Washington Commanders 2022 Fantasy Outlook: New Name, New Quarterback
Washington lost the “Football Team” surname over the winter and became the Commanders. By any name, they went 14-19 over the past two seasons, extending their streak with a losing record to five years (31-50). Carson Wentz takes over the quarterback job after a lackluster end to 2021 with the Colts. Running back Antonio Gibson and wide receiver Terry McLaurin have bright futures, and Washington added some offensive depth (RB Brian Robinson and WR Jahan Dotson) in this year’s draft. The development of WR Dyami Brown and healthy seasons from WR Curtis Samuel and TE Logan Thomas are critical. For Washington to have a competitive season, its defense must return to 2020 status (top-five ranking).
Offense
With injuries and below-par options at quarterback, Washington tried to run the ball as much as possible in 2021. They threw the ball 53.6% of the time with a top 10 team in rushing attempts (477). Wentz should work as a winning game manager while running a balanced offense.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz – click here for fantasy projections
Other Options: Taylor Heinicke, Sam Howell, Cole Kelley
Running Backs
Washington’s running backs gained 2,549 combined yards last season with 17 touchdowns and 103 catches. Their backs were heavily involved in the passing game in 2020 (120/848/2) and 2021 (103/814/5).
Antonio Gibson – click here for fantasy projections
J.D. McKissic
Washington gave McKissic a high-volume pass-catching opportunity (110 targets) in 2020, leading to 80 catches for 589 yards and two scores. He had five or more catches in nine games. McKissic gained only 7.4 yards per catch, with three contests resulting in more than 60 yards receiving. When given two starts with Gibson injured, he produced two steady games on early downs (11/68 and 13/51). McKissic only has two career rushing touchdowns on his 173 carries.
He missed the final six games last season with a concussion issue. McKissic finished with 43 catches for 397 yards and two scores on 53 targets over 11 weeks, highlighted by five games (5/83, 5/44/1, 8/65, 8/83, 5/26/1). He rushed for 212 yards and two touchdowns on 48 carries.
Fantasy outlook: When Washington falls behind early, McKissic is at his best. Last year he was on the field for about 40% of the time while finishing 37th in running back scoring (128) in PPR leagues. However, McKissic should see a drop-off in his chances in the run game with Brian Robinson added to the team and Antonio Gibson possibly seeing more targets. At best, 50 catches with 600 combined yards and short scores.
Brian Robinson
Robinson worked his way into a high-volume role in his fifth season at Alabama. He finished with 306 touches, leading to 1,639 combined yards with 16 touchdowns and 35 catches. Over his first four years, Robinson gained a combined 1,511 yards with 15 touchdowns and 17 catches. Last season, he didn’t score a touchdown over his final five games while struggling in three matchups (16/71, 16/55, 22/68) in the run game.
There is something to be said for a running back gaining experience in touches. Robinson is a power back with the ability to make yards after contact. He runs with patience while having the drive to cut fast into daylight at the line of scrimmage. When asked to pass block, Robinson understands his role plus stays in tune with his quarterback to become a late passing option out of the backfield. His improved opportunity last year should only make him better in the NFL.
Fantasy outlook: After landing in Washington, his price point moved to pick 188 in the NFFC as the 59th-ranked running back. I expect him to be the handcuff to Gibson on early downs with a minimal role without an injury.
Other Options: Jaret Patterson, Jonathan Williams, Reggie Bonnafon
Wide Receivers
The Commanders rewarded their wideouts with their highest opportunity in all areas in 2021 despite playing with a backup quarterback for most of the season. The injury to TE Logan Thomas also helped their chances. In 2022, Washington upgraded their starting quarterback and the wide receiving corps looks better.
Terry McLaurin – click here for fantasy projections
Curtis Samuel
It took four seasons for Samuel to shine in the NFL. Carolina drafted him in the second round in 2017 after a dominant season at Ohio State (1,636 combined yards with 15 touchdowns and 97 catches). He worked in a split role at running back and receiver.
His catch rate (55.1) came up short over his first three NFL seasons before pushing to an elite level in 2020 (79.4). He finished with a career-high in catches (77), receiver yards (851) and rushing yards (200). Samuel had a quiet start to the year over five games (19/246) while also missing Week 6 with a knee issue. Over his final 10 starts, he gained 805 yards with five touchdowns and 58 catches (16.9 FPPG).
In his first year with Washington, Samuel gained only 38 yards with six catches while missing 12 games with groin and hamstring issues.
Fantasy outlook: With a lack of stats from last season, fantasy drafters have almost written Samuel off in the early draft season in the NFFC (ADP of 205 as the 77th wideout selected). In 2020, he ranked 24th in wide receiver scoring (212.1 fantasy points) in PPR leagues. Samuel should operate as the Commanders’ WR2 with a chance at 60 catches for 800 yards with about five touchdowns.
Jahan Dotson
Dotson showed a progression in each of his four seasons (13/203, 27/488/5, 52/884/8, 91/1,182/12) at Penn State. Last year he worked more as a possession-type receiver (13.0 yards per catch) than in his first three years (15.6, 18.1, 17.0). Dotson had two dominating games (11/242/3 and 8/137/2) with success as well against Ohio State (11/127).
Dotson should transition into a complete player with more bulk and strength. He runs good routes with the speed and quickness to beat a defense over the top or in the open field. Dotson takes a hit when facing press coverage while needing to prove he can win heavily contested passes. Dotson comes into the league at 5’11” and 185 pounds, which invites some durability concerns and questions about his value over the middle of the field.
Fantasy Outlook: His success last year and foundation skill set gives Dotson a chance to be a productive WR2 or WR3 in the NFL this season. His ADP (163) in the early draft season in the NFFC priced him as the 65th wide receiver off the table. Dotson has a chance to catch 50 passes for 750 yards with a handful of scores.
Dyami Brown
Brown gained over 1,000 yards in his final two seasons (51/1,034/12 and 55/1,099/8) at North Carolina, with an impressive 20.1 yards per catch. His catch rate (60.2) needs work, but the distance of his targets was part of his weakness.
He gives Washington an explosive deep threat option who will have limited value over the short areas of the field. Any value close to the line of scrimmage comes from scripted plays where his speed can create winning seams. Brown battles his hands in tight coverage, leading to fewer chances.
In his rookie season, he caught 12 of his 25 targets for 165 yards.
Other Options: Cam Sims, Dax Brown, Antonio Gandy-Golden
Tight Ends
The Commanders gave their tight ends about 19% of their completions over the past two years. They finished with a step back in catches (68) and targets (98) while finishing with a higher catch rate (69.4).
Logan Thomas
After kicking around the NFL for four seasons from 2014-19, Thomas broke through for a career season (72/670/6 on 109 targets). Over the first 11 games, he managed only 34 catches for 328 yards and four touchdowns on 60 targets. Thomas gained fewer than 40 yards in eight of those games while offering playable value when scoring (4/37/1, 3/42/1, 4/60/1, 4/20/1).
The change to Alex Smith at quarterback led to him becoming a relevant fantasy option over the final six weeks (43/416/2 on 58 targets). His best success came in Week 13 (9/98/1) and Week 15 (13/101).
Thomas missed 11 games last season with a hamstring issue and a year-ending torn ACL in his left knee. He had surgery in mid-December, giving him a chance to be ready for opening day. Thomas finished with 18 catches for 196 yards and three touchdowns. He failed to gain over 50 yards in any matchup.
John Bates
Washington took a dance with TE John Bates in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, his quickness doesn’t create too many wins over the short areas of the field, leading to minimal separation. However, when given a free run, he does have the speed to win deep in the secondary. His hands project well while needing to get stronger to handle his blocking responsibilities.
In his rookie season, Bates caught 20 passes for 249 yards and one score.
Other Options: Cole Turner, Sammis Reyes, Curtis Hodges
Kicker
Joey Slye
Despite success in 2020 in field goals (29-for-36), with five of his misses coming from 50 yards or more, Slye kicked for three different teams last season. He made 23 of his 25 field goals, but he did miss four of his 22 extra-point tries. In his rookie season in 2019, his leg was impressive from long range (8-for-11), but Slye only converted on five of his 10 chances from 50 yards or more over the last two years.
Fantasy outlook: Washington should play well defensively while stalling on many drives in the red zone. This combination gives Slye a chance to offer matchup value while ranking in the bottom quarter of the league at kicker.
Coaching
Washington brought in Ron Rivera to run the franchise in 2020 after a solid run over eight seasons with the Panthers (76-63-1), including four playoff appearances. His highlight year came in 2015 (15-1 with a loss to Denver in the Super Bowl). Washington won the NFC East in his first season despite a 7-9 record while improving on both sides of the ball. The Commanders slipped to 7-10 last season. Rivera worked as a defensive coordinator for the Bears and the Chargers over six seasons while having 25 years of coaching experience in the NFL.
Scott Turner returns for a third season as Washington's offensive coordinator, a role he held for five seasons with the Panthers and Vikings. His offense finished 23rd in points scored (335). In addition, the Commanders climbed to 21st in yards allowed.
After sitting out two years after losing the Raiders head coaching job, Jack Del Rio took over Washington’s defense in 2020. They moved from the bottom of the league rankings to second in yards allowed and fourth in points given up, but he failed to repeat last season – 434 points allowed (25th) and 22nd in yards allowed.
Over 12 seasons as a head coach, Del Rio went 93-94 with three playoff appearances. His best success came in 2005 (12-4), 2007 (11-5) and 2016 (12-4). In 2000, he helped the Ravens win the Super Bowl as the linebackers coach. Del Rio has 22 years of experience coaching in the NFL.
Free Agency
Washington lost G Brandon Scherff to the Jaguars. He played well in both run and pass blocking last season while missing six games. The top addition to their offensive line was G Andrew Norwell and G Trai Turner. Norwell projects to start. DT Tim Settle signed with the Bills.
Draft
The Commanders added five offensive players in the 2022 NFL Draft – WR Jahan Dotson (1.16), RB Brian Robinson (3.34), QB Sam Howell (5.1), TE Cole Turner (5.6) and G Chris Paul (7.9). They invested in DT Phidarian Mathis (2.15), S Percy Butler (4.8) and CB Christian Holmes (7.19) for their defense.
Offensive Line
Washington jumped to 12th in rushing yards (2,061), but they scored 13 times on the ground. Their runners delivered 20 yards or more on eight plays while gaining 4.3 yards per rush.
The Commanders inched to 22nd in passing yards (3,746) with 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Their offensive line allowed 43 sacks.
LT Charles Leno excelled in pass blocking while drifting below the league average in the run game. He has been about the same player since 2016. RT Samuel Cosmi missed eight games in his rookie season. His best play came in run blocking. The rest of their offensive line ranks below the league average. I don’t see a high ceiling with this group with questionable depth.
Defense
Washington moved up to eighth in rushing yards allowed (1,755). Ball carriers gained 4.1 yards per rush with 14 touchdowns plus eight runs over 20 yards.
The Commanders plummeted to 29th in passing yards allowed (4,333) with 34 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Quarterbacks beat them for 51 plays of 20 yards or more while their defense picked up 38 sacks.
DE Chase Young finished with only 1.5 sacks last year. He missed the final eight games with a torn ACL in his right knee. Washington needs him to develop into an impact pass rusher to rebound from a down defensive year. Their defensive line is loaded with talent, and LB Jamin Davis should only improve. Despite delivering 142 tackles in 2021, LB Cole Holcomb didn’t excel in any area. CB Kendall Fuller plays well in coverage with minimal damage in touchdowns allowed. The rest of their secondary lacks playmakers while expecting to be about league average.
I respect the overall structure of the Commanders’ defense to roster them as my second fantasy option if possible. The passing window will be much shorter if Washington gets after the quarterback, leading to sacks and turnovers.
2022 FANTASY OUTLOOKS
AFC East: Bills | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets
AFC North: Ravens | Bengals | Browns | Steelers
AFC South: Texans | Colts | Jaguars | Titans
AFC West: Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers
NFC East: Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Commanders
NFC North: Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings
NFC South: Falcons | Panthers | Saints | Buccaneers
NFC West: Cardinals | Rams | 49ers | Seahawks
