NFL Week 6 Betting Recap: Bad Beats and Big Payouts
We hope you played the favorites.
Thought it may be boring, betting the early favorites to win both on the moneyline and Against The Spread (ATS) netted bettors a very profitable day Sunday.
Moneyline favorites finished 9-3 overall and 8-4 ATS, according to odds from SI Sportsbook.
Let's take a look at the good, the bad and the ugly betting from Week 6.
Make your bets for Titans-Bills at SI Sportsbook
Brad Mills/USA Today Sports
THE GOOD
THE 1 P.M. FAVORITES
Every. Single. One.
All of the 1 p.m. ET favorites won both straight-up and ATS on Sunday, the rare 7-0 record in the time slot. The day started with the 2.5-point favorite Dolphins blowing a lead against the Jaguars, but the favorites rallied for a strong day.
Minnesota nearly ruined the perfect afternoon by blowing an 11-point lead and going to overtime against Carolina, but Kirk Cousins hit K.J. Osborn for a score in overtime. If you live bet Carolina to win while they were trailing late, you had +2500 odds.
The perfect showing is even more impressive when you consider that the day's biggest favorites all played in the 1 p.m slot: Colts (-10.5), Rams (-7.5) and Chiefs (-6.5).
A good day to play the favorites indeed.
LISTEN TO FABIANO
SI Fantasy expert Michael Fabiano loved the Darrel(l)'s this week: Chiefs running back Darrel Williams and Rams running back Darrell Henderson Jr.
SI Sportsbook provided a juicy parlay with that information, boosting the odds on both scoring a touchdown from +350 to +400.
We hope you took that bet.
Williams scored on the Chiefs' first drive in Washington, and Henderson found the end zone late in the second quarter against the Giants.
Thank you, Darrel(l)s.
THE STREAK IS OVER
We don't blame you if you decided to sleep instead of watching Jaguars-Dolphins, but the Jaguars won a game! Yes, it actually happened.
Betting on the Jaguars actually turned into a nice payday, provided you paired that with the under. James Robinson scoring a touchdown also had -110 odds, and he plowed his way into the end zone in the third quarter to cash that bet.
Robinson also cashed his receiving over/under but just missed his rushing prop.
For Miami, Jaylen Waddle netted bettors a good payout by scoring the first touchdown (+950) and his anytime touchdown prop cashing at +150.
IT'S OVER
We'll get into this in later detail in the ugly sections, but the over returned in a strong way in the 4 p.m. games with each going over its projection.
The Patriots-Cowboys tilt seemed dicey, but that late pick-6 galvanized a scoring bonanza that pushed the game past its 50.5 projection.
Browns-Cardinals (51) topped 48, and Broncos-Raiders (58) went beyond 44.5.
RUNNING AWAY WITH IT
SI Sportsbook provided three rushing yards props for Packers-Bears: Aaron Jones (58.5), AJ Dillon (37.5), Justin Fields (18.5).
Betting the over on all three provided a solid return.
Jones finished with 76 rushing yards (-125), Dillon had 59 (-120) and Fields ran for 43 yards (-125). All three safely cleared their amounts.
THE BAD
Scott Galvin/USA TODAY Sports
WAIT, HE SCORED?
We don't blame you if you had an anytime touchdown prop bet for Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd against the winless Lions. It seemed logical that Joe Burrow would at least connect with one of his receivers Sunday.
Well, a Cincinnati receiver did find the end zone Sunday.
Auden Tate.
Yes, Auden Tate, who has three catches and 39 total yards on the season and now one touchdown.
Chase (+650), Higgins (+950) and Boyd (+1000) anytime touchdown prop bettors all weeped (along with those who started Boyd in fantasy).
On the bright side, if you did bet Tate to score you cashed at +3700.
FEELING BROWN
While the Browns may have burned you last week, they seemed like a good pick this week at home as 3-point favorites against the Cardinals.
Arizona, while undefeated, had to travel cross-country while dealing with COVID-19 issues. The Browns also played well last week in defeat.
Well, the Browns burned you again in a 37-14 loss. They didn't come remotely close to winning. This defeat wouldn't be necessarily bad if the Browns hadn't burned bettors so badly last week in Los Angeles. Oh, Cleveland.
NOT EVEN CLOSE
SI Sportsbook boosted an intriguing player prop bet featuring two second-year wideouts coming off strong week 5 showings.
Bettors received +275 odds (up from +225) that both Michael Pittman Jr. and Chase Claypool would net 61+ yards.
Things didn't exactly go to plan.
The Colts destroyed the Texans but Pittman had just 35 yards with T.Y. Hilton dominating Houston (again) in his return.
Claypool, in the nightcap, had just 17 yards.
They didn't even top 61 yards combined! Sigh.
PUSH ME TO THE EDGE
Two games finished in pushes Sunday: Rams-Giants and Seahawks-Steelers.
Both easily could have landed on either side of the push.
The Rams basically treated the second half like a preseason game by sitting their starters, and the Giants scored a touchdown and added a 2-point conversion with 6:27 left to make it a manageable 38-11 game (sarcasm).
Wouldn't you know, the line was 49.
Steelers-Seahawks finished with an over/under at 43, and the Steelers ultimately won, 23-20. Seattle hit a late field goal to tie it, and the Seahawks failed to score on their first drive. You had your chances to hit either the over or under.
You instead got a push.
David Butler II/USA TODAY Sports
THE UGLY
THE PICK-SIX
The Patriots entered Sunday with four of their five games going under the points projection. Sunday's game against Dallas featured an over/under of 50.5.
So, let's set the stage: New England is up 21-20 with 2:42 remaining and has the ball. A few first downs and it's over. Patriots backers and under bettors will be happy.
On 2nd-and-15, Mac Jones throws a pass that is tipped into Trevon Diggs' hands. Pick-Six. Brand new game at 27-21, but the under is still in play. Patriots bettors still have a chance to win on the moneyline and ATS (albeit, no under).
One play later, Jones hits Kendrick Bourne for a 75-yard score. The under is gone, but Patriots may win both moneyline and ATS. Things are looking up!
The Cowboys tied the game in regulation before winning on CeeDee Lamb's walk-off touchdown. Cowboys win, 35-29.
The under? Gone. New England covering? Gone. New England moneyline? Gone.
It could have all been different if not for that pick-six.
Dallas only would have needed a field goal to win it had New England punted the ball, and the Patriots would have won with the under hitting had they ran out the clock.
WHERE ARE THE POINTS?
We already discussed how betting the favorites netted bettors a big payday in the 1 p.m. games. We just hope you didn't pair those wins with the overs.
The over hit in just one of eight early games, with the under hitting six times and a push hitting in the other. That push, as we discussed, easily could have been an over had the Giants put up any kind of fight against the Rams.
Vikings-Panthers proved to be the only game to hit the over in the 9:30 a.m/1 p.m. ET slots. Here's how many points the underdogs scored in those time slots: 23, 14, 11, 3, 11, 13, 28 and 6. Yeah, not a good way to start your day.
The under finished 6-4-2 on the day.
More Betting & NFL:
• MNF Bills-Titans: Odds, Analysis and Picks
• Week 7 Early Waiver Wire
• Bye Week Blues: Week 7
• MMQB: Cardinals Stay Undefeated
• The Giants Need To Have A Firesale
Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter: SI.com/newsletters
