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College Football

Comparing college football national title odds to real-life happenings

Photo: Tom Pennington/Getty Images

It’s the middle of July, which means the weather is nice, people are on vacation and SEC Media Days are somehow right around the corner. It also means the end of the college football offseason is finally approaching, and it gives us an excuse to forecast the coming successes and failures of programs across the nation.

Bovada recently listed the odds of 51 teams winning the 2014 national championship, from varying degrees of plausibility (Florida State) to, well, Rutgers. We’ve taken the liberty of comparing some of those odds to the probabilities of various real-life happenings below.

*Note: The odds of these real-life equivalencies are in no way perfect, nor are they assuredly scientific by any means. They are rough approximations using estimates from across the Internet, and that’s good enough for us.

Florida State: 11/2
Real-life equivalent: Odds Super Bowl MVP mentions fans first in his speech

Nothing earth-shattering here. Something we could all see happening. Plus, Florida State would probably beat the Jacksonville Jaguars by three touchdowns.

Alabama: 6/1
Real-life equivalent: Odds of believing your tattoo was a mistake

Bear Bryant taught me the meaning of pride. My pledge of “allegence” is Roll Tide.

Oregon: 8/1
Real-life equivalent: Odds of eventually developing arthritis

The best way to prevent arthritis is through regular stretching, activity and hydration. The Ducks might be safe.

Ohio State: 10/1
Real-life equivalent: Odds of being left-handed

Braxton Miller is right-handed. Ohio State is most certainly not winning the title.

Oklahoma: 12/1
Real-life equivalent: Odds of getting the flu this year

Told you to get that flu shot before the state fair, Bob Stoops.

Michigan: 50/1
Real-life equivalent: Odds of a child having a peanut allergy

One of these things is becoming increasingly more common. One is not.

Nebraska: 50/1
Real-life equivalent: Odds of living to be 100

Buckle up, Nebraska fans. Bo Pelini could have another 50-plus years at the helm.

Iowa: 100/1
Real-life equivalent: Odds of being born a twin

Can you imagine how expensive two Kirk Ferentzs would be?

Tennessee: 100/1
Real-life equivalent: Odds of being on a plane with a drunken pilot

This is downright terrifying.

Oregon State: 200/1
Real-life equivalent: Odds of writing a New York Times bestseller

Sean Mannion (probably) won’t write the next Sometimes A Great Notion. He is an underrated quarterback, though, and In-N-Out is delicious.

West Virginia: 250/1
Real-life equivalent: Odds of your child being a genius

This becomes far more likely if your child drinks Red Bull instead of milk.

Rutgers: 1000/1
Real-life equivalent: Odds of being struck by lightning

OK, fine, the odds of being struck by lighting are actually 3,000 to 1. But Gary Nova is still the Scarlet Knights' projected starting quarterback, and he threw six interceptions in a loss to Kent State in 2012.

The full list of national championship odds:

Florida State: 11/2
Alabama: 6/1
Oregon: 8/1
Auburn: 9/1
Ohio State: 10/1
Oklahoma: 12/1
Georgia: 16/1
UCLA: 16/1
LSU: 18/1
Michigan State: 25/1
South Carolina: 25/1
USC: 25/1
Baylor: 28/1
Stanford: 33/1
Wisconsin: 33/1
Florida: 40/1
Mississippi: 40/1
Notre Dame: 40/1
Texas: 40/1
Michigan: 50/1
Nebraska: 50/1
Arizona State: 66/1
Clemson: 66/1
Missouri: 66/1
Texas A&M: 66/1
Miami: 75/1
Oklahoma State: 75/1
Arizona: 100/1
Iowa: 100/1
Kansas State: 100/1
North Carolina: 100/1
Tennessee: 100/1
Texas Tech: 100/1
Washington: 100/1
BYU: 150/1
Mississippi State: 150/1
Virginia Tech: 150/1
Oregon State: 200/1
Cincinnati: 250/1
Louisville: 250/1
West Virginia: 250/1
Arkansas: 300/1
TCU: 300/1
Boise State: 500/1
Boston College: 500/1
California: 500/1
Georgia Tech: 500/1
Pittsburgh: 500/1
South Florida: 500/1
UCF: 500/1
Rutgers: 1000/1

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