edge over the Philadelphia Phillies (11-8) and runs scored (88-55) in their matchups. The Braves had a career season out of Dansby Swanson that offset a subpar showing from Ronald Acuna (.266/71/15/50/29), who wasn’t himself due to a slower-than-expected recovery from his torn ACL. In addition, Atlanta has supreme help from three unsuspecting players (Michael Harris, Spencer Strider, and Kyle Wright).

Pitching Stats
• 6th in MLB in ERA (3.46)
• 2nd in strikeouts (1,554)
• 4th in bullpen ERA (3.03)

Batting Stats
• 3rd in runs (789)
• 2nd in home runs (243)
• 15th in steals (87)
• 9th in batting average (.253)
• 10th in on-base percentage (.317)

Top Three Hitters
Austin Riley – .273 with 90 runs, 38 home runs, 93 RBI, and 2 steals
Matt Olson – .240 with 86 runs, 34 home runs, and 103 RBI
Dansby Swanson – .277 with 99 runs, 25 home runs, 96 RBI, and 18 steals

Top Three Pitchers
Spencer Strider –11-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 202 strikeouts over 132.1 innings
Max Fried – 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA and 170 strikeouts over 185.1 innings
Kyle Wright – 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 174 strikeouts over 180.1 innings

Closer
Kenley Jansen – 5-2 with 41 saves, 3.38 ERA, and 85 strikeouts over 64 IP

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia advanced to the postseason's second round by sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals in two games. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola combined to pitch 13 shutout innings, and Zach Eflin finished off the two wins with one run and five baserunners allowed over two innings with one strikeout. The top five batters in the Phillies’ lineup only had three hits over 36 at-bats. Bryce Harper had their only home run.

Pitching Stats
• 18th in ERA (3.97)
• 10th in strikeouts (1,423)
• 23rd in bullpen ERA (4.27)

Batting Stats
• 7th in runs (747)
• 6th in home runs (205)
• 5th in steals (105)
• 8th in batting average (.253)
• 9th in on-base percentage (.317)

Top Three Hitters
Bryce Harper – .286 with 63 runs, 18 home runs, 65 RBI, and 11 steals
Kyle Schwarber – .218 with 100 runs, 46 home runs, 94 RBI, and 10 steals
J.T. Realmuto – .276 with 75 runs, 22 home runs, 84 RBI, and 21 steals

Top Three Pitchers
Aaron Nola – 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA and 235 strikeouts over 205.0 innings
Zack Wheeler – 12-7 with a 2.82 and 163 strikeouts over 153.0 innings
Ranger Suarez – 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA and 129 strikeouts over 155.1 innings

Closer
Zach Eflin – 3-5 with 1 save, a 4.04 ERA, and 65 strikeouts over 75.2 innings

Betting Prediction

Philadelphia may steal a game or two due to their bats, but their questionable bullpen will let them down in some big spots. The Braves bring experience to the table with the bullpen to shorten games. I expect Atlanta’s batters to come through in the clutch while having the chemistry to make a deep postseason run.

Winner: Atlanta Braves