March Madness First Four Bets: Wyoming vs. Indiana, Texas Southern vs. Texas A&M-CC
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The long wait is over. March Madness is here. And the matchup people can’t stop talking about—Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Texas Southern—takes place tonight.
Okay, maybe not quite. It’s the first of the First Four games with the No. 16 seed on the line and the opportunity to play No. 1 Kansas. But it’s exciting nonetheless that these teams are kicking off weeks of unfettered college hoops madness.
Later in the evening, Indiana meets Wyoming for the opportunity to get into the Round of 64 as a No. 12 seed and meet No. 5 Saint Mary’s.
Many people will have their brackets penciled in before these games take place, but there are some quality First Four teams playing in Dayton. Indiana and Wyoming are both capable of winning a game in the Big Dance, as are Notre Dame and Rutgers, who will battle Wednesday for the right to face No. 6 Alabama in the West.
Remember: UCLA made a run all the way to the Final Four in 2021 from the First Four. Crazier things have happened. It’s March.
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Julie Bennett/AP
No. 16 Texas A&M Corpus Christi (23–11) vs. No. 16 Texas Southern (18–12)
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET | truTV
Spread: Texas A&M CC +4 (-118) | Texas Southern -4 (-110)
Moneyline: Texas A&M (+138) | Texas Southern (-188)
Over/Under: Under 135.5 (-118) | Over 135.5 (-110)
Texas A&M Corpus Christi won its final four games to capture the Southland Tournament Title and set up a First Four date with its in-state counterpart, Texas Southern. The Tigers, also winners of four in a row, won the SWAC Tournament championship game by a whopping 25 points.
The Islanders are new to the tournament—they made one appearance in 2007, a first-round exit. Texas Southern, though, has become accustomed to the big dance. The Tigers have now made six of the last eight tournaments, but only one of those previous five performances did not end in a Round of 64 loss.
A&M CC has some encouraging aspects on offense. The Islanders average 15 assists per game, a top-50 mark. Their ball distribution allows for multiple players—forward Isaac Mushila (13.8 ppg) and guard Trevian Tennyson (11.8 ppg)—to average double-digit points, and both are capable of going for 20-plus points on any given night. Three of the team’s top-four scorers shoot 35% or better from three-point range.
A&M CC is an above-average rebounding team (38.4 rpg) and among the nation’s best at steals (8.5 spg).
Now, for the negative. The Islanders (No. 243) are the lowest-ranked team in the field on KenPom and it’s not particularly close. They turn the ball over at an alarming rate (14.2 times per game) and their shot blocking is nonexistent. Their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics are paltry, though defense is their strength by a wide margin, and their adjusted strength of schedule ranks dead last out of 358 teams.
Texas Southern won’t win many shootouts. The Tigers average less than 70 ppg and no player averages double digits. John Walker III averages a team-best 9.9 ppg. It’sa poor shooting team (below 44% from the field, 68% from the free-throw line and 32% from deep) and turn the ball over even more than the Islanders (14.9 PPG).
The Tigers survive on their defense. They rank just outside the top 100 defensive units on KenPom and allow 65.5 ppg, just a few spots behind Gonzaga. Texas Southern is also one of 27 teams that holds opponents below 40% from the field.
Texas Southern is significantly more battle-tested than Texas A&M Corpus Christi. The Tigers played a difficult non-conference schedule and even scored a huge road win over then-No. 20 Florida. Given the Tigers’ recent performances, scoring shouldn’t be a huge concern—they tallied 87 points last time out—and they should limit the Islanders offensively enough to keep this game from hitting the over.
BET: Texas Southern -3.5, Under 136.5
Darron Cummings/AP
No. 12 Indiana (20–13) vs. No. 12 Wyoming (18–12)
Time: 9:10 p.m. | truTV
Spread: Indiana -4 (-118) | Wyoming +4 (-110)
Moneyline: Indiana (-200) | Wyoming (+155)
Over/Under: Under 132.5 (-110) | Over 132.5 (-118)
Kyle Wood’s Analysis:
The Hoosiers’ Big Ten Tournament run came up short in the semifinals, where they lost to Iowa, 80-77. Wins over Michigan and Illinois were enough to get them into a First Four game and they got a tough draw against a good Wyoming team.
The Cowboys also fell short in their conference semifinals, losing 68-61 to Boise State.
Indiana is propped up on both sides of the ball by forward Trayce Jackson-Davis. He leads the team in scoring (18.1), rebounding (8.2) and blocks (2.4). He went on a tear in the conference tourney and averaged more than 25 ppg. Jackson-Davis gets some help on offense from guard Xavier Johnson, who leads the team in assists (5.0), and forward Race Thompson, who’s second on the team in rebounds.
IU’s strength is its defense, though. It’s in the elite group of schools that hold opponents under 40% from the field and the Hoosiers' defense ranks 21st on KenPom. Indiana held four of its last five opponents below 70 points and allows 65.9 ppg.
Wyoming also runs everything through its star forward. Graham Ike leads the team in scoring (19.6) and rebounding (9.6). The difference for the Cowboys is Ike has a second star to shoulder the scoring load: guard Hunter Maldonado, who’s second in scoring (18.4) and first in assists (6.3). Wyoming has the edge over Indiana offensively, averaging 1.5 more points per game despite running a much slower tempo. The Cowboys are also an above average three-point shooting team despite Ike and Maldonado not being outside shooters. Drake Jeffries is 25th in the country in three-point makes, shoots 42% from outside and has only taken 15 two-pointers all season.
Defensively, Wyoming grades out worse than Indiana on KenPom despite allowing marginally fewer points per game. The Cowboys counting stats on defense are dismal, though—four steals and two blocks as a team.
Indiana is the superior team and is far more tested against top-flight competition in the Big Ten than Wyoming was in the Mountain West. Still, I’m going with the underdog. The Cowboys’ offensive proficiency inside and out with a forward like Ike and shooters like Jeffries can get the best of an elite defense like IU’s. They can keep it close in what should be a low-scoring game between a pair of slow offenses.
BET: Wyoming +4, Under 132.5
Matthew Idler/AP Photo
Frankie Taddeo’s Analysis:
Indiana is making its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2016 and head coach Mike Woodson has the club playing solid basketball. Indiana posted two impressive upsets last week in the Big Ten tournament, upsetting Michigan 74-69 as 3-point underdogs, followed by shocking top-seeded Illinois, 65-63, as 5.5-point underdogs.
Normally, this would be a team that potentially would be in a letdown spot after suffering a gut-wrenching, last-second loss to Iowa in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament. However, this Hoosiers team appears to feel disrespected by the committee’s decision to force the club to take part in the play-in games.
The Hoosiers are 4-0 against the spread (ATS) over their last four games but it’s important to note they were underdogs in each of those wins. In the play-in game, Indiana opened as 3-point favorites against Wyoming before strong support drove the Hoosiers up to 4-point favorites over the Cowboys.
Sophomore forward Trayce Jackson-Davis was sensational in the Big Ten tournament, averaging 25.3 points and 8.7 rebounds. Meanwhile, junior point guard Xavier Johnson has been sensational commanding the Indiana offense, averaging 18.1 points and 6.8 assists over the last month well above his season averages (12.3 and 3.8).
Wyoming enters Tuesday with a 25-8 record, capped by a runner-up finish in the Mountain West Conference after losing 68-61 to Boise State in the semifinals as 2.5-point underdogs. The Cowboys are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2015 when they lost 71-54 as 7.5-point underdogs to No. 5 Northern Iowa.
The Cowboys have struggled of late, losing five of their last nine games, which has resulted in a disappointing 3-6 ATS mark over that stretch.
Wyoming leans heavily on sophomore big-man Graham Ike (19.6 ppg, 9.6 rpg) and senior guard Hunter Maldonado (18.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg and 6.3 apg).
You always want to head into the tournament trending in the right direction and Indiana checks that box. Respected money jumped in early and hard driving this line up within minutes of the opening number hitting the board. Let’s follow their lead.
BET: Indiana -4
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