NFL Player Props Week 11: Five Bets to Target
After 10 weeks of trying to beat the SI Sportsbook with my player prop predictions, I am 25-23 while being -1.95 units on a $100 baseline of each investment. I was on the wrong side of a Josh Allen prop bet for the third straight week, leading to another 2-3 week.
If I wager on the favorite, I lay the juice to win $100 (-115 betting line = $115 to win $100). On the underdog side, I wager $100 to win the extra profit (100 to win 150 with +150 betting line).
When reviewing all the props lines, I’m looking for flaws in pricing. I would expect most of my investments to come on the overside unless I see an overcorrection in a stat line.
Check Week 11 Betting Lines at SI Sportsbook
Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wis / USA TODAY NETWORK
Bet: Over 81.5 rushing yards for AJ Dillon (-115)
With Aaron Jones out this week, Dillon looks poised to have a top-five running back opportunity in Week 11. Green Bay gave him 82 rushes over its past seven games, leading to 366 yards and two touchdowns while also succeeding in the passing game (12/173/1). The Packers’ running backs have run the ball 232 times for 993 yards. Dillon brings a workhorse feel to Green Bay’s offense, and he should see more than 85 percent of their rushing attempts against the Vikings.
Minnesota allowed 913 rushing yards to running backs over nine games on 208 carries (4.4 YPC). Joe Mixon (29/127/1) and Nick Chubb (21/100) had the most success against the Vikings. Two other offenses also rushed for more 100 yards (Detroit - 24/108 and Baltimore - 24/127/1) from the running back position.
Dillon needs 20-plus touches to pay off, unless he hits on a long run. I have him projected for 21 carries for 97 yards with a 75 percent chance of a rushing score.
Bet: Over 21.5 receiving yards for Myles Gaskin (-115)
Over the last four games, running back gained 791 combined yards against the Jets with 15 touchdowns and 27 catches. New York has struggled to defend running backs in the passing game (68/643/3). Every team, except for the Bills (4/28), gained more than 45 receiving yards. Thirteen different backs gained more 20 yards via the pass.
Miami gave Gaskin 75 touches over its last four games, but he gained only 234 combined yards (2.8 yards per rush; 4.7 yards per catch) while playing 64.3 percent of their offensive snaps. He gained more than 21 yards rushing in three of 10 games. Gaskin isn’t playing well, but his matchup screams a winning day.
Christine Tannous/IndyStar
Bet: Over 33.5 receiving yards for Elijah Moore (-115)
The Jets attempted 148 passes over the last three games, leading to 1,132 passing yards and eight scores. Their wide receivers caught 60 passes for 676 yards and four touchdowns on 88 targets. Moore emerged over the previous three games (6/67, 7/84/2 and 3/44/1 on 20 targets) while receiving WR3 snaps. A change to Joe Flacco at quarterback doesn’t feel like a positive move, but Moore is playing well.
Miami ranks 30th in wide receiver defense (152/1,887/12 on 237 targets). They allowed more than 34 yards receiving to 25 different wideouts over 10 games.
New York tends to rotate in five different wide receivers, with Moore earning WR3 snaps over the last two weeks. He looks to be on a path for five catches for 57 yards.
Bet: Under 3.5 catches for Bryan Edwards (-145)
Last week, Edwards had his best game (3/88/1) in his short NFL career. He has 21 catches for 434 yards and two touchdowns on 39 targets over nine games. Despite leading the Raiders in wide receiver snaps (480—79.1 percent), he has three catches or less over his last eight starts. His catch rate (53.8) restricts his upside.
The Bengals are 19th in the league defending wideouts (128/1,540/7), with most of their failure coming in three matchups (MIN - 22/250/2, GB - 15/242/1 and NYJ - 22/229/1). CB Chidobe Awuzie should cover Edwards on many plays. He likes to keep wide receivers in front of him, leading to a low catch rate.
Ten of Edwards's 21 catches have gained more than 20 yards. I don’t expect him to work the short areas of the field, leading to another low catch total.
Bet: More than 14.5 rushes for Christian McCaffrey (-140)
In his first two starts, McCaffrey received 21 and 24 rushing attempts. He left Week 3 after 21 snaps, leading to only seven carries.
Carolina eased him into action against New England (14/52 – on the field for 49 percent of their plays). Last week, McCaffrey hit the showers early after Carolina jumped out to a big lead against the Cardinals. He finished with 13 rushes for 95 yards while being on the field for 59 percent of the Panthers’ plays.
Offenses ran the ball 28.2 times against Washington over the first six weeks, with quarterbacks and receivers receiving 35 touches (5.8 per game). However, its run defenses improved over the past three games (15/57, 21/83/1 and 13/53), lowering their season average to 4.0 yards per carry.
Carolina now has a running quarterback in Cam Newton who will steal rushes. At the same time, Newton should extend drives and improve the Panthers' scoring.
I expect Carolina to play with I lead, and McCaffrey should be on the field for more than 80 percent of their plays. Over his 19 games between 2019-20, he had more than 14.5 rushes in 13 matchups. I have him projected for 22 rushes for 91 yards.
Check the Latest Lines at SI Sportsbook
More Betting & NFL:
• Which NFL Team Would You Bet to Have Best Record?
• Composite Picks the Winners
• Best Bet: SEC West Parlay
• My Favorite Bet: First Super Bowl Score
• NFL Must Take Antonio Brown Allegations Seriously
