MLB Bets for Friday, May 7: Giants Stay Hot, Home Dog Win vs. Padres

SI Gambling analyst Roy Larking previews Friday's MLB betting action and shares the two top picks on his baseball betting card.

Author:
Roy Larking
Publish date:
May 7, 2021

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Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

American League Central leaders meet when Chicago and Kansas City begin a three-game series tonight. Game time for the White Sox vs. Royals matchup is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. This is the third of 19 meetings this season. After one game was rained out, these teams split their first series 1–1 in early April. White Sox starter Lance Lynn pitched a complete game shutout, and Chicago posted a 6–0 win in the first game. Following two days off, Kansas City scored on a throwing error in the 10th inning and closed the series with a 4–3 victory.

Chicago (16–13) was inconsistent early as they posted a 9–9 record over their first 18 games. That was followed by a 6–3 winning streak during a nine-game homestand. The White Sox outscored the Rangers 19–12 during a 3–0 sweep. After the Tigers upset Chicago 5–2, the White Sox rebounded with 3–1 and 11–0 victories during a 2–1 series win against Detroit. Between 5–3 and 5–0 wins by the Indians, the White Sox won 7–3 and closed the homestand with a 2–1 series loss to Cleveland. Chicago had a day off yesterday and enter this series following a 9–0 win and a 1–0 loss in Cincinnati.

Kansas City (16–14) began the season as a +10000 moneyline longshot to win the World Series on the MLB futures board at DraftKings. Playing above expectations, the Royals were first overall in the AL Central standings with a 14–7 record on April 26. Offense and pitching have been an issue recently as the Royals have lost seven of the last nine games. Kansas City posted a 9–6 win in Pittsburgh, plus an 11–3 victory in Minnesota, but was outscored 48–19 during the seven losses. The Royals are third in AL Central but just a half-game behind Chicago and one game behind Cleveland.

Largely due to a pitching mismatch, Chicago is a favorite on the road in the contest. RHP Carlos Rodón (4–0, 0.72 ERA) makes his fifth start for the White Sox. Including a no-hitter during an 8–0 win against Cleveland on April 14, Rodón has allowed three runs over 25.0 innings during his first four starts. RHP Brad Keller (2–3, 8.06 ERA) makes his seventh start for Kansas City. He gave up seven runs in the third inning (two earned), and the Royals lost 13–4 to the Twins in Minnesota during his last start on May 2. Offering better value than a parlay, back Chicago on the moneyline / run total prop.

Pick: Chicago White Sox / UNDER 8.5 total runs (+240)

Betting Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook – Game Time 8:10 p.m. ET

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

Surprise leaders in the NL West, San Francisco hosts San Diego for the first of a three-game series. The first pitch for the Giants vs. Padres contest is at 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in California. Following a pair of three-game sets in San Diego, this is the seventh of 19 meetings. San Francisco won two games, both by a 3–2 margin, and San Diego posted a 3–1 win in the first series. The Padres won 3–2 and 6–2 before the Giants won the third game 7–1 in the second series. San Diego won five games in San Francisco and was 8–2 against the Giants last year. Two or more runs decided six of the wins.

San Diego (18–14) is second in the NL West standings and trails San Francisco by a half-game. The Padres opened the season with an 8–3 record before losing seven of their next nine games. Getting back on track, San Diego is on an 8–4 run that started with a 3–1 series win against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. The Padres had a day off yesterday and head to San Francisco after a 2–1 series win at home against Pittsburgh. All three games were low scoring as San Diego posted 2–0 and 4–2 wins. The Pirates avoided a sweep with a 2–1 win. The Padres score 3.84 runs and allow 3.34 runs.

San Francisco (18–13) began the season behind Los Angeles (-250) and San Diego (+200) with +4000 odds to win the NL West title. Despite outscoring the Padres 11–10 and the Rockies by a 23-18 margin, the Giants return home following 2–1 series losses in San Diego and Colorado. San Francisco has played 18 of their first 31 games on the road. They are 8–10 with a slim 79–74 scoring advantage as visitors. The numbers improve at home as they are 10–3 at Oracle Park and have outscored opponents by a 59–34 margin. Overall, the Giants score 4.45 runs and allow 3.48 runs per game.

Tonight’s pitching matchup is a repeat of the Padres 6–2 win at home against the Giants on May 1. LHP Blake Snell (1–0, 3.51 ERA) allowed one earned run, over 5.0 innings, and recorded his first win with the Padres. Giants RHP Anthony DeSclafani (2–1, 2.00 ERA) allowed three earned runs, over 6.0 innings, and was tagged with the loss. During his first two road starts, Snell allowed five runs over 6.0 innings. Including a complete game 12–0 shutout on April 26, DeSclafani pitched 15 scoreless innings over two starts at home against Colorado. Bet on the Giants staying hot at Oracle Park.

Pick: San Francisco Giants (+125) moneyline