2022-23 Big 12 College Football Futures Betting Breakdown
Brent Venables will guide Oklahoma to a Big 12 Championship in his first season as head coach, according to the oddsmakers.
SI Sportsbook has installed the Sooners as lukewarm +160 favorites in a conference that could easily be won by a handful of teams.
Oklahoma, who has won the Big 12 in six of the last seven seasons, is tied for the fifth-lowest odds to win the national championship at +2500 odds.
Texas is coming off a 5-7 campaign in Steve Sarkisian’s first year at the helm and is expected to make major strides in 2022 with a regular-season win total set at 9.5 games, aligned with the second-lowest odds to win the conference at +250.
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However, the expectations of a conference title seem a bit unrealistic after a deeper dive reveals that the Longhorns are underdogs in all three of their most difficult games against Alabama, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State rewarded bettors in 2021 with the second-best against the spread (ATS) record (10-3-1) of any team - finishing only behind Michigan (11-3 ATS). This season, oddsmakers believe the Cowboys will contend once again and have installed Mike Gundy’s squad as the third betting choice at +550 odds.
Baylor, the defending Big 12 Champions, lands as a solid long shot target at +600 odds provided Blake Shapen can take the Bears’ passing attack to another level.
College Football Betting Previews: SEC | Big Ten | 2023 No. 1 Pick | Heisman | ACC
2022-23 Big 12 Championship Odds
Oklahoma +160
Texas +250
Oklahoma State +550
Baylor +600
TCU +1400
Iowa State +1800
West Virginia +2200
Kansas State +2500
Texas Tech +4000
Kansas +25000
BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK
TOP CONTENDERS: Red River Rivalry Has Title Implications
Oklahoma Sooners (+160)
2022-23 NCAA championship odds: +2500 (Tied-fifth)
Regular-season betting win total: 9.5
Head coach: Brent Venables
Key players: QB Dillon Gabriel, RB Eric Gray, WR Marvin Mims
2021 records: 11-2 straight-up (SU) / 6-6-1 ATS
Venables, who served in a variety of roles (1999-2011) at Oklahoma prior to being the defensive coordinator for Clemson for the last four seasons, heads back to where he started and takes for new USC coach Lincoln Riley.
Former UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel moved to Oklahoma to become the starter. Gabriel brings experience and production to Norman after posting 70 passing touchdowns and eight rushing scores in three seasons with the Knights.
Although the team will experience massive changes on the sidelines and under center, Oklahoma opens the season as a massive 33-point home favorite over UTEP.
The Sooners will face two tremendous tests in 2022 beginning with their first road game of the season in Week 3 at Nebraska as five-point road favorites.
In Week 6, the Sooners head to the Cotton Bowl for the Red River Showdown with Texas. Oklahoma has won four consecutive meetings and six of the last seven against the Longhorns and is a three-point favorites to extend the winning streak to five.
Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK
Texas Longhorns (+250)
2022-23 NCAA championship odds: +5000
Regular-season betting win total: 9.5 (Tied-13th)
Head coach: Steve Sarkisian
Key players: QB Quinn Ewers, RB Bijan Robinson, WR Isaiah Neyor
2021 records: 5-7 SU / 5-7 ATS
After redshirting his freshman year at Ohio State (due to current Heisman favorite and 2023 No. 1 draft pick favorite C.J. Stroud), heralded signal-caller Quinn Ewers went home to lead a Longhorn squad that only won five games last season.
In Sarkisian’s second year in Austin, Texas is expected to get off to a strong start as it opens as a 38-point home favorites over UL-Monroe.
Bettors will get an immediate look at how good this club is in 2022 when the best team in the country comes to Darrell K Royal Memorial Stadium. The Tide are heavy 14.5-point road favorites to give Texas its first loss of the season.
The Longhorns are three-point underdogs in the Red River rivalry, followed by being two-point underdogs at Oklahoma State two weeks later on Oct. 22.
Bettors grabbing the +250 odds will need to double last season’s win total to win the Big 12 with one of the Big 12’s worst defenses last season that surrendered the fourth-most points a game (31.1) and the third-most rushing yards per game (201.6).
LONG SHOTS: Defending Big 12 Champions Will Challenge
Oklahoma State Cowboys (+550)
2022-23 NCAA championship odds: +5000 (Tied-13th)
Regular-season betting win total: 8.5
Head coach: Mike Gundy
Key players: QB Spencer Sanders, RB Dominic Richardson, WR Braydon Johnson
2021 records: 12-2 SU / 10-3-1 ATS
The Cowboys’ defense led the Big 12 in 2021 by allowing 16.8 points per game on the strength of a stingy run defense that surrendered a paltry 89.2 rushing yards per game. The pass rush will be powerful again as sack leaders Brock Martin (11.5) and Collin Oliver (nine) return to form one of the best defensive line tandems in the country.
Quarterback Spencer Sanders showed flashes of excellence in his junior campaign, highlighted by career highs in touchdown passes (20) and rushing scores (6). However, he also threw a career-high 12 interceptions and needs to improve his ball security for the Cowboys to contend for its first conference championship since 2011.
Mike Gundy’s squad opens the season as a 20.5-point home favorite against Central Michigan but finds itself as two-point road underdogs three weeks later in Waco, Texas, against defending Big 12 champion Baylor.
The Cowboys get the luxury of hosting this year’s meeting with Texas and are installed as 1.5-point favorites in the Week 7 battle.
‘Bedlam’ takes place in the penultimate regular-season game when Oklahoma State heads to Norman as seven-point road underdogs against the Sooners.
SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK
Baylor Bears (+600)
2022-23 NCAA championship odds: +7500 (Tied-17th)
Regular-season betting win total: 8.5
Head coach: Dave Aranda
Key players: QB Blake Shapen, RB Taye McWilliams, WR Gavin Holmes
2021 records: 12-2 SU / 10-4 ATS
The reigning Big 12 champions stand out as the strongest value in this market at +600 odds. The Bears, who led the conference in rushing at 219.3 yards per game, turn to Taye McWilliams after leading rushers Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner left for the NFL.
The team will also hand starting quarterback duties to Shapen after giving the bulk of the work to Gerry Bohanon last season.
Bohanon throw for 40 yards on 7-of-17 passing in the 21-7 victory over Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl, while Shapen threw for three scores in the Big 12 title game.
With home games against Albany and Texas State combined with road dates against BYU and Iowa State, the Bears could be 4-0 or 3-1 entering their first big test against Oklahoma State to open October in which they’re 1.5-point home favorites.
However, Dave Aranda’s club is listed as sizable nine-point road underdog in its Week 9 showdown with Oklahoma.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
MOON SHOT: Kansas State Could Surprise
Kansas State (+2500)
2022-23 NCAA championship odds: +20000
Regular-season betting win total: 6.5
Head coach: Chris Klieman
Key players: QB Adrian Martinez, RB Deuce Vaughn, WR Phillip Brooks
2021 records: 8-5 SU / 7-5-1 ATS
Kansas State will be fun to watch in 2022 now that former Nebraska dual-threat quarterback Adrian Martinez is teaming up with Deuce Vaughn.
Vaughn, who gained 1,872 yards from scrimmage and 22 total touchdowns last season, is a deep sleeper to win this year’s Heisman Trophy at +15000 odds.
Martinez, who tallied 80 touchdowns in 39 games with Nebraska, could thrive in Chris Klieman’s offense if he can clean up the turnovers (30 career interceptions).
Respected money has backed the over in the club’s season win total (6.5) in early wagering, believing the projection was set too low despite tough home games against Oklahoma State and Texas combined with brutal road dates at Oklahoma and Baylor.
REST OF THE FIELD: Iowa State Can Finish Above .500
TCU Horned Frogs (+1400)
2022-23 NCAA championship odds: +20000
Regular-season betting win total: 6.5
Head coach: Sonny Dykes
Key players: QB Max Duggan, RB Kendre Miller, WR Quentin Johnston
2021 records: 5-7 SU / 2-9-1 ATS
Iowa State (+1800)
2022-23 NCAA championship odds: +15000
Regular-season betting win total: 6.5
Head coach: Matt Campbell
Key players: QB Hunter Dekkers, RB Jirehl Brock, WR Xavier Hutchinson
2021 records: 7-6 SU / 5-8 ATS
West Virginia (+2200)
2022-23 NCAA championship odds: +20000
Regular-season betting win total: 5.5
Head coach: Neal Brown
Key players: QB JT Daniels, RB Tony Mathis, WR Sam James
2021 records: 6-7 SU / 6-7 ATS
Texas Tech (+4000)
2022-23 NCAA championship odds: +50000
Regular-season betting win total: 5.5
Head coach: Joey McGuire
Key players: QB Tyler Shough, RB Tahj Brooks, WR J.J. Sparkman
2021 records: 7-6 SU / 7-5-1 ATS
Kansas Jayhawks (+3300)
2022-23 NCAA championship odds: +100000
Regular-season betting win total: 2.5
Head coach: Lance Leipold
Key players: QB Jalon Daniels, Devin Neal, WR Luke Grimm
2021 records: 2-10 SU / 4-8 ATS
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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