UFC Vegas 42 Betting Preview: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez

A future title shot is potentially on the line when Max Holloway faces Yair Rodriguez at UFC Vegas 42 in Rodriguez's return following a two-year suspension.

Author:
Casey Olson
Publish date:
Nov 11, 2021

We have a card carried by the main event this week, as two of the UFC’s best strikers will throw down at UFC Vegas 42. With a potential title shot up for grabs, No. 1 Max Holloway welcomes back No. 3 Yair Rodriguez after a two-year absence, and the fighters have made it clear it will be a war Saturday.

This card kicks off earlier than usual, with the prelims firing off at 1 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 4 p.m. ET. The card is scheduled for 11 bouts, and will be aired in its entirety on ESPN+, live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

You know the drill, let’s dive in.

DATE: Saturday, Nov. 13, 2021
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nev.
MATCHES: 11

Check the Odds for UFC Vegas 42 at SI Sportsbook

THE MAIN CARD:

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT (145 LBS): #1 MAX HOLLOWAY (22-6) VS. #3 YAIR RODRIGUEZ (13-2)

This should be a strike fest. Holloway is back after the clinic and absolute beatdown of Calvin Kattar back in January, where Holloway threw 746 strikes and landed 445 significant blows across 5 rounds. Kattar was immediately sent to the hospital, skipping post-fight interviews and for good reason. Prior to that, Holloway dropped two straight to the current champ Alexander Volkanovski in two very close decisions with the second match very debatable and it resulted in a razor-close split decision.

Holloway said he’s out to throw 900-plus strikes against Rodriguez, while Rodriguez simply stated “two (explicit) warriors getting to (explicit) each other up.” Rodriguez gets a huge opportunity here against the former champ, getting a huge name after a two year USADA suspension. It’s apparent the UFC sees him as a top-tier fighter in the division, and his resume can support it. Although his striking isn’t the best, he has a very unorthodox style in there and can land some amazing stuff at crazy angles.

Ultimately, this one goes to Holloway. Rodriguez has had issues in the past with opponents that have more volume and output than him. Case in point: The Korean Zombie out-struck Rodriguez and was one second away from a decision win, before a perfectly placed up-elbow knocked him out in shocking fashion. Frankie Edgar out-landed Rodriguez, 72-16, before winning via TKO/KO doctor stoppage after round 2.

I was front row for the Caceres/Rodriguez fight. Although stats reflect Rodriguez landing double the shots, Caceres threw more than 200 strikes in a split decision.

This will be a rout for Holloway. He’s landed more than 100 significant strikes in his last eight fights, and this should be stylistically a similar matchup to the Kattar fight where he landed 445. The two-year layoff for Rodriguez won’t help matters as well, but I think he can stretch this one out while wearing damage along the way. Holloway typically starts off slow and increases his output into the later rounds. I do like over 2.5 rounds, but I see Holloway securing a finish inside of the 25 minutes.

Prediction: Max Holloway
Bet: Holloway (look via TKO/KO +150)

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT (265 LBS): BEN ROTHWELL (39-13) VS. MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA (18-7-1)

Big Ben Rothwell just won’t go away, and I love it.

The guy is a 52-fight vet and has won three of his last four, including a submission win in his last fight over last weekend’s cult-like star, Chris Barnett.

Speaking of submissions, here he faces a guy that hates them in Marcos Rogerio De Lima. Rogerio De Lima is a very dangerous first-round fighter, with a number of finishes inside of five minutes across his 26 fights. However, he’s horrible from his back if he gets taken down, and typically panics and taps fast if he’s caught in a submission. He’s alternated wins and losses in his last 10 fights, and all five of the losses are via sub. I think I may have just talked my way into a prop here.

Prediction: Ben Rothwell
Bet: Rothwell -150 (look ITD +175)

Amanda Nunes defeats Felicia Spencer at UFC 250 — UFC Handout

WOMEN’S FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT (145 LBS): FELICIA SPENCER (8-3) VS. LEAH LETSON (5-1)

Spencer started her pro career 7-0, which included a first-round submission win over Megan Anderson in her UFC debut. She’s 1-3 since, but two of those losses came against Amanda Nunes and Cyborg. I gotta give it to her, though, as she was able to take it to decisions in both fights, which are serious moral victories for anyone in the division. Here, she takes on Leah Letson, who’s 5-1, having only lost her pro debut.

She hasn’t fought since 2018, which could play a factor for the ring rust believers, but as we’ve seen she’s a bulldog in there. However, she has horrible accuracy on the feet and is very hittable. If Spencer doesn’t have her way on her feet, I see her having no issues taking this one down to the mat. I could see Spencer sinking a rear naked choke at some point, but there is a decent line on the inside the distance prop.

Spencer gets back on track in this one.

Prediction: Felicia Spencer
Bet: Spencer (look ITD +225)

WELTERWEIGHT BOUT (170 LBS): MIGUEL BAEZA (10-1) VS. KHAOS WILLIAMS (12-2)

This should be a good one. I have no issues with it moving to the main card late this week. Both guys have some serious power and are known for their finishes, while having never been finished themselves. Baeza is the more technical of the two, while Williams will throw looping shots from the back row. With a 38% striking accuracy, Williams will have to watch for counters, but Baeza’s limited head movement will allow for Williams to connect at a much better rate compared to what we see on paper. The ticket will be whether Baeza goes for the takedowns or not. He doesn’t want to get into a war on the feet with this guy, in my opinion, and if he can execute the takedown he should have the clear advantage while on the mat. The last two fights in which Baeza secured a takedown (Sato, Aldana), he won via finish. This fight could go either way on the feet, but I see Baeza the more well-rounded of the two.

Prediction: Miguel Baeza
Bet: Pass

BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT (135 LBS): #15 SONG YADONG (17-5-1) VS. JULIO ARCE (17-4)

You gotta give it to Yadong Song: The guy is only 23 and will now have nine UFC fights. He’s faced some steep opponents, and gets no break here against a very game Julio Arce. Arce has won nine of his last 11. Since entering the UFC, Arce is 4-2, yet his two losses were very close split decisions. He has great movement and is very durable.

Yadong has some speed and at times looks to explode, which opens hims up with counters. Yadong stays considerably busy in there and will always look to one up his opponent’s volume, while Arce will be the more precise and technical of the two.

Yadong’s two UFC losses were fights where he was taken down on multiple occasions. Arce should look to do the same, and we’ve seen him go that route in three of his last four fights, excluding the Ewell fight, where he won via TKO/KO and didn’t have to go there. This will be a very close fight and I’ll bite on the dog.

Prediction: Julio Arce
Bet: Arce +118 (look via DEC +320)

PRELIMS PREDICTIONS:

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CORTNEY CASEY defeats LIANA JOJUA
MARC DIAKIESE defeats RAFAEL ALVES
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