After 14 weeks of trying to beat the SI Sportsbook with my player prop predictions, I am 34-34 while being -6.70 units on a $100 baseline of each investment.
In Week 14, for the second week in a row, I went 3-2. As the season has moved on, the prop offerings have been limited on Friday, especially this week with so many issues with COVID-19.
If I wager on the favorite, I lay the juice to win $100 (-115 betting line = $115 to win $100). On the underdog side, I wager $100 to win the extra profit (100 to win 150 with a +150 betting line).
When reviewing all the props lines, I’m looking for flaws in pricing. I would expect most of my investments to come on the overside unless I see an overcorrection in a stat line.
Bet: More than 225.5 passing yards for Mac Jones (-120)
Over the Patriots' seven-game winning streak, Jones has passed for over 220 yards in only two matchups (Week 7 vs. NYJ – 307/2 and Week 12 vs. TEN – 310/2). Over this span, New England’s opponents scored only nine touchdowns, leading to a high number of runs by the Patriots (35 per game).
The Colts have the fourth-best defense against running backs (20.31 FPPG) while allowing eight rushing touchdowns. In Week 13, Tampa scored five times against them with their running backs, leading to 168 combined yards and seven catches. However, Indy does allow 4.4 yards per rush, which gives New England a winning window on the ground.
Jones should gain his edge using his tight ends (Colts allow 82 catches for 867 yards and six touchdowns), and their defense struggled with wide receivers in three matchups (15/241/2, 17/220/2, 23/253/2). Indy has been one of the better offenses in the league over the past eight games (32.5 points per game), inviting more passes by New England. I have Jones projected to pass for 248 yards with a pair of touchdowns.
Bet: More than 25.5 receiving yards for Hunter Henry (-110)
As I mentioned in Mac Jones's profile for this week’s game, the Colts have risk defending tight ends (16.16 FPPG – 30th). They’ve allowed over 15.00 points to tight ends in seven of their 13 contests, and 11 players gained over 26 yards receiving at tight end.
The lack of passes by the Patriots has led to Henry gaining fewer than 26 yards in six of his past eight matchups. His season started with five games with over 30 receiving yards (3/31, 2/42, 5/36, 4/32/1, 6/75/1). Between Weeks 4-10, he scored seven touchdowns on that seven-game stretch, making his player prop for scoring an anytime touchdown (+260) an intriguing option as well. Henry looks to be on a path to catch four passes for 46 yards with a 60% chance of scoring.
Bet: More than 95.5 yards receiving for Davante Adams (-115)
The Packers’ passing game has been on the rise over their last four games (292/0, 385/4, 307/2, 341/4), leading to an uptick in production for Adams over his last three starts (7/115/2, 8/104, 10/121/2). Over his first nine games, he gained over 100 yards in only three matchups.
SI Sportsbook now has the Packers’ favored by 6.5 points, which should be a significant sign that Lamar Jackson doesn’t play on Sunday.
Baltimore has allowed the most completions over 20 (56) and 40 (13) yards in the NFL. Wide receivers gain 15.1 yards per catch, and the loss of CB Marlon Humphrey should lead to more damage in the deep passing games.
Green Bay may choose to slow down the game with the run, but their top receiving option still should have plenty of chances in the passing game. I have Adams projected for seven catches for 113 yards with one score.
Bet: More than 78.5 yards receiving for Diontae Johnson (-115)
Over his previous 11 games, Johnson has 76 catches for 954 yards and five touchdowns on 120 targets. His success breaks down to 6.9 catches for 87 yards and 0.45 touchdowns on 10.9 targets per game. He has gained over 80 yards receiving in five of his last seven starts.
The Titans inched up to 31st defending wide receivers (200/2,569/16). Their defense has struggled five games against wideouts (ARI – 17/246/4, SEA – 19/326/2, NYJ – 15/264/2, KC – 24/296/2, LAR – 21/234). Tennessee gave up more than 80 yards receiving to 11 wideouts in 13 games.
Ben Roethlisberger has played better over his last four games (273/3, 263/1, 236/2, 308/3), with three of these contests coming on the road. He tends to be a better player at home, and the Steelers should look to attack with their top two wide receivers in this matchup.
Bet: More than 56.5 yards receiving for Chase Claypool (-115)
I feel like I’m stealing a page out of Jen Piacenti’s playbook by posting an over play for two of Pittsburgh’s wide receivers in Week 15. Last year, Claypool was a waiver wire darling thanks to his ability to score (11 touchdowns) and success at home (36/55/8). In 2021, he only has one touchdown all year while missing a pair of games. The Steelers looked his way 29 times over his last four starts, leading to three productive games in yards (5/93, 3/82, 8/93).
A matchup with the Titans should bring out the best in his game. Claypool averages 16.0 yards per catch with some chances in the run game (10/56). I fully expect him to score this week (+188), and his multi-touchdown line (+1,500) could be in play. For kicks, a small wager on 3+ scores would pay $7,500.
I have him projected for four catches for 69 yards and a half of a touchdown when I made the early projections. On my next update (comes out Saturday), Claypool will be pushed higher in the ranking to ensure fantasy owners don’t miss a breakout opportunity in the daily games.
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