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Rams at Seahawks Best Bets, Spread, Odds and Picks For Thursday Night Football

The Rams and Seahawks kick things off in Week 5 on TNF. Check out the betting breakdown for insight on what picks to make.

Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season kicks off Thursday night when the Seahawks host the Rams in an NFC West showdown.

Two massive trends will clash in this matchup. The Rams, who are off to a 3-1 straight-up (SU) and 2-2 against the spread (ATS), have beaten the Seahawks six times in the past eight meetings. However, Seattle has been extremely profitable for bettors to support on the moneyline with nine consecutive wins in Thursday games, and 10 of 11 overall.

After starting the season on a three-game winning streak, the Rams were upset, 37-20, as 3.5-point home favorites last week by Arizona. On the flip side, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks snapped their two-game losing streak in Week 4 when they earned a 28-21 road victory over San Francisco as 2.5-point underdogs.

Week-5-TNF-Betting-Breakdown
  • Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: LAR 61% | SEA:39%
  • Game Info: Thursday, Oct. 7, 2021, 8:20 p.m. ET | NFL Network

The line has risen since opening with Los Angeles as a 1-point favorite over Seattle at SI Sportsbook. The Rams are now 2.5-point road favorites. The total, which opened at 53, has begun to see action to the over, pushing the line up to 54.5.

Public steam has pushed this number up after its opening, with pro money also arriving in support of the Rams. The Seahawks (2-2 SU; 2-2 ATS), who have allowed 21-plus points in three of four games this season, will not find easy sledding against a high-powered Rams offense averaging 28.8 points per game.

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Oct 3, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson (27) runs the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Oct 3, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson (27) runs the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Rams Player Prop Info

It has been a solid start for Stafford in his first season in Los Angeles. He's among the league leaders in several passing categories, ranking second in touchdown passes (11), fourth in passing yards (305.5 per game) and tied for second in QBR (76.6). On a short week, the veteran could be in for a big night facing a Seahawks defense which has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (292.5), a league-high 444.5 overall yards per game and eight passing touchdowns.

The Rams' passing attack is led by a dependable pair of wideouts in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Oddsmakers are projecting Kupp will lead the game in receiving yards, as SI Sportsbook has his receiving yard betting market set at 85.5. My projections have Kupp, who has gone over this posted number in three of four games this season, surpassing his betting proposition number Thursday. Kupp is averaging 5.3 receptions and 59 yards in eight career games against Seattle. His three touchdown receptions are tied for the most in his career against any one opponent.

On the ground, Darrell Henderson and the Rams could have a field day against the NFL's worst run defense. Henderson, when healthy, has gained 4.9 yards per rush this season with two touchdowns. Oddsmakers have his rushing betting total set too low at 64.5 yards, as he surpassed that amount against Chicago (70) and Arizona (89).

D.K. DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks, Fantasy Football

Seahawks Player Prop Info

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks possess their own pair of elite wideouts in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Russell Wilson, who has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of four games, has completed 72.5 percent of his passes for 1,044 yards and nine touchdowns. The veteran has protected the ball well from opposing defenses, having failed to throw an interception in 109 attempts. Wilson will face a Rams defense that has only surrendered four passing touchdowns in four games, but ranks 25th in passing yards per game (273.3).

Lockett, who topped 100 receiving yards in his first two games of the year, has cooled off considerably over the past several weeks. He posted only 55 combined receiving yards against Minnesota and San Francisco. In 12 career games against the Rams, the speedy veteran has averaged 3.9 receptions for 58.3 receiving yards per game and tallied four touchdowns. Metcalf, who has scored a touchdown in three of four games this season, can be found at odds of +105 on his anytime-touchdown at SI Sportsbook. Metcalf stands a decent chance of surpassing his reception total of 5.5 against a Rams defense that has allowed Michael Pittman, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to surpass 6-plus receptions this season.

In addition to his star wideouts, Wilson has a reliable option in the run game in Chris Carson, who has three rushing touchdowns on the year. Carson is currently questionable for Thursday night after missing practice this week with a neck injury. Carson, who is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, is facing a Rams defense surrendering 123.5 rushing yards per game and the second-most rushing touchdowns (6). The bruising back is averaging 94.8 rushing yards in four career games the Rams.

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Frank's Thursday Night Football Betting Advice

The Rams are the only team to have each of their first four games go over the posted total by oddsmakers. This NFC West showdown has the second-highest total on the Week 5 NFL board, behind only the titanic Bills-Chiefs matchup in Kansas City (56.5).

Seattle owns the NFL’s worst rushing defense, surrendering 152 yards per game on the ground. Matthew Stafford is 0-3 in his career on the road at Seattle, all while a member of the Lions. Expect the Rams to bounce back from last week’s abysmal home effort against Arizona by exploiting Seattle’s porous run defense, enabling Stafford to get his first win against the raucous 12th Man.

BET:

SI BET: Los Angeles ML (-140)

PROP BETS:

Darrell Henderson, RB, Rams: Over 64.5 (-115) Rushing Yards

Darrell Henderson, RB Rams: Anytime-Touchdown (-105)

Trends:

  • Los Angeles is 6-2 SU in its last eight games against Seattle
  • Seattle is 9-0 SU in its last nine games on Thursday night football
  • The Seahawks are 10-1 SU overall in its last 11 Thursday night games

BETTING RECAP:

We won our NFL Monday night wager for the third week in a row after we hit the Under of 52 in Chargers vs. Raiders. Let’s keep it rolling on Thursday night!

2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 3-1 ATS / Props 4-2 +2.95 units

2021 SI Betting NFL Football YTD: 8-9 ATS & Props +1.65 Units

2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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