Duke vs. North Carolina Odds and Best Bet for Final Four Matchup
Final Four Betting Breakdown: Duke vs. North Carolina
Basketball fans are on the cusp of witnessing history when two bitter ACC Blue Blood programs meet for the first time in the history of the men’s NCAA tournament.
Duke, who is playing their best basketball of the season throughout March Madness, is determined to get Mike Krzyzewski to his ninth Championship appearance and potentially a sixth national title after delivering him to his 13th Final Four in his final season as head coach. The Blue Devils won 13 of their last 15 games and now find themselves in the role of being favorites for the 38th time in 39 games. The only game when Duke was not a favorite occurred in November, they were 8.5-point underdogs to Gonzaga in the Continental Tire Challenge in Las Vegas.
North Carolina, under first-year head coach Hubert Davis, has come together as a team at the most important time of the season. The Tar Heels are 16-3 in their last 19 games overall and are looking to get back to the NCAA Championship game for the third time in the last six tournaments. North Carolina spoiled Coach K’s final home game at Carmeron Indoor Stadium as 11.5-point underdogs will now look to upset the Blue Devils for the second time this season.
Final Four betting previews: Kansas-Villanova | Duke-North Carolina | Kansas-Villanova Best Bet | Favorite Bets
Bob Donnan; Jamie Rhodes/USA TODAY Sports
Duke and UNC Point Spread and Odds
No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils
Spread: No. 8 North Carolina +4 | No. 2 Duke -4
Total: 150.5– Over | Under 150.5
Moneyline: UNC +160 | Duke -200
Game Info: Saturday, April 2, 2022 8:49 p.m. EST | CBS
Records: UNC: 28-9 (SU); 20-16-1 (ATS) | DUKE: 32-6 (SU); 20-16-2 (ATS)
Site: Caesars Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has ticked down since the opener, displaying No. 2 Duke as 4.5-point favorites over No. 2 North Carolina to just a 4-point demand at SI Sportsbook. The line move mostly involves both public and respected steam being aligned that this game will be closer than the oddsmakers are predicting.
How Did We Get Here?
North Carolina, who is 9-1 straight up in their last ten games, has rewarded bettors with a lucrative 8-2 against the spread mark over that span. The Tarheels advanced to the Final Four after blowing out Marquette, 95-63, as 3.5-point favorites in the opening round followed by upsetting No. 1 seed Baylor, 93-86 in overtime as 5.5-point underdogs in the second round. In the Sweet 16, North Carolina beat UCLA, 73-66, as 3-point underdogs. Then they blew out this year’s Cinderella squad, St. Peter's, in the Elite Eight 69-49 as 8.5-point favorites.
In the NCAA Tournament, the Tar Heels have been targets of sharp money in Vegas several times, and they certainly have not disappointed. Hubert Davis’ squad shares betting supremacy with Villanova as the only teams to own perfect 4-0 ATS marks.
Duke has taken their level of play to another level in the NCAA Tournament. Since losing to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game, the Blue Devils have become a focused team on a mission to send their retiring Hall of Fame coach out on a high note. Duke beat Cal State Fullerton, 78-61, but failed to cover the 18.5-point spread in the first round after allowing a meaningless slam dunk in the final seconds. In the second round, the Blue Devils got by Michigan State, 85-76, as 6-point favorites and then outlasted Texas Tech, 78-73, as 1-point underdogs in the Sweet 16. In the Elite Eight, Duke easily got past Arkansas, 78-69, as 4-point favorites.
History In The Making
One of the biggest rivalries in all of sports gets taken to another level on Saturday. These two Blue Blood programs have met 256 times, with North Carolina holding a 142-115 edge.
The teams split the regular-season meetings, but a deeper dive reveals that North Carolina is 6-4 SU while holding an impressive 8-2 ATS edge in the 10 most recent meetings overall.
One interesting item to note, when these two clubs face-off basketball fans are treated to immense offensive production. In fact, the last six meetings which are 6-0 to the over, have surpassed the posted total by oddsmakers by an eye-popping average of 20.1 points per game.
Gerry Broome/AP Photo
North Carolina: Elite Front-Line Production, Dynamic Backcourt
North Carolina’s big-man Armando Bacot has been one of the best players in the tournament averaging 16.5 points, 15.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. The junior has recorded an astounding 29 double-doubles in 37 games this season. In two meetings with Duke this season, Bacot averaged 17.5 points and 6.0 rebounds. Duke’s length on the frontline has limited Bacot’s ability to post elite production on the glass, marking the only two times since the start of January he has been held to single-digit rebounds.
The Tar Heels possess four players averaging double-digits including a dynamic backcourt duo. Caleb Love, averaging 18 points per game in the tournament, has been lethal from beyond the arc draining 15-of-40 (38%) attempts. In two meetings with Duke this season, the sophomore averaged 15.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists. Love has had issues with the defensive looks Duke has thrown at him this season hitting only 7-of-27 (25.9%) shots from the field.
R.J. Davis has played outstanding in the tournament averaging 13.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.0 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. In two meetings with Duke this season, the sophomore averaged 16.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals.
Senior Forward, Brady Manek, has been sensational for Hubert Davis’ crew averaging 21.5 points per game in the tournament, thanks to hitting at a 47.1% clip on 34 attempts from beyond the arc. In two meetings with Duke this season, the Oklahoma transfer enjoyed solid production averaging 20.5 points 8.5 rebounds, while hitting 11-of-20 (55%) from deep. Manek will be relied upon to contribute on both ends of the floor in order for the Tar Heels to advance to the Championship game.
Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP
Duke: Peaking at the Perfect Time
Duke, easily the most talented team in the Final Four, looks like they are coming together at the right time. The Blue Devils' amazing play has not gone unnoticed by oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook who now list Mike Krzyzewsk’s squad as the overall betting favorites in the Futures’ market at +160.
One of the players who has stepped up in the tournament for Duke is Jeremy Roach, who is averaging 12.8 points and 3.8 assists per game. The talented freshman is shooting a blistering 49.7% from the field. In two meetings with North Carolina this season, Roach was efficient, hitting 8-of-11 (72.7%) shots while converting 5-of-6 (83.3%) from the free-throw line. Roach has gained the trust of the Duke coaching staff and is averaging 35.5 minutes per game in the tournament and could be sitting on a big effort on Saturday.
Freshman Paolo Banchero was named the Most Outstanding Player (MOP) of the West Region after averaging 18.4 points. 9.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists. Banchero’s game is way beyond what you would expect from a first-year player. Under Coach K’s tutelage he's transformed into a dominant force in the tournament, shooting 51.0% from the field. In two meetings with North Carolina this season, Banchero averaged 18.0 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists.
The wildcards for the Blue Devils are forwards AJ Griffin and Wendell Moore. The two players have seen increased minutes in the tournament and have produced solid production. Moore is averaging 13.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists. A deeper dive reveals that the versatile junior has scored in double-digits in seven consecutive games. Griffin, another of Duke’s emerging freshmen, has scored double-digits in three of Duke's four tournament games. The Blue Devils are hoping that Griffin can repeat his career-best effort during the team's regular-season matchup against their ACC foes when he poured in 27 points on 11-of-17 (64.7%) shooting.
Key Match-Up
As talented as both backcourts are, the key match-up is North Carolina’s Armando Bacot against Duke’s 7’0” big-man Mark Williams. Duke’s imposing front-line sophomore is averaging 14.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in the tournament. However, perhaps his biggest contribution has come on the defensive end where he is averaging an impressive 4.0 blocks per game. In two meetings against North Carolina, Williams averaged 12.5 points and 9.5 rebounds. A review of the film shows that Williams has imposed his will on North Carolina impressively hitting 12-of-15 (80.0%) shots from the field, while also keeping Bacot off the boards in both matchups. Bacot, who is coming off a massive 20 point, 22 rebound effort against St. Peter’s in the Elite Eight, will need to play at that elite level against the most imposing rim defender in the tournament.
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports
First-Year Coach vs. the G.O.A.T
With 46 seasons as a head coach, Mike Krzyzewski is the all-time winningest coach in men's college basketball with 1,196 wins. Hubert Davis, in his first year as head coach, has 28 victories. Davis is a former Tar Heels star who played in the Final Four in 1991, as well as was part of the North Carolina coaching staff in 2016 and 2017 under Roy Williams.
Elite Offensive Production
If you love seeing up-tempo, high-scoring offenses, then find a spot on your couch on Saturday night. Duke (80.4 ppg) and North Carolina (78.6 ppg) both rank among the top offenses in the country. Both clubs are the two-highest scoring teams left in the tournament with North Carolina averaging 82.5 points per game while Duke is only slightly behind at 79.8 points per contest. The Tar Heels' offense is averaging almost four points more per game in the tournament over their season average. In the last six meetings, Duke and North Carolina have combined to average 171.7 points per game. The total on the game opened at 149.5 late Sunday night in Vegas and currently sits at 151 at SI Sportsbook.
Final Breakdown and Prediction
Sharp money in Vegas and at SI Sportsbook has backed both Duke and North Carolina multiple times in this tournament.
In the Final Four, sharp bettors are supporting the team which has not let them down in their tournament investments and are grabbing the points with North Carolina. The last time these two clubs met, the Tar Heels found their way to the free-throw line 22 times, converting 19 (86.4%) en route to a 94-81 win. This matchup, which will likely be one for the ages, could easily come down to the final possession lending solid value to a team that is 2-0 ATS as underdogs in this tournament.
BET: NORTH CAROLINA +4
Check Out the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook
SI NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL BET REVIEW
2022 March Madness: 9-9 ATS
2022 NCAA Conference Tournaments: 7-1 ATS
2021/2022 Overall: 27-26 ATS
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
