Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tips off Wednesday night.
It’s the Finals favorite Warriors up against Luka Dončić’s Mavericks. Beyond the allure of the Steph Curry-Dončić matchup, these two teams have some rather famous history dating back to the last time they faced off in the postseason.
Golden State, a heavy favorite to win the series, is favored to win Game 1.
For this same-game parlay, I’m staying away from the spread altogether and instead looking at two player props and the point total. Keep reading for each leg and its explanation and review my series preview here.
Regular-season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoffs record: 60-58
Time: 9 p.m. ET | TNT
Spread: Mavericks +5.5 (-118) | Warriors -5.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Mavericks (+175) | Warriors (-213)
Total: Under 214.5 (-110) | Over 214.5 (-110)
Leg 1: Luka Dončić Over 8.5 Rebounds
Dončić’s rebounding is one of the best aspects of his game on this postseason run. He’s led the Mavericks in rebounding in eight of the 10 games he’s played, grabs 10.1 per game in the playoffs and has put together three games in a row with double-digit boards. Golden State is a slightly above-average rebounding team, but that shouldn’t do much to hamper Dončić’s rebounding success given the small lineups coach Jason Kidd sends out that put the onus to rebound on his star.
Leg 2: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 11.5 Points
Dinwiddie is coming off his best game of the playoffs and he’s found his outside shot over the last two games. He scored 30 off the bench in Game 7 against the Suns and connected on 5-7 threes for the second straight game. Those two outings in win-or-go-home games redeemed him from averaging seven points through the first five games of the series, including a playoff-low two points in Game 5.
In two meetings with the Warriors in the regular season, Dinwiddie averaged 20.5 ppg—both games came after he was traded to Dallas. Just a handful of threes will put Dinwiddie over this total, as long as he gets enough shots up.
Leg 3: Over 214.5 Total Points
Golden State’s 114.2 ppg is the highest mark in the playoffs, while Dallas’ 106.2 ppg average is a bit more modest. Both teams pride themselves on their defense, but that hasn’t stopped either of them from allowing some astronomical point totals. The Warriors gave up 134 to the Grizzlies and 126 to the Nuggets and the Mavericks yielded 120-plus to the Suns in back-to-back games.
Two of the regular-season meetings between these teams went over and two went under. Based on their recent play, I can see each of these teams finishing somewhere in the neighborhood of 110 points, which would easily send this game over.
BET: Three-Leg, Same-Game Parlay (+350)
- Luka Dončić Over 8.5 Rebounds
- Spencer Dinwiddie Over 11.5 Points
- Over 214.5 Total Points
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