UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns - MMA Betting & DFS Preview

A welterweight title matchup between Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns headlines this UFC 258 main card.

Author:
Casey Olson
Publish date:
Feb 12, 2021

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns

Former teammates square off Saturday night in the main event, and the welterweight title will be on the line, live from the Apex in Las Vegas for UFC 258.

Welterweight champ, Kamaru Usman, looks to make it three straight title defenses against his former teammate #2 Gilbert Burns, who’s earned his shot after going 5-0 since moving up to 170 pounds. The match was originally slated for last July on Fight Island, but Burns tested positive for Covid, resulting in Jorge Masvidal stepping in with just days notice. He eventually lost via decision to Usman, who made it 16 wins in a row with the victory.

Burns is chomping at the bit and has a shot at making history with a win on Saturday night. He can be the first Brazilian welterweight champ in the company’s history if he can close the deal.

12 fights make up the entire card, and early prelims will be available on ESPN+ to kick things off, followed up with the prelims on ESPN, and rounding out the night will be the main card live on pay per view.

You know the drill, so let’s dive in.

UFC 258 Details

DATE: Saturday, 02/13/21

BROADCAST: PPV – Prelims: ESPN/ESPN+

VENUE: UFC APEX

LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada

MATCHES: 12

UFC 258: Main Card

WELTERWEIGHT TITLE BOUT 170 LBS

C KAMARU USMAN 17-1 VS #2 GILBERT BURNS 19-3

WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125 LBS

#10 MAYCEE BARBER 8-1 VS #15 ALEXA GRASSO 12-3

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185 LBS

#9 KELVIN GASTELUM 16-6 VS #15 IAN HEINISCH 14-3

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185 LBS

MAKI PITOLO 13-7 VS JULIAN MARQUEZ 7-2

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155 LBS

JIM MILLER 32-15 VS BOBBY GREEN 27-11-1

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185 LBS

RODOLFO VIEIRA 7-0 VS ANTHONY HERNANDEZ 7-2

WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170 LBS

#13 BELAL MUHAMMAD 17-3 VS DHIEGO LIMA 15-7

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115 LBS

POLYANA VIANA 11-4 VS MALLORY MARTIN 7-3

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145 LBS

RICKY SIMON 17-3 VS BRIAN KELLEHER 22-11

WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170 LBS

GABE GREEN 9-3 VS PHILLIP ROWE 7-2

WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125 LBS

GILLIAN ROBERTSON 9-5 VS MIRANDA MAVERICK 8-2

CATCHWEIGHT BOUT 140 LBS

ANDRE EWELL 17-6 VS CHRIS GUTIEREZ 15-3-2

UFC 258 Main Event Prediction

WELTERWEIGHT TITLE BOUT 170LBS

(C) KAMARU USMAN 17-1 VS #2 GILBERT BURNS 19-3

Usman is on a 16 fight winning streak. His last loss came in 2013, in just his second pro fight against Jose Caceres, losing via submission. Usman has had five submission attempts against him since joining the UFC, though has never been defeated via any method.
Burns is 19-3 overall, but has yet to lose at 170, going 5-0.
Burns has mentioned that he and Usman have had over 200 sparring sessions, as training partners for several years.
Usman left their camp to work with Trevor Wittman and his fight team for this match up. This team includes former interim lightweight champ Justin Gaethje.
Though possessing more speed, Burns lands roughly 1.5 fewer strikes per minute, with less accuracy, while also absorbing more shots per minute in comparison to Usman.
Usman has an NCAA Division II wrestling background, along with a BJJ black belt. He comes into this fight having defended 100% of takedown attempted against him.
Usman lands over three takedowns on average per 15 minutes which will work into play at some point against Burns’ 50% defense.
Usman will have a 5-inch reach advantage.
Usman’s last seven fights:

50-45 against Jorge Masvidal
KO’d Colby Covington
50-44 against Tyron Woodley
50-43 against Rafael Dos Anjos
50-45 against Demain Maia
30-26 against Sean Strickland
30-27 against Leon Edwards

Quick Take: Burns has a shot to be the first Brazilian champ at 170. Usman’s been here several times now. The lights are going to be bright in this spot for Burns, and he’s putting a lot of pressure on himself you can tell via his responses to the countless media questions. I expect him to come out fast, while Usman stays composed and big brother’s him.

I can’t see Burns winning a decision, so he’s gotta get creative and look to finish. Burns is known as a submission guy, but before you look to bite on that prop, remember he has had just one in the last five years, and Usman has never been taken down in any fight in the UFC. The line should be a tad closer and we will see a good scrap against two guys that know each other very well, but I see Usman putting it on him like the Colby fight.

Prediction: Usman, and while the world pounds the decision and over rounds, I actually wouldn’t be surprised if we possibly see a finish.

Bet: No play. (Parlay position if you get down like that)

UFC 258 Main Card Wagers

WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS

#10 MAYCEE BARBER 8-1 VS #15 ALEXA GRASSO 12-3

Barber is returning after suffering the first defeat of her career in a fight where she was a -850 favorite to win.
Barber suffered a complete ACL tear in her left knee in that fight, early in the first round, yet still continued and made it to the final bell. (tough)
Barber is very active on the feet, landing over six significant strikes per minute, and her last five victories have come by way of KO.
Barber has never been finished in her career.
Grasso has gone to a decision in eight of her last nine fights. The one that didn’t, was a round 1 submission loss to Tatiana Suarez.
Barber has two submission wins, though those came early in her career against low-level opponents.
Grasso is 0-1 against southpaws, though that can’t be read into here much, as the 1 loss was against Suarez, and the large majority of that fight was on the mat.

Quick Take: Very underrated co-main fight. This should be a good scrap against two that like to go ham on the feet. That said though, Grasso gets taken down a lot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Barber looks to get her to the mat for the ground and pound. Two very durable fighters with only one loss via finish between the two combined. Heck, Barber fought almost the entire fight against Modafferi with a torn ACL, and still made the final bell. Let’s have some fun.

Prediction: Barber, and I don’t hate the decision prop.

Bet: Barber +120

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS

#9 KELVIN GASTELUM 16-6 VS #15 IAN HEINISCH 14-3

Gastelum is on a three fight losing streak, and just 2-5 in his last 7.
Gastelum has gone to a decision in three of his last four fights including the 5-round fight against champ Israel Adesanya.
Heinisch has gone to a decision in four of his last five, with his last fight lasting just over a minute where he TKO’d Gerald Meerschaert.
Heinisch has had some success against southpaws, going 4-1.
Gastelum tends to fight to his opponent’s level of output. He’s had 6 split decisions going 3-3 in those fights.
Gastelum’s last three KO wins are against guys on the downhill slope of their careers. (Bisping, Kennedy, Marquardt)
Heinisch has never been KO’d.

Quick Take: Step down in competition for Gastelum after dropping three straight. Heinisch is a tough dude, but more of a scrapper, compared to Gastelum, who’s technically better everywhere. Gastelum can be mysteries in there, but you’d have to think he’s gonna fight uber-smart and avoid dropping a fourth straight. The Heinisch line caught my eye, but I can’t get sucked into this recency bias. Side note, neither guy has ever been knocked out.

Prediction: Gastelum

Bet: No play

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS

MAKI PITOLO 13-7 VS JULIAN MARQUEZ 7-2

Marquez has been away from the octagon for two years, due to a fully torn latissimus dorsi. The doctor who worked on the injury does work with Major League Baseball players and stated he’s never seen a tendon torn this severe.
Marquez was eager to return in November, but his fight was canceled due to a botched weight cut by Saparbeg Safarov. Do you think he’s hungry coming into this one?
Pitolo is 1-3 in the UFC, with his one win in that span against Charles Byrd, who was all but retired before the start of their fight.
Marquez has never been finished, and all seven of his wins have been via finish.
Pitolo has been finished in five of his seven defeats, most recently a submission loss against Darren Stewart, a guy who Marquez submitted himself.
Pitolo has fought at 170 most of his career, but more recently moved up to 185. He’s 2-2 at this weight, with his two wins against Justin Sumter (who’s never fought in the UFC) and Charles Byrd, who again was retiring after their matchup last June.

Quick Take: “The Cuban Missile Crisis” vs “Coconut Bombz.” That sums it up. Marquez is extremely hungry to get back in there after like 31 months away. He’ll be the bigger fighter in there, and probably do some wild stuff looking to land a bonus. Pitolo is throwing his coconut bombs but has lacked striking defense while doing some which could lead to some trouble. Expect some chaos, and don’t miss this one.

Prediction: Pitolo gets hurt and panics and some point. Marquez gets another finish.

Bet: Fight To Go the Distance: NO -175, Marquez wins inside the distance +150

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS

JIM MILLER 32-15 VS BOBBY GREEN 27-11-1

Miller’s last four wins have come by way of submission. Green hasn’t been submitted since 2009.
Green is 2-4 against southpaws.
Green has finished in 63% of his wins, yet has gone to a decision in his last nine fights, and 12 of his last 13.
Miller has low striking output, and Green lands almost double statistically.
Green has been taken down by his opponent in seven of his last eight fights.

Quick Take: 86 fights combined coming into this one. Both these guys are hard to finish, and we know Miller is a submission specialist, but Green has some good takedown defense. Green will have way more volume on the feet, and Miller should eventually slow and have a tough time keeping up with the pace later in the fight. If Green can avoid the early first-round onslaught, he should be able to take control and touch up Miller the latter half of the fight. As I mentioned above, Green’s last nine fights have gone to the final bell. Additionally, Miller is 0-5 in his last five fights that have gone to a decision.

Prediction: Green

Bet: Green via DEC -120

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS

RODOLFO VIEIRA 7-0 VS ANTHONY HERNANDEZ 7-2

Hernandez averages about two takedowns a round, but not sure he wants to go there here.
Vieira has won via submission in six of his seven wins.
Vieira is a BJJ Black belt and 5x BJJ World Champion. Hernandez has a Blue belt.
Vieira has very low volume on the feet but has landed two or more takedowns in each of his UFC fights, leading to submissions.

Quick Take: Feels like a setup fight to me for Vieira. Fluffy has his back against the wall dropping two of his last three, getting finished in both. Vieira has impressed since joining the UFC with 2 arm-triangle chokes. With five combined fights in the UFC, the average fight time for these guys is less than six minutes, aka U1.5 rounds.

Prediction: Vieira

Bet: Vieira/Hernandez U1.5 RDS -145 (Better price than the Vieira sub at -200)

WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170LBS

#13 BELAL MUHAMMAD 17-3 VS DHIEGO LIMA 15-7

Lima has been out for over 16 months, after pulling out with an injury, and this matchup being rebooked after Muhammad tested positive for Covid in December.
Muhammad has gone to a decision in seven of his last eight fights. He carries a 30% finish rate.
In 20 fights, Muhammad has only been finished once.
Muhammad has landed at least one takedown in nine of his 11 UFC fights.

Quick Take: Step down in competition for Muhammad. He cruises here, and we “Remember the Name.”

Prediction: Muhammad

Bet: No play (Muhammad via DEC is tempting)

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115LBS

POLYANA VIANA 11-4 VS MALLORY MARTIN 7-3

All 11 of Viana’s wins have been finishes, and 10 of those were in the first round.
Viana hasn’t impressed in the UFC, going just 2-3, with her two wins against 4-4 and 6-5 fighters.
Martin has won 6 of her last 7, and her only defeat was a round 2 sub loss to Virna Jandiroba, who’s a sub machine.
Five of their seven combined UFC fights have ended in the under rounds.

Quick Take: Gotta go with the wrestler here. After they trade for a bit, Martin will get a little pieced up, then go in to tie up Viana either against the cage or look to take Viana down.

Prediction: Martin

Bet: No play

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

RICKY SIMON 17-3 VS BRIAN KELLEHER 22-11

Simon with a quick turnaround after winning via submission just 24 days ago.
Simon is undefeated at 145, going 4-0.
Simon has landed 20 takedowns in his last three fights. (7,7,6)
Kelleher packs power but carries just a 40% accuracy on the feet.
Kelleher absorbs almost double the strikes on average in comparison to Simon.

Quick Take: Good scrap here. Simon will be faster, more volume, and have the reach advantage. You know how he does too, he typically goes for the takedowns, but in this spot, he’s gotta stay at bay and not get uber-confident. Kelleher has that guillotine choke and can spark Simon if he lands. As long as Simon stays composed, he should be ok. -250 seems a little high though.

Prediction: Simon

Bet: No play

WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170LBS

GABE GREEN 9-3 VS PHILLIP ROWE 7-2

Rowe is making his UFC debut after earning a contract on DWCS last August.
Rowe will have a 7.5-inch reach advantage and has won via finish in his last seven consecutive fights.
Green has also won via finish in all his victories.
In 21 combined fights, only two have gone to a decision.
Green is just 1-2 at 170, typically fighting at 155.

Quick Take: Debut fight for “The Fresh Prince.” Green has more experience and will hang around on the feet, but that 80.5 inch reach Rowe has at this weight is nasty. Both guys are known to be finishers, but also make mistakes along the way. A recipe for something weird to happen here.

Prediction: Rowe

Bet: Fight To Go the Distance: NO -149

WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS

GILLIAN ROBERTSON 9-5 VS MIRANDA MAVERICK 8-2

Maverick has won four straight, after winning her debut via RD1 stoppage last October.
Maverick has yet to be finished after 10 professional fights.
Robertson will be the slightly bigger fighter for the first time in a while. She’s faced bigger opponents in her last six fights.
Very low volume on the feet typically for Robertson, as she usually looks to take the fight to the mat and control.

Quick Take: Maverick looked jittery in her debut, but eventually got a doctor’s stoppage breaking Liana Jojua’s nose. It's a step up in competition here with Robertson. We all know Robertson will look for the first opportunity to get this one to the mat, and should. Robertson, a BJJ black belt, should have the grappling advantage, and with her back against the wall, should stay in her wheelhouse and do what she does best. She’s never lost two fights in a row, and I believe this one is the last on her current contract. Big spot for her against the 23-year old catching some attention as of late.

Prediction: Robertson

Bet: Robertson +115

CATCHWEIGHT BOUT 140LBS

ANDRE EWELL 17-6 VS CHRIS GUTIERREZ 15-3-2

All six of Ewell’s UFC fights have gone into the third round.
Gutierrez is durable, having only been finished once.
Gutierrez is 5-0 against southpaws.
Ewell will have a nine-inch reach advantage, though has low accuracy on the feet.

Quick Take: Not too invested in this fight. Gutierrez and the leg kicks coming in on short notice. Ewell was supposed to fight Cody Stamann last card but was pulled due to a positive Covid test, that was re-tested as negative. Guess this fight was meant to be, as Gutierrez has called out Ewell in the past. I expect the leg kicks to cause some issues for the southpaw.

Prediction: Gutierrez

Bet: No play

OFFICIAL BET CONFIDENCE RANKING:

1 Marquez/Pitolo Fight To Go the Distance: NO -175

2 Green via DEC -120

3 Vieira/Hernandez U1.5 RDS -145

4 Robertson +115

5 Barber +120

6 Rowe/Green Fight To Go the Distance: NO -149

7 Marquez ITD

PARLAY/ROUND ROBIN CONSIDERATIONS:

Usman/Vieira ITD/Muhammad +141

The Guppy Special. Now, this is no “whale play”, and actually it’s completely the opposite. This one is for pure entertainment purposes only. Many of you know that I’ve run the board a handful of times as I’ve thrown out predictions, and one of these week’s we will hit one of these “guppies.”

I’d say use this play to round your balance off at your book, and if we hit, we’re going to Sizzler.

This week’s Guppy Special: (Odds via Draftkings)

Parlay pays +2673

Robertson

Simon

Muhammad

Bobby Green

Vieira

Marquez

Barber

Usman

UFC 258: Full Card Predictions

KAMARU USMAN defeats GILBERT BURNS
MAYCEE BARBER defeats ALEXA GRASSO
KELVIN GASTELUM defeats IAN HEINISCH
JULIAN MARQUEZ defeats MAKI PITOLO
BOBBY GREEN defeats JIM MILLER
RODOLFO VIEIRA defeats ANTHONY HERNANDEZ
BELAL MUHAMMAD defeats DHIEGO LIMA
MALLORY MARTIN defeats POLYANA VIANA
RICKY SIMON defeats BRIAN KELLEHER
PHILLIP ROWE defeats GABE GREEN
GILLIAN ROBERTSON defeats MIRANDA MAVERICK
CHRIS GUTIEREZ defeats ANDRE EWELL

2021 Fight card predictions overall: 27-20 (57%)

2021 Targeted matchups (wagers): 16-20 (44%)

Be sure to check out DraftKings Sportsbook options as well, on top of the daily fantasy tournaments available for Saturday. The sportsbook has lines up and available for fight lines, method of victory, and round betting!

UFC 258: DFS Plays and Analysis

Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
Try to always include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in, even more, you can compare the method of victory to the method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.

As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC 258. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual match-ups below.

Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two, key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.

Further Recommendations

Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)

Fights projected to NOT go to a decision:

Marquez/Pitolo -170
Hernandez/Vieira -475
Green/Rowe -165

As usual, take a look at the main event with five rounds to score. Both fighters have an upside based on pricing. If Burns can catch Usman, great value for that price. I have to side with Usman though.