Betting/Fantasy Impact: Brewers Trade Josh Hader to Padres
The Brewers traded stud closer Josh Hader to the Padres in exchange for closer Taylor Rogers, righty starter/reliever Dinelson Lamet and a pair of prospects in lefty pitcher Robert Gasser and outfielder Esteury Ruiz.
The MLB trade deadline looms large and brings with it deals aplenty. The deadline will pass at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday, August 2.
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Hader has been one of the best closers in baseball over the last five seasons. He leads the league in saves (29) and he’s been an All-Star every year.
He did have more than a few hiccups in July, allowing 13 runs and five homers. His rough stretch boosted his ERA from 1.05 to 4.24 and his FIP went from 1.72 to 3.47.
With dynamo reliever Devin Williams having another standout year with 66 strikeouts over 29 2/3 IP, Milwaukee decided it was time to move on from Hader, now 28 years old, as he is set to hit free agency after the 2023 season.
Hader should have plenty of chances for saves for Padres (57-46) team that is 2.5 games ahead for a wild card spot but 12 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
Rogers already had 35 save opportunities for San Diego.
That the Padres looked to upgrade from Rodgers should not be surprising.
Shawn Childs, our resident fantasy baseball guru, wrote in his most recent closer report that “Rogers had been one of the worst relievers in baseball … allowing 11 runs and 22 baserunners over 11.1 innings.”
Hader is a clear upgrade for a team that is still in the hunt for Nationals superstar Juan Soto. The Padres are one of the few teams with the prospect capital and young MLB talent that could potentially meet Washington’s sky-high demands.
It’s possible the Padres could land both Hader and Soto during the same deadline.
Mark J. Terrill/AP
While losing Hader hurts the Brewers, they’re fortunate to have a strong replacement in Williams. Williams made his first All-Star team this team.
Williams was already likely rostered in most fantasy leagues given his stellar numbers, but now he’s even more of an asset to secure a ton of saves in Hader’s absence. Williams already has six saves and will look to hold down the ninth inning for a Brewers team that is three games ahead of the Cardinals in the NL Central.
Rogers will likely slot behind Williams on the reliever depth chart, will allow him to settle down and contribute in the seventh and eighth innings. Perhaps with less pressure on Rogers to perform as he converted just 28 of 35 save opportunities (80%).
The Brewers also have a former closer in Brad Boxberger for the late innings.
While the Brewers downgraded their relief unit, they added an intriguing arm in Lamet and bolstered a lacking farm system.
Lamet has been a disaster over his last two seasons after a standout 2020 season and hasn’t quite been the same since spraining his UCL ahead of the 2021 season. Lamet is 0-1 with a 9.49 ERA spanning 13 outings (three starts) this season.
The Brewers have a strong reputation for pitching development and could be the right team to help Lamet get back on track. He likely is not fantasy relevant unless he claims a rotation spot, which could be tough if Freddy Peralta returns to Milwaukee soon.
The prospects in the deal, Gasser and Ruiz, likely won’t have much of an impact this season but come from a well-regarded system.
Gasser, contrary to what his name suggests, is a developing 23-year-old pitcher with an above-average fastball and slider. MLB.com had him as the Padres’ No. 7 prospect.
Ruiz, the Padres’ No. 28 prospect, has bounced around the minors and could project to contribute with speed on the base paths.
It seems rare that two teams in the thick of playoff runs are willing to deal, especially when it includes a player of Hader’s caliber.
SI MLB: Making Sense of the Brewers-Padres Trade
San Diego shores up one of its most glaring issues (bullpen) and is now better poised for a postseason push that can often come down to the final innings—even if its odds shifted in the opposite direction of how one would expect this deal to affect them.
San Diego began the day with +1400 odds to win the World Series and +900 odds to win the National League pennant at SI Sportsbook. The Padres are now +1700 to win the World Series and have the same NL odds, ranking fifth in the league.
The Brewers started the day at +2000 odds to win the World Series and +750 odds to win the World Series and moved up to +1900 odds to win the World Series and remain at +750 odds to win the National League, just ahead of the Padres.
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