How Theo Epstein can bring a long-awaited title to the Cubs
It appears that the Chicago Cubs are going to pry away Theo Epstein from the Red Sox to be their new general manager. Epstein, 37, was the face of the new breed of ultra-young GMs, handed the reins of the Red Sox in 2002 and producing two World Championships in nine seasons as their top executive. His 2004 team became the first Red Sox club since 1918 to win a World Series, assuring that he'd never need a wallet in any New England bar for the rest of his life.
Now his move to Chicago, which comes on the heels of the Red Sox' late-season collapse, the departure of manager Terry Francona and some vicious press coverage of both, gives Epstein a chance to be a hero to the game's other long-suffering fan base. The Cubs and Epstein have agreed on the details of a new contract; it's just a matter of the Cubs and Red Sox agreeing on player compensation for a GM who was signed through next year.
Once the deal is finalized, Epstein will inherit a much different situation than he did in 2002, when the Red Sox promoted him to be their general manager. Epstein got his job months before the release of
The current Cubs don't offer all that. This team is older, with more dead money and less building-block talent than the Red Sox had nine years ago. There's no one at the level of Ramirez or Martinez in this organization, and really, there are perhaps two, maybe three championship-caliber players to be found. The first is Starlin Castro, a 21-year-old shortstop coming off a season in which he led the NL in hits. He's raw, prone to silly mistakes in the field and silly swings at the plate, but Castro is, based on age, position and skill-set, one of the most valuable properties in baseball.
Epstein also inherits a good No. 2 starter in Matt Garza and a strong, if erratic, reliever in closer Carlos Marmol. There are some prospects here, if nothing the caliber of Lester and Youkilis. Outfielder Brett Jackson -- who is one of the players rumored as compensation for Epstein's services -- could step into rightfield next year. Bat-first catcher Wellington Castillo may push incumbent Genovany Soto aside as soon as 2012. There are some hard throwers who could improve the bullpen next year, like Chris Carpenter and Andrew Cashner, as well as talent buried deeper in the system like 2011 first-round pick Javier Baez and sixth-rounder Neftali Rosario. The rest of the roster consists of players in their 20s who are not good enough (Tyler Colvin, Darwin Barney, Randy Wells, Jeff Samadzija, Soto) and players in their 30s who are not young enough (Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano) to build a team around.
In 2003, Epstein could focus on the final 20 spots on the roster because he had a championship-caliber core. Here, he almost has to start over around Castro, Garza and a crop of nearly-ready players who don't have superstar upside.
Then again, there are some advantages. First of all, the Yankees don't play in the NL Central, and for that matter, neither do the Rays. If you could place teams on some absolute scale of quality, the level you need to reach to be successful in Epstein's new division is lower than what he needed to reach in the AL East. In the nine seasons Epstein was in Boston, seven NL Central teams outscored their opponents by at least 100 runs; just two have done so in the last six seasons. In that same time, 17 AL East teams have turned the trick. The AL East had as many +100 teams this year as the NL Central has had in the last six. The job of winning the division is simply easier running the Cubs than it is the Red Sox.
Epstein is also escaping one of the few teams that may have more bad contracts than do the Cubs. It's his own doing, of course, but the staggering amount of money due Carl Crawford, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka -- all of whom were lousy, injured or both in 2011 -- may tie the Sox' hands in the short term. Throw in megadeals for currently productive players like John Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez and it's not hard to see even John Henry saying, "Uncle," before reaching into his pocket for the next big free agent or trade acquisition. The Cubs are, famously, saddled with bad contracts for Alfonso Soriano ($57 million through 2014) and Carlos Zambrano ($19 million in 2012), but the load is lighter and only Soriano and Marmol ($9.8 million in 2013) are signed past '12.
The Cubs also have revenue -- and therefore payroll -- upside that the current Red Sox may have reached. According to
You don't make it all happen in one offseason, of course, but once Epstein is putting salads on his hot dogs, having pop with them and reacquainting himself with the letter "r", here's what he should be doing to put the Cubs on the path to their first National League pennant since 1945 and their first World Series title since 1908:
Let's be clear about this: Theo Epstein is one of the best general managers in the game, and he's going to put the Cubs in position to get back to, and win, the World Series. He surrounds himself with talented people, he is open to both sides of player evaluation -- scouting and statistical analysis -- and he's always willing to improve his own processes. For all the chaos the Red Sox have descended into this month, Epstein spent nine years making that organization a model one, aided by a good owner and a slew of talented assistants. All of that is replicable in Chicago. This move will go down as one of the best in Chicago baseball history, and it will eventually produce a long-elusive World Series championship banner for the Cubs.