UFC Fight Night: Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov - MMA Betting & DFS Preview

A heavyweight battle featuring Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov headlines this UFC Fight Night main card.

Author:
Casey Olson
Publish date:
Feb 5, 2021

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov

#UFCVegas18 MMA Betting Preview

After just a quick one-week hiatus, the UFC will now have fight cards for the next eight weeks, with the first of the eight cards kicking off this Saturday with UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov. The organization will be brushing the sand off their clothes from the three-card run over at Fight Island and will bring the fights back this week to its headquarters here stateside in Las Vegas at the Apex. Headlining the card will be the future Hall of Famer, No. 5 Alistair Overeem, who is looking to make one more run, attempting to get the one combat sports title that he hasn't held in his amazing career. Overeem, the former K-1 Grand Prix, Dream, and Strikeforce champ, has won four of his last five fights, and all by finish. Looking to spoil his plans will be No. 6 Alexander Volkov, who's coming off a TKO finish of Walt Harris back in October. With a win against Overeem, he could slide right into talks as a potential future challenger for the title.

The entire card is stacked, but not to be overlooked will be the night's co-main event featuring rising star No. 2 Cory Sandhagen, who takes on the former champion No. 4 Frankie Edgar, in a fight with a lot at stake for the two combatants in the bantamweight division.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT DETAILS

DATE: SATURDAY 02/06/21
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
# of MATCHES: 13

MAIN CARD

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS

#5 ALISTAIR OVEREEM 47-18 VS #6 ALEXANDER VOLKOV 32-8

BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS

#2 CORY SANDHAGEN 13-2 VS #4 FRANKIE EDGAR 24-8-1

FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS

#5 ALEXANDRE PANTOJA 22-5 VS MANEL KAPE 15-4

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

#13 CODY STAMANN 19-3-1 VS ASKAR ASKAR 11-1

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS

#10 DIEGO FERREIRA 17-2 VS #13 BENEIL DARIUSH 19-4-1

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS

MICHAEL JOHNSON 19-16 VS CLAY GUIDA 35-20

PRELIMS

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 205LBS

MIKE RODRIGUEZ 11-5 VS DANILO MARQUES 10-2

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

TIMUR VALIEV 16-2 VS MARTIN DAY 8-5

CATCHWEIGHT BOUT 160LBS

JUSTIN JAYNES 16-6 VS DEVONTE SMITH 10-2

WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS

KAROL ROSA 13-3 VS JOSELYNE EDWARDS 10-2

WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS

MOLLY MCCANN 10-3 VS LARA PROCOPIO 6-1

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

YOUSSEF ZALAL 10-3 VS SEUNG WOO CHOI 8-3

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

ODE OSBOURNE 8-3 VS JEROME RIVERA 10-4

MAIN EVENT PREDICTION

#5 ALISTAIR OVEREEM 47-18 VS #6 ALEXANDER VOLKOV 32-8

Let's lock "The Reem" and "Drago" in the small cage and have some fun! In the night's main event, Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov look to produce a statement win by night's end, further establishing themselves as just another win or two away from a title shot. While bettors have quickly moved Volkov's line up 25-30 cents this week, I'm over here just seeing more of a number next to Overeem I'm just going to have to bite on.

Now exceeding +170 in most spots, Overeem is becoming a substantial dog, all while being the biggest name Volkov has faced now in his career. Without a doubt, Overeem is a future Hall of Famer and has had one of the more decorated careers in the sport. One title has eluded him along the way, though, and at 40 years young, he looks to make one last run at the UFC heavyweight strap, though Saturday will be very critical in that run taking course. Overeem has won four of his last five. His only loss is a very debatable one, as referee Dan Miragliotta waived off his fight against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, with just 4 seconds left in the 5th and final round, in a fight Overeem had all but locked up. Though Overeem immediately stood after taking a big shot splitting his lip into two, Miragliotta called the fight even with the two fighters ready to bring the fight to a close via the final bell. Through his 66 fight career in MMA, Overeem has been nothing short of a highlight reel, though unfortunately seeing himself on both ends of the highlights. With 14 knockout losses, some have questions about just how much of a chin is left after the wars. This last string of fights shows a much more strategic and selective fighter compared to year's past. Overeem has a tendency now to pick his spots on the feet. He conserves his gas tank with less volume while looking for spots to land takedowns to cause some damage from top control. We've seen this strategy clearly in his last two fights, where he's taken the fight to the mat and scored at will, ultimately finishing both opponents. As he looks to stay in the win column against Volkov, he'll have to stay the course and do the same, leveraging the small cage in his favor, as well as Volkov's lackluster grappling game.

On the other hand, Volkov wants to stay long and keep the volume up as he's known for in this matchup. He has a sneaky uppercut and typically lands twice the strikes on his foes than he absorbs. Volkov is technically skilled on the feet, and after getting taken down 14 times by Curtis Blaydes and still surviving, he's validated a gas tank of his own.

I'm looking at many things in this matchup. Even though Volkov's record portrays him as a big finisher, he really hasn't shown us that in the UFC. After eight fights in the organization, his fight time average is over 15 minutes, and the finishes he's accomplished are against guys who aren't known for hearing that final bell at a high rate, if you know what I mean. Overall, who has Volkov beaten? As I look through his resume, yes, he's been the M-1 and Bellator heavyweight champion, but along the way, the level of opponents he's faced are not comparable to Overeem's. Volkov's takedown defense is mysterious as well. At 6' 7", Volkov tends to have issues with the defense, which will play right into what we need to see from Overeem right out of the shoots. Volkov has proven his ability to get the feet back up, but with someone with Overeem on top of you, it would be best to avoid any attempts, period. Yes, Blaydes took him down 14 times, and he survived. But Blaydes hasn't shown us that lights out power than Overeem still has. Takedowns will be critical in Overeem's success Saturday night.

It's funny to think that a guy on a run like Overeem is right now somewhat has his back against the wall. Father time is undefeated, and Overeem has been very vocal in knowing where he stands. That said, I don't think we will see the Overeem we've seen at times in the past, who turtles up, just to avoid the big shots while cornered, almost inviting the referee to wave it off. We will get his best effort, that is, unless he gets clipped, but you have to consider Volkov hasn't consistently shown us his ability to turn someone's lights out. As we know, with these big guys, all it takes is one shot to land, and it can be curtains. Volkov will have the edge in volume, endurance, and ability to get chin checked. But I see Overeem's considerable experience, grappling, and that curtain jerkin' power to come into play. Volkov hasn't faired well as of late in the US, going just 1-4 in his last five fights. The consensus out there is that he breaks that trend, but I see a risk worth taking this great number on Overeem.

PREDICTION: ALISTAIR OVEREEM +161

MAIN CARD WAGERS

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS: #5 ALISTAIR OVEREEM 47-18 VS #6 ALEXANDER VOLKOV 32-8

Though 4-1 on paper, Reem could easily be on a five-fight win streak. The only loss in the last-second loss the ref waived off against Rozenstruik, in a fight, Overeem was winning.
Volkov is 7-5 overall while fighting in the US, and just 1-4 in his last five stateside.
Volkov has gone to the 3rd round in 7 of his 8 UFC fights.
Overeem is eight years older than Volkov.
One time for the people, Demolition Man.
BET: ALISTAIR OVEREEM +161

BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS: #2 CORY SANDHAGEN 13-2 VS #4 FRANKIE EDGAR 24-8-1

This will be Edgar's second fight at this weight. (1-0)
Edgar is 11 years older than Sandhagen
Sandhagen has a significant striking differential and lands over three more strikes per minute on average.
Look for Edgar to get this one to the ground, avoiding the striking and exposing Sandhagen's 30% takedown defense.
Edgar on the downhill slope. He should be on a three-fight skid but snuck out a split against Pedro Munhoz, whom many thought won.
Edgar needs to get takedowns and avoid standing with Sandhagen.
Not sure if Sandhagen should be a 4 to 1 favorite here, but he should win.

FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS: #5 ALEXANDRE PANTOJA 22-5 VS MANEL KAPE 15-4

After his first two scheduled bouts were canceled, Kape will officially make his UFC debut.
Kape has won via finish in his last 11 consecutive wins.
Pantoja has never been finished in 27 fights.
This will be Kape's first fight in the US.
A handful of bettors I've talked to on Kape here. I have to see him make his UFC debut before I join the club.
BET: PANTOJA/KAPE U2.5 -130

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: #13 CODY STAMANN 19-3-1 VS ASKAR ASKAR 11-1

Askar is making his UFC debut on just five days' notice after Andre Ewell withdrew.
Seven of Stamann's last eight fights have gone to a decision.
This will be Askar's second fight at this weight. (Usually fights at 135)
Askar will have a 5-inch reach advantage.
BET: STAMANN via DEC -140 (Stamann a good parlay leg)

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS: #10 DIEGO FERREIRA 17-2 VS #13 BENEIL DARIUSH 19-4-1

Dariush won their first match by decision in 2014.
In that fight, Dariush landed three takedowns. He's never lost a fight in the UFC where he lands more than his opponent and will need to do the same here against a much improved Ferreira.
Ferreira's only two losses are against southpaws. (Poirier, Dariush)
Dariush has been the underdog on four occasions. He's won three of those; Barboza was the one loss.

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS: MICHAEL JOHNSON 19-16 VS CLAY GUIDA 35-20

Johnson has lost his last four fights at this weight class.
Guida has lost via submission in four of his last six losses.
In 35 professional fights, Johnson only has two submission wins.
Guida is just 5-6 against southpaws.
Johnson is 11-12 in the UFC and 3-8 in his last 11 fights.
Johnson has lost seven of eight fights where he's been slated as the favorite.
BET: GUIDA +175

PRELIMS WAGERS

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 205LBS: MIKE RODRIGUEZ 11-5 VS DANILO MARQUES 10-2

Rodriguez's last six wins have come by KO in Round 1.
Rodriguez's average fight time is 5:48. (less than 1.5 rounds)
Though going to a decision in 3 of his last 4, Marques's average fight time is 6:07. (less than 1.5 rounds)
Marques has never won in the states and has never faced a southpaw in his career.

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: TIMUR VALIEV 16-2 VS MARTIN DAY 8-5

This will be Day's first fight at this weight. (Usually fights down at 135)
Day will have a 6.5-inch reach advantage, yet Valiev has a significant striking differential.
Day is 0-3 in the UFC, and Valiev is riding a six-fight win streak, except his KO loss to Trevin Jones, which was later turned to a No Contest due to a positive marijuana test.
BET: VALIEV (look via ITD +110)

CATCHWEIGHT BOUT 160LBS: JUSTIN JAYNES 16-6 VS DEVONTE SMITH 10-2

Smith has never gone to a decision, and Jaynes hasn't been to a decision since 2017.
Jaynes is taking this fight on just five days' notice.
Smith will have an 8-inch reach advantage and lands 6.88 strikes per minute, while Jaynes absorbs 7.82 per minute.
Both fighters have either landed or been on the receiving end of a knockdown in every UFC fight.
Smith is 3-0 in the UFC.
BET: JAYNES/SMITH U1.5 -170

WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS: KAROL ROSA 13-3 VS JOSELYNE EDWARDS 10-2

Edwards is taking this fight on just 11 days' notice, and it was her second UFC fight since her debut with the company 21 days ago.
Rosa has gone to the third round in five of her last six fights.
This will be Rosa's first fight in the U.S.

WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS: MOLLY MCCANN 10-3 VS LARA PROCOPIO 6-1

Procopio has been out for over 17 months, with her last booking canceled due to COVID.
Procopio will have a 5.5-reach advantage, and in her UFC debut, threw 294 strikes in a razor-close split decision loss to Karol Rosa.
McCann has only been finished once and has gone to a decision in her last four fights, proving her durability.

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: YOUSSEF ZALAL 10-3 VS SEUNG WOO CHOI 8-3

Zalal is fighting on 10 days' notice after two opponents have fallen through for Choi.
Choi has been out for 13 months and looks to make it two in a row with a win over Zalal.
Zalal has never been finished and has gone to a decision in all four of his UFC fights.
Both guys have struggled when their opponent has the grappling advantage.
Zalal should have the grappling edge in this one. Let's see if he takes the fight to the ground.
BET: ZALAL (look via DEC +125)

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: ODE OSBOURNE 8-3 VS JEROME RIVERA 10-4

Rivera fought just 17 days ago, losing to Francisco Figueiredo, and now takes this on four days' notice.
Win or lose, Osbourne's last six fights have ended in the first round.
Both fighters are looking to earn their first victory in the UFC.
Rivera has never fought at 145. (Usually at 125 or 135)

BET CONFIDENCE RANKING

Valiev
Stamann
Jaynes/Smith U1.5
Zalal
Overeem
Pantoja/Kape U2.5
Guida

PARLAY & ROUND ROBIN CONSIDERATIONS

Stamann/Valiev/Zalal +130

+ Smith/Jaynes Fight doesn't go to DEC +170
+ Marques/Rodriguez fight doesn't go to DEC +245

THE GUPPY SPECIAL

Now, this is no "whale play," and actually, it's completely the opposite. This one is for pure entertainment purposes only. Many of you know that I've run the board a handful of times as I've thrown out predictions, and one of these week's we will hit one of these "guppies."

I'd say use this play to round your balance off at your book, and if we hit, we're going to Sizzler.

This week's Guppy Special (odds from DraftKings):

Overeem
Sandhagen
Stamann
Dariush
Guida
Rodriguez
Valiev
Rosa
Smith
Zalal

Parlay pays +9919

FULL CARD PREDICTIONS

ALISTAIR OVEREEM defeats ALEXANDER VOLKOV
CORY SANDHAGEN defeats FRANKIE EDGAR
MANEL KAPE defeats ALEXANDRE PANTOJA
CODY STAMANN defeats ASKAR ASKAR
BENEIL DARIUSH defeats DIEGO FERREIRA
CLAY GUIDA defeats MICHAEL JOHNSON
MIKE RODRIGUEZ defeats DANILO MARQUES
TIMUR VALIEV defeats MARTIN DAY
DEVONTE SMITH defeats JUSTIN JAYNES
KAROL ROSA defeats JOSELYNE EDWARDS
LARA PROCOPIO defeats MOLLY MCCANN
YOUSSEF ZALAL defeats SEUNG WOO CHOI
ODE OSBOURNE defeats JEROME RIVERA

UFC PREDICTION BET SUMMARY

2021 fight card predictions overall: 19-16 (54%)
2021 targeted matchups (wagers): 14-15 (48%)

Be sure to check out DraftKings Sportsbook options as well, on top of the daily fantasy tournaments available for Saturday. The sportsbook has lines up and available for fight lines, method of victory, and round betting!

UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS PLAYS & STRATEGIES

Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.

Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.

Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.

Don't get excited and rush a pick based on stats; consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You'd be surprised at what you will find.

Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.

As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here's my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC Fight Night. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.

Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS RECOMMENDATIONS

Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)

Fights projected to NOT go to a decision

Overeem/Volkov -215
Dariush/Ferreira -120
Marques/Rodriguez -365
Day/Valiev -130
Smith/Jaynes -425
Pantoja/Kape -195
Rivera/Osbourne -165

As usual, take a look at the main event with five rounds to score. Both fighters have upside based on pricing. High risk, high reward with Overeem and Volkov are playable at $8,600 if you are siding with him to take this one.
Top-tier fighters to build around include Smith, Rodriguez, Valiev
Mid-tier fighter considerations are Rosa, Volkov
Live dogs are Osbourne, Overeem, Kape, Dariush

Good luck, everyone. I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night! Follow me on Twitter @Y2CASEY