The prevailing narrative around Green Bay is that the Packers have no weapons for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. That criticism reached a whole new level following the organization's decision to draft a quarterback (Jordan Love) in Round 1 and a running back (A.J. Dillon) in Round 2 of the 2020 NFL Draft. However, that assessment needs to be amended to state that the Packers have no secondary weapons for Rodgers.
Davante Adams had emerged as one of the best wide receivers in football right when Rodgers needed it the most. Adams' success with no one to take attention away from him is remarkable. The questions are: Can he stay healthy? And can he continue to be this productive as the only significant wide receiver threat in Green Bay?
Let's take a look at what the oddsmakers think. Here's is what FanDuel Sportsbook projects for Adams in terms of receiving yards in 2020:
Adams made the Pro Bowl in each of the last three seasons, but his true breakout into superstardom came in 2018 when he finished with 111 catches for 1,386 yards and 13 touchdowns. The latter is something Adams has been known for, catching 40 TDs in his last 57 games. But this prop bet is about yards.
Pros for betting OVER; Cons for betting UNDER
To reach the 1,201 yards needed to cash an over ticket on this bet, Adams needs to average 75.1 yards per game over 16 games. While that's ever so slightly more than the 74.8 yards per game he's averaged over the last four years, it's a very reachable number considering his increased role in the offense in the previous two seasons.
The loss of Jordy Nelson after the 2017 season, coupled with the departure of Randall Cobb after 2018's campaign has put the offensive spotlight squarely on Adams. He's averaged 11 targets and 7.2 catches per game over the last two seasons. In that timeframe, his yards per game average spiked to 88.3 or a per-16-game total of 1,412 yards.
At that rate, Adams could miss two games next season and still finish with 1,236 receiving yards. There isn't another threat to steal targets away from Adams, so there's no reason to believe his workload will be reduced.
Pros for betting UNDER; Cons for betting OVER
Adams has missed some time due to injuries in his career. Over his six NFL seasons, Adams sat out ten games in total and seven in the last three years. Considering only five players in the entire league crossed the 1,200-receiving-yard threshold previous season, missing any time is going to make it tough for an over bet to cash.
Let's say Adams averages the same 83.1 yards per game he did last season. He'd need to play 15 games to reach 1,201 yards. If his career thus far is any indication, bettors have a 50/50 shot at Adams reaching the 15-game mark. Even at his career-best total of 92.4 yards per game, the under is automatic if Adams misses three or more games—something that's happened twice in the last five seasons, including last year.
While injuries are a concern, there's a 1-2 game cushion built in here as long as you believe Adams will continue to get the workload he's seen in recent years and be as productive. Aside from running back Aaron Jones, there is no legit No. 2 option in Green Bay's passing game. Adams is an elite talent with elite target share. That's precisely what you want when betting the over on a player prop.
The Play: OVER 1,200.5 receiving yards (-112)
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