NFL Player Props Week 9: Five Bets to Target
After eight weeks of trying to beat the SI Sportsbook with my player prop predictions, I am 21-17 while being +1.05 units on a $100 baseline of each investment.
I climbed off the mat in Week 8 to go 3-2 with player prop bets, earning me a small victory and “bettor week” of sleep. Bills quarterback Josh Allen fell 13 yards short of a win, while DeVonta Smith (1/15) never had a chance as the Eagles buried Detroit with their run game (46/246/4). Philly finished with only 16 passes (114 yards).
If I wager on the favorite, I lay the juice to win $100 (-115 betting line = $115 to win $100). On the underdog side, I wager $100 to win the extra profit ($100 to win $150 with +150 betting line).
When reviewing props lines, I’m looking for flaws in pricing. I would expect most of my investments to come on the overside unless I see an overcorrection in a stat line.
Check Week 9 Odds at SI Sportsbook
John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports
Bet: Under 29.5 rushing yards for Mike Davis (-115)
The Falcons made an effort last week to get Davis more involved in their offense, leading to 66 combined yards with five catches on 14 touches. After seven games, he’s gaining 3.4 yards per rush and 4.8 yards per catch. Atlanta would be much better served by giving his 14 chances a week to another running back. The Falcons had Davis on the field for 60 percent or more of their plays in all seven weeks.
The Saints have one of the better defensive lines, allowing 3.5 yards per rush (best in the league). Only two of 160 rushing attempts gained more than 20 yards.
Two weeks ago, Atlanta barely gave Davis the ball against Miami (four rushes for 10 yards) despite being on the field for 60 percent of their plays. I expect tough sledding for him in this matchup, with minimal chance of hitting on a long run.
Bet: Over 59.5 yards rushing for Josh Jacobs (-115)
A chest injury midway through Week 7 led to an early exit for Jacobs against the Eagles. He came back off the bye week with no injury tag.
Jacobs gained less than 55 rushing yards in all five of his starts, with an unimpressive 3.4 yards per carry. From Weeks 4-6, Las Vegas gave him 18 touches per game while being on the field for about 65 percent of their plays.
The Giants allow 4.4 yards per rush and rank 25th in rushing yards allowed (996), with three backs gaining more than 100 yards (Melvin Gordon - 11/101/1; Alvin Kamara – 26/120; and Ezekiel Elliott – 21/110/1). Three other backs gained more than 65 yards.
The Raiders are a 3.5-point favorite at SI Sportsbook, with an over/under of 46.5. New York played better versus the run over its past two games (44/163) after showing disaster downside in the previous three games (39/170/2, 39/201/1 and 34/139/1). Jacobs will be active this week, and I expect a season-high in rushing yards.
Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports
Bet: Over 74.5 yards receiving for Travis Kelce (-115)
The under for Kelce’s receiving yards had been the play in four of the past five weeks (23, 57, 99, 65, and 27). Over this span, the Chiefs gave him double-digit targets in three matchups (10, 11 and 12). His best play came over the first three weeks (6/76/2, 7/109/2 and 7/104). This decline in yards comes from fewer catches of more than 20 yards, with five over eight games this season compared 23 in 2020.
Green Bay defended tight ends poorly over the first three weeks (6/39/2 8/66/1 and 7/92). It hasn’t faced a top-tier tight end since Week 3 (George Kittle), leading to no touchdowns and short production over the last five matchups (4/29, 4/25, 4/49, 6/51 and 4/42). However, tight ends did catch 84.6 percent of their targets over this span.
Kelce is too good of a player to hold down, and the Packers have to be more concerned with the big-play ability of Tyreek Hill.
Bet: Over 286.5 yards passing for Josh Allen (-115)
Allen fell short of my expectations in his last two home starts, but he dominated the Chiefs (374/4) and Titans (379/3) on the road in Weeks 5 and 6.
Allen has passed for more than 300 yards in three of seven games, but is gaining only 7.3 yards per pass completion (7.9 in 2020).
The Jaguars allowed more than 300 passing yards to four opponents, and quarterbacks are averaging an impressive 8.8 yards per pass attempt.
Their season started with wide receivers reaching the 200-yard mark in receiving in four contests (13/200/1, 14/216/1, 17/238, and 18/238/2). On the year, quarterbacks attempt only 32.4 passes per game against Jacksonville.
Allen will get his passing yards, but his ceiling lies in the success of the Jaguars putting up a fight on the scoreboard. I’m looking for him to get Stefon Diggs rolling.
Bet: Over 55.5 yards rushing for Miles Gaskin
Gaskin has been on the field for only 52.4 percent of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps through eight games. He ranks 20th in running back production (444 combined yards with three touchdowns and 31 catches), while averaging 12.1 touches per game.
The running back doesn’t have a rushing score, and he has yet to gain more than 70 yards on the ground. The Dolphins gave Gaskins 15 and 12 rushes over the last two weeks, respectively, leading to 103 combined yards.
Houston allowed more than 150 yards rushing in five of its past seven games. Seven running backs gained more than 60 yards rushing, highlighted by two players (Jonathan Taylor – 14/145/2 and Darrell Henderson – 14/90/1).
Rushers gain 4.8 yards per carry against the Texans, requiring Gaskin to receive a minimum of 12 carries to reach the over in his yards total in this matchup. I have him projected for 69 rushing yards on 15 carries.
Check Week 9 Odds at SI Sportsbook
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