Dallas Cowboys 2022 Fantasy Outlook: Ezekiel Elliott vs. Tony Pollard
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Looking back at 2021, the Dallas Cowboys had the best offense in football, but none of their skill players had an elite season. WR Amari Cooper (68/865/8) fell short of expectations, and WR Michael Gallup (35/445/2) missed eight games. WR CeeDee Lamb (79/1,102/6) improved slightly, but he failed to post a difference-maker year (19th ranked wideout in PPR formats) despite his preseason hype. RB Ezekiel Elliott gained over 55 rushing yards only once over his final 11 starts, leading to an RB2 feel in fantasy scoring (253.10). RB Tony Pollard helped off the bench while looking more explosive at running back. The only overachiever was TE Dalton Schultz (78/808/4). QB Dak Prescott had boom-or-bust stats in half of his games, with regression in his value as a runner (48/146/1).
Dallas brings back most of the same nucleus on offense except for losing Cooper and WR Cedrick Wilson. So the coin toss for fantasy drafters is whether Elliott is fading off into the sunset, or does he dig down for one more elite impact year? And will the additions of WR James Washington and WR Jalen Tolbert help the Cowboys soar to new heights in their quest for their first Super Bowl title since 1995?
I know one thing for sure; the Cowboys locked up two impact defenders (LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevor Diggs) over the past two drafts.
OFFENSE
The Cowboys were one of two teams to gain over 7,000 yards last year. They want to blend run and pass while leaning on their ball-control offense when playing from the lead. With a rebound in play on defense, Dallas may rely more on rushing the ball in 2022.
QUARTERBACKS
Dak Prescott – click here for fantasy projections
Other options: Cooper Rush, Will Grier, Ben DiNucci
RUNNING BACKS
The growth in the Cowboys’ offense led to their running backs finishing with a three-year high in overall production (2,534 combined yards with 16 touchdowns and 92 catches on 508 touches). As a result, they averaged 25.96 fantasy points in PPR leagues with just under 30 chances per game. The rebound in yards per rush (4.76) came solely from the explosiveness of Tony Pollard (5.5 yards).
Ezekiel Elliott – click here for fantasy projections
Tony Pollard
Dallas gave Pollard the best opportunity (169 touches) of his career, but he did leave some stats on the table by missing two games with a December left foot injury (plantar fascia). Over his final three games (including the postseason), he struggled to run the ball (15/57) with seven catches for 77 yards. Pollard broke loose in Week 2 (140 combined yards with one score and three catches) while gaining over 100 combined yards in one other matchup (14/75 and four catches for 28 yards). From the Cowboys’ second game to Week 15 (12 contests), he averaged 12.2 touches, leading to 905 yards with two touchdowns and 30 catches or 11.04 fantasy points in PPR formats.
Fantasy outlook: In early June in the NFFC, Pollard has an ADP of 94 as the 33rd running back selected. At the very least, he looks mispriced by about 10 backs when adding his final 2021 ranking (28th) and possible finish with an entire season of games. Pollard seems poised to gain over 1,400 combined yards with 50+ catches and a handful of scores if the Cowboys get him about 13 chances a game. Protect your interest, and secure Pollard as a handcuff to Elliott—or better yet, tee up the potential breakthrough difference-maker.
Rico Dowdle
After flashing upside in his freshman season (819 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 15 catches on 148 touches), Dowdle wandered his way through his through the next three years (295 rushes for 1,403 yards with 10 touchdowns plus 47 catches for 428 yards and two scores) at South Carolina.
He missed four games in 2016 with a battle with a hernia issue that required surgery, a broken leg in 2017, and a couple of games in 2019 with a knee issue.
Dowdle has just below running back average speed (4.54 40-yard dash) with decent size (5"11" and 215 lbs.). He runs with some patience while using his eyes and pocket feel to pick the right spot to turn up the jets.
When in the open field, Dowdle shows the ability to make defenders miss either with fight or wiggle. His vision plays up while owning change of direction value. Dowdle’s downside risk is carrying the ball loosely in the open field and his injury resume. The Cowboys signed him as an unrestricted free agent in 2020.
A broken hip led to him missing all of last year. He gained only 24 yards on seven carries in 2020.
Other options: JaQuan Hardy, Malik Davis, Aaron Shampklin
WIDE RECEIVERS
Over the past three years, the wide receiver position has been a fantasy gold mine in Dallas. They averaged 15 catches for 205 yards and 1.27 touchdowns over this span (49 games) while accounting for about 70% of the Cowboys’ passing yards.
CeeDee Lamb – click here for fantasy projections
Michael Gallup
2021 didn’t go well for Gallup. A calf injury in Week 1 led to seven missed games. Over the next eight matchups, he caught 31 passes for 409 yards and two touchdowns on 55 targets with only two weeks of value (5/106 and 5/36/1). A torn ACL in his left knee ended his season in early January, but he didn’t have surgery until February 10th. Dallas thought enough of his game to sign him to a five-year, $62.5 million contract in mid-March.
Fantasy outlook: I don't expect Gallup to be at full strength until the middle of October. Also, I'm never a fan of investing in players coming off significant injuries. His ADP (128) in the NFFC in early June ranks him as the 51st wide receiver. Gallup needs to score about 140.00 fantasy points in PPR formats to beat his draft value. I would be happy with a 50/700/5 season, which seems attainable with a minimum of 12 complete games.
Jalen Tolbert
Dallas added Tolbert in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He played well over his final two seasons (64/1,085/8 and 82/1,474/8) at South Alabama. Tolbert gained 17.6 yards per catch in his college career with a low catch rate (55.5). His release and route running project well, pointing to early success in his career.
Fantasy outlook: Based on style of play, Tolbert should work as the cover for Michael Gallup early in the year. He’ll challenge a defense in the deep passing game while also having the foundation skill set to shine over the short areas of the field. Tolbert comes off the board as the 76th wide receiver in the NFFC with an ADP of 199. I’m intrigued by his potential, and the coach-speak over the summer should drive his fantasy value. Possible 60 catches for 800 yards and some value in scoring.
James Washington
Over four seasons with the Steelers, Washington had a few intriguing games (6/90/1, 3/98/1, 4/111/1, 4/68/1, and 2/80/1), but he rarely had more than five targets. His best output came in 2019 (44/735/3 on 80 targets) while scoring a career-high five touchdowns the following year.
Coming into the NFL, Washington had three stellar seasons at Oklahoma State (53/1,08710, 71/1,380/10, and 74/1,549/13). Pittsburgh drafted him in the second round in 2018.
Fantasy outlook: Washington should have every opportunity to win the WR3 job for the Cowboys this year. He has the wheels to test a defense deep. His ADP (234) in the NFFC puts him in the free-agent pool in many leagues. However, Washington is only a flier until he wins more playing time and targets.
Other options: Noah Brown, Simi Fehoko, T.J. Vasher, Brandon Smith
TIGHT ENDS
Dak Prescott looked to his tight ends often last season, leading to three-year highs in catches (96), receiving yards (962), touchdowns (10), and targets (130). The emergence of Dalton Schultz should lead to another productive year for the Cowboys' tight ends.
Dalton Schultz
In 2021, Schultz produced five playable games (6/45, 6/80/2, 6/58/1, 6/79, and 5/79) over the first six weeks. He finished the year as the third-highest scoring tight end (78/808/8 on 104 targets – 208.80 fantasy points in PPR leagues). Schultz had a floor of six catches in nine of his 18 games with better production at home (47/556/5 on 64 targets).
Fantasy outlook: The best part about Schultz is that defenses have more issues to worry about than shutting him down. Even with success last year, he ranks seventh in the early draft season in the NFFC with an ADP of 75. Schultz should finish with a slight regression (75/750/5) as a top-six tight end.
Other options: Jake Ferguson, Sean McKeon, Jeremy Sprinkle
KICKER
Jonathan Garibay
Garibay played in 15 games at Texas Tech, making 23 of his 27 field goals (85.2%). However, they gave him only two chances from 50 yards or more (one successful kick) while going 49-for-50 in his extra-point tries in 2021. Dallas scored 64 touchdowns and created 35 field goal chances.
Fantasy outlook: The Cowboys should bring in another kicker over the summer, making Garibay only a placeholder until he proves his worth on the field. The Dallas kicker has an excellent chance to rank in the top 10 in 2022.
COACHING
Over his first two seasons with the Cowboys, Mike McCarthy went 18-15. He had a successful 11-year run (114-61-1) with the Packers, leading to nine postseason trips and a Super Bowl win in 2020. Over his final two years with Green Bay, he went 11-16-1. Dallas made playoffs three times over the six years before McCarthy arrived while compiling a 56-40 record. Last season Dallas lost in the first round of the playoffs.
The Cowboys had the best offense in 2021, leading to 530 points scored (135 more than in 2020).
Kellen Moore gets a third season to run the Cowboys’ offense. He went from backup quarterback from 2012 to 2017 with the Lions and the Cowboys to a quarterback’s coach in 2018. Moore starts the year at age 33, putting on a path to a head coaching job down the road.
Their defense improved to seventh in points allowed (358) and 19th in yards allowed. Dallas shaved off 115 points from last season.
Regression on defense led to the Cowboys hiring Dan Quinn to be their defensive coordinator in 2021. Over five-plus seasons as the head coach of the Falcons, he went 43-42 with a trip to the Super Bowl in 2016 and another postseason appearance the following year. His defense helped the Seahawks win the Super Bowl in 2013. Quinn has been a coach since 2001.
FREE AGENCY
The Cowboys lost RT La’el Collins from their offensive line, leaving a void that needs to be fixed this season. LB Randy Gregory, WR Cedrick Wilson, C Connor Williams, and K Greg Zuerlein found new homes over the winter. Their top signings in the offseason were DE Dante Fowler and WR James Washington.
DRAFT
In this year's draft, the first two areas of need for the Cowboys were their offensive line (Tyler Smith – 1.24) and an edge pass rusher (Sam Williams – 2.24). Dallas added WR Jalen Tolbert (3.24), TE Jake Ferguson (4.24), and T Matt Waletzko (5.12) with their next three picks before shifting back to their defense (CB Daron Bland – 5.24, LB Damone Clark – 5.33, DT John Ridgeway – 5.35, and LB Devin Harper – 6.14).
OFFENSIVE LINE
Dallas moved to ninth in rushing yards (2,119) with 15 touchdowns and 11 runs over 20 yards. They averaged 27.8 rushes per game and 4.5 yards per carry.
The Cowboys improved in passing yards (4,963) with 40 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. They gained 7.7 yards per pass attempt, with 63 passes gaining 20 yards or more. Their offensive line allowed 33 sacks.
LT Tyron Smith and RG Zack Martin remain top players at their positions, but Smith continues to miss some games with injuries (20 over the past two years). C Tyler Biadasz improved to a league-average player in all areas in his sophomore season. The Cowboys added a top talent (Tyler Smith) to start at left guard in this year’s draft, leaving one questionable area (right tackle) to be improved this season. Their offensive line should rank in the top eight in 2022, as long as their best two players stay healthy.
DEFENSE
Dallas climbed to 16th in rushing yards allowed (1,918) with 13 touchdowns and 14 runs over 20 yards. They allowed 4.5 yards per rush.
Their pass defense slid to 20th in yards allowed (4,049) with 24 touchdowns and 26 interceptions. Dallas allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt with 41 sacks.
CB Trevor Diggs had an impressive 11 interceptions and 21 defended passes last season, but his gambling style led to receivers gaining over 1,000 yards with five scores against him. Diggs needs to find a balance when to jump routes or stay home in coverage. At the very least, he is one of the best defensive playmakers in the league.
LB Micah Parsons had the “it factor” in his rookie season, leading to 84 tackles and 13 sacks. He still needs work against the run, but his future is bright.
The Cowboys’ defensive line needs to improve defending the run and increase the pass rush. Dallas would love for LB Leighton Vander Esch to regain his rookie form (140 tackles in 2018). Their starting safeties support the run, but I sense some risk in coverage if the Cowboys’ secondary doesn’t get help with a strong pass rush.
The combination of Diggs and Parsons creates scoring chances, making the Cowboys' defense attractive. Dallas projects as a top-five fantasy defense, with work still needed in the real football world.
2022 FANTASY OUTLOOKS
AFC East: Bills | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets
AFC North: Ravens | Bengals | Browns | Steelers
AFC South: Texans | Colts | Jaguars | Titans
AFC West: Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers
NFC East: Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Commanders
NFC North: Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings
NFC South: Falcons | Panthers | Saints | Buccaneers
NFC West: Cardinals | Rams | 49ers | Seahawks
