Tank for Victor: The NBA’s Race to the Bottom
If anyone is still questioning whether the large-scale implications surrounding the 2023 draft were a little different, consider that the NBA’s commissioner has already commented openly on its likely No. 1 pick, French megatalent Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama, of course, put on an immense display in two October exhibitions against G League Ignite in Vegas, putting to rest any significant questions surrounding his candidacy as the draft’s top prospect, while also thrusting himself into the pantheon of all-time intriguing teenage players.
“I worry, I think I could be jinxing a player who hasn’t come into the NBA yet by me anointing him as the next great one,” Adam Silver said earlier this month before a preseason game in Dubai. “But [Wembanyama] certainly has all the attributes of a true game-changer. The physical wherewithal. He seems to have the mind to be a great player. He stepped up on that big stage against Team Ignite.
“I know that many of our NBA teams are salivating at the notion that potentially through our lottery that they could get him,” Silver added, with a half-chuckle, “so they should all still compete very hard next season.”
French basketball star Victor Wembanyama is the likely No. 1 pick for the 2023 NBA draft.
Lucas Peltier/USA TODAY Sports
Silver’s comments were covered by some outlets as a warning shot to would-be tankers, but that feels like a gross mischaracterization of how he meant them: Silver was smiling and almost knowingly deadpanned that message. And he’s right—it’s not like anyone’s players aren’t going to be trying—but certainly, the commissioner knows as well as anyone what the stakes could be and the way front offices have planned behind the scenes for drafts that carried far less public weight and consequence than this one.
I’ve been on the road a bit in the run-up to the season, spending time in Vegas for the Wembanyama tour and Colorado Springs for a USA Basketball minicamp that included some supremely talented 14-year-olds. (Get excited about the 2027 draft, everyone.) But the common theme echoed by scouts around the league who have been out at college practices and other early events is that the quality of this draft looks pretty strong, beginning with Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson on down. It’s always early to call, but that type of perception does matter, and in a year when many are already bracing for a tanking epidemic, it makes that option more palatable.
Without overselling all the losing we’re probably going to see, here’s where the middle-to-bottom chunk of the league stands as we get underway. Some of these teams are bad, some of them are an injury away from being there, and some might be stuck in the middle just enough to think seriously about it.
Already in line
Oklahoma City Thunder
I guess this discussion has to start with the Thunder, who have assembled a youthful team with some very promising players but have been careful the last two years to not cross the threshold into the realm of Too Good to Veer Deep Into the Lottery. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey should make this team watchable, but the other guys have to finish plays for them, and there has to be a workable defense somewhere in here. There’s a Wembanyama-sized hole in the middle. Coincidence? Maybe.
The absence of the injured Chet Holmgren makes the Thunder less interesting to watch, although I think Jalen Williams is a sneaky All-Rookie candidate. Just don’t expect Oklahoma City to step on the gas. There’s been speculation in league circles as to how happy Gilgeous-Alexander—who’s now 24 and ready to compete—is with this whole situation. If his play should lead to OKC winning a few too many games, you do wonder whether the Thunder would consider dealing him in exchange for some other team’s draft assets and pushing forward. The more minutes they’re able to give Ousmane Dieng and Aleksej Pokusevski, the more games they are going to lose, too, and they’re capable of being pretty unsuccessful even with a healthy Shai in the lineup. But the Thunder will be good again one day. Remember they made the playoffs in 2020? That was only two years ago.
San Antonio Spurs
After winning 32, 33 and 34 games the last three seasons, the scientific trends suggest the Spurs … will win 35 this year.
And yet, San Antonio arguably needs a franchise player more than any of these presumed lottery dwellers. The organization is excited about 20-year-old Josh Primo; Keldon Johnson is pretty good; Devin Vassell has made a lot of progress; and rookies Jeremy Sochan, Blake Wesley and Malaki Branham all have promising futures. But barring an improbable leap from anyone here, there’s no star on the roster to pull this thing together yet. Doug McDermott and Josh Richardson are the two highest-paid players here, and Jakob Poeltl may be of interest to playoff teams.
The Spurs should be really bad by handing backcourt minutes to untested players, and that should be enough to anchor them to the bottom of the pack. There are no experienced shot creators here, and that’s typically a recipe for losing. The last year the Spurs won fewer than 30 games was 1997, when they went 20–62, won the lottery and went home with walking playoff berth Tim Duncan. So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.
Utah Jazz
Speaking of the Jazz Age, what’s the real estate market like for “homes designed for 7'4" teenagers” these days? Can Wembanyama move into Rudy Gobert’s old house? Utah enters the season with a monastic commitment to not being good: They have a glut of guards who love to shoot but do not often do so with efficiency; they have Mike Conley, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Rudy Gay and Kelly Olynyk available for rescue; and they just handed GM Justin Zanik a contract extension. This is what Not Trying to Win looks like. (Then again, Utah handily beat Denver on opening night, temporarily throwing their placement in this column strongly into question.)
It seems like Utah is going to be patient, and there are actual NBA players on this roster, so they’ll win games. I’m just not sure how many of them will be here in a few months. Some of these guys should have actual trade value, and this should be a bigger-picture transition year for the Jazz. So, the strip-mining of this team feels kind of inevitable to me. Temper your expectations. If they somehow replace Gobert with Wembanyama, more power to them, I guess.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have a minor conundrum to start the season as far as tanking might be concerned. Tyrese Haliburton is the present and future—many around the league are still shocked Indiana landed him from Sacramento to begin with—and he’ll get the keys to make plays and expand his comfort zone. The short-term problem, speculatively, is that Haliburton may be so good at directly influencing winning basketball that Indiana veers slightly too far away from bottom-three odds. Bennedict Mathurin, Chris Duarte and Isaiah Jackson form an intriguing young supporting cast that should thrive playing up-tempo with Haliburton, and Jalen Smith showed signs of life last season, too.
In short, there’s enough here for Indiana to be a little too good for the high lottery, unless they take some additional steps. This franchise has historically tried to win games and cares about the product it puts on the floor, so it would be a surprise to see any truly blatant moves toward the tank. But hey, Buddy Hield and Myles Turner are blowing in the wind …
Houston Rockets
It would seem the young Rockets are finally cooking something, but there is no present sense of when that thing will become a Thing, how long it will take them to get there or what it will actually look like when we get there. But Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. should be legitimate franchise cornerstones, Alperen Şengün is still a fascinating developmental wild card, the newly paid Kevin Porter Jr. should have more to give and Tari Eason looks like one of the better early values in last June’s draft.
The future here looks pretty good, but to really win, Houston still has a lot of on-court infrastructure to implement, Green has to hit higher efficiency levels and Smith should drive winning but may need a year or two to fully blossom. If this group can find a level of cohesion, the Rockets won’t need to win the lottery this year. But there’s a reason so much of this discussion is built on conjecture—these guys still have to figure it out as a unit. Houston is still going to lose, and it’ll probably be fine with it for at least one more go-around. But there’s already a collection of talent here, and the stakes are going to rise regardless of this year’s lottery.
It’s not technically the plan, but …
Orlando Magic
No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero showcased his skills in his debut against the Pistons.
Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports
We shouldn’t conflate the Magic’s personnel ostensibly improving with the Magic’s team being significantly better in the short term. Orlando just struck lottery gold and has incentive to make progress. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are a fun pairing. But I’m not sure the guard play is going to be good enough to keep the Magic close enough to the play-in threshold that it’s worth pushing for it. It’s easy to posit that one of Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony should eventually pop, but Fultz is already hurt, Suggs shot a horrendous 36% from the field last season, and Anthony wasn’t much better at 39%. Being able to play through Banchero and Wagner helps, but the Magic still have a backcourt problem to solve in the long run.
I’m hugely optimistic about Wagner’s future and think a modest Year 2 breakout is coming. But I do think the Banchero preseason hype train may have escalated a tad too far (although he played a terrific game in his debut on Wednesday). He’s an exciting prospect with snappy highlights and plenty of bells and whistles to his game, but I’m not certain he’s a guy who can get a team over the hump in just one year. Rookies whose value is intrinsically tied to their playmaking development and shot selection usually require patience, and Banchero has a lot of work to do in both areas. It won’t always be as easy as it was for him against the Pistons. And that’s totally O.K. for Orlando, at least for now. Lightning may not strike twice in the lottery, but adding one more premium pick to the mix wouldn’t be the worst thing for them. Henderson would look great in a Disney jersey.
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are going to try to get better with Cade Cunningham as their centerpiece, but realistically, it’s going to take longer. Yes, they traded for Bojan Bogdanović, but they had to give up only spare parts for his expiring contract, and he won’t move the needle alone. So while Detroit would like to make progress this season, and it’s certainly capable of improving on last year’s 23 wins (mostly due to Cunningham, who was quite good down the stretch last year), an eventual nosedive in a draft like this is very much on the table, if not probable.
Frankly, apart from Cunningham, the guard play here probably won’t be good enough for a substantial jump in the standings. Detroit hopes Jaden Ivey will emerge as the No. 2 guy, but for all his amazing highlights and splashy plays, Ivey was not as consistent as you’d imagine at Purdue last season, which typically means rookie-year growing pains. Killian Hayes still isn’t happening, and the Pistons’ vets are Alec Burks and Cory Joseph. The priority here should be helping Cunningham, Ivey and rookie big man Jalen Duren gain constructive experience. So this could devolve into a not-so-stealthy tank job pretty fast.
Charlotte Hornets
I’ve had a sneaking suspicion for a while that the Hornets are the team most likely to pivot into losing. Charlotte won 43 games last season, but I’m pretty sure that won’t happen again. LaMelo Ball is already injured to start the season. Miles Bridges is absent and a nonfactor until further notice, following domestic violence charges. James Bouknight, who needs minutes this season in a big way, was just arrested for DWI. Suffice it to say things are not trending positively here.
Then again, the Hornets won big on opening night… but they were also playing the Spurs. Ball is supposed to miss only a week or so, but he can probably lift this roster only so much. Gordon Hayward is healthy, and Terry Rozier is underrated, but there’s little modicum of depth here and not enough shooting. It’s also hard to see the makings of a playoff-caliber defense. The early schedule isn’t particularly challenging, but this could be a situation that nosedives quickly, particularly if Ball misses more than a few games. And hey, objectively, the Hornets have as good a case as anyone to bottom out for a year and try again. I don’t want to paint this as simply as “LaMelo needs more help,” because LaMelo has a lot of improvement left to do in his own right. I just have a feeling things are going to have to get worse in Charlotte before they get better.
Remember to steer into the skid
New York Knicks
Ah, the Knicks. If Jalen Brunson takes another big leap, there might be a 40-win team here. I’ve been a Brunson believer since the 2015 Illinois state tournament, but I'm not sure he can drag this team into the play-in. A lot is hinging on last season’s intense Julius Randle–centric ennui and whether the Knicks can get him back to All-Star form. Some of the younger guys have to step up, whether it’s R.J. Barrett discovering the magic of efficient basketball or Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes proving steady off the bench. The growth potential here is mostly internal, and New York is trying, which is going to count for something.
Still, it always feels like there’s implosion potential with the Knicks, and there are just so many things that have to go right for New York to sniff the play-in—although the competition for ninth and 10th in the East may not be all that hot. I wouldn’t make assumptions either way about how this goes, and nothing will shock me.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are doing their best to prop up Bradley Beal. There’s enough on the roster to compete for the play-in. I’m very curious what Monte Morris will look like as a full-time starter in a Nikola Jokić–less situation. But there’s also a lot hinging on a slightly creaky Kristaps Porziņģis being able to anchor a competent defense, particularly when surrounded by a wealth of notably average defenders. Recent first-round draftees Deni Avdija, Rui Hachimura and Corey Kispert have to contribute more, and this year’s lottery pick, Johnny Davis, started slow in Summer League and preseason.
Beal agreed to his megaextension, so the stakes aren’t quite as high—but he’s also 29 years old, and we still don’t know for sure whether he’s capable of being the alpha on a legitimately good team. 2018 was a long time ago. And any amount of time he might miss—he hasn’t played a full season since ’19—would seriously dash the Wizards’ already fine margins for success. And if the bottom falls out, Washington may have to ponder some curated losing. Since picking third in ’12 and ’13 (Beal and Otto Porter Jr.), they’ve drafted no higher than ninth. This roster sorely needs a second star-level talent.
Sacramento Kings
The outlook isn’t all that bad in Sacramento to start the season: The Kings have some good players and, it would seem, a bit more stability than usual. I think they nailed the Keegan Murray pick, and I’d like him for Rookie of the Year if I placed such bets. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are young enough to keep hoping for individual growth from each. Harrison Barnes is still here, and Davion Mitchell offers some bench spiciness. And in a year when ostensibly a third of the league could be pretty bad, middle-of-the-pack teams like the Kings relying on legitimate talent are in position to benefit. I don’t know exactly what this will add up to—rim protection is going to be a big problem—but there’s enough here to make the play-in and see what happens.
That said, the Kings as constituted might be one Sabonis or Fox injury away from veering closer to 30 wins than 40. You can say that about a lot of teams, of course, but Sacramento in particular doesn’t seem like it’d be super functional if one of their stars goes down. And a strange chain of circumstances early in the season could put them in a tricky spot. I don’t think it’s necessarily likely this situation will implode, but I also won’t rule it out.
Portland Trail Blazers
Last but not least, I’m fascinated by the Trail Blazers, who have taken on the challenge of straddling the line between being playoff-viable around Damian Lillard and also trying to build for the future. Lillard doesn’t seem like he wants to go anywhere, and he’s pretty tricky to move on his new, enormous contract to begin with. Portland is hoping there’s enough on the roster to stay competitive (landing Jerami Grant to bolster the lineup) while also being quite young around the fringes (using its lottery pick on unproven but fascinating 19-year-old Shaedon Sharpe). It’s generally quite difficult for an organization to walk those pathways simultaneously.
Factor in that the 32-year-old Lillard hasn’t been the picture of durability, logging just 29 games last season, and you see where I’m going with this. If things start poorly, the quality of this draft might mean the Blazers will think about playing the kids and quietly pressing pause for a year, particularly if Dame requires maintenance. I don’t really know how they’re going to pull it off, but it would certainly behoove them to manage Lillard carefully until the roster has matured a bit more around him.
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