NFL Week 3 Betting Recap: Bad Beats and Big Payouts
Here’s an early Week 4 betting tip: Bet on the under in the upcoming Sunday Night Football game between the Chiefs and Buccaneers in Tampa.
Sunday night’s snoozefest between the 49ers and Broncos that the Broncos “won” 11-10 marked the third straight Sunday Night Football game that failed to clear the over, joining Cowboys-Buccaneers in Week 1 and Packers-Bears in Week 2.
Prime-time games have proven to be quite profitable for those backing the under with a 7-2 mark entering Monday’s Cowboys-Giants tilt. Only Titans-Bills and last Thursday’s Steelers-Browns have cleared the projected totals.
Sunday proved to be a tricky day for bettors as the SI Sportsbook betting favorites went just 6-8 straight-up (SU), finishing less than .500 for the first time and 4-10 against the spread (ATS). Only one favorite covered in the 4 p.m. window.
Let’s get to the good, bad and ugly from Week 3 betting, and we hope you handled any losses better than Ken Dorsey.
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THE GOOD
The Under Delivers
Betting on the under at SI Sportsbook proved profitable for the third straight week with an 8-5-1 mark. The under is now 29-17-1 for lines posted at SI Sportsbook.
This mark could have been even better, as we will detail in the ugly section.
It’s worth noting that the under has declined in three straight weeks after starting 11-5 in Week 1 to 10-6 in Week 2 to this week’s record.
Betting On Lamar
Lamar Jackson rewarded those who bet on a boosted SI Sportsbook parlay at +550 odds that he would score an anytime touchdown, the Ravens would cover as 2.5-point favorites against the Patriots, and the game would top 44.5 points.
Jackson rushed for 107 yards and one touchdown in the Ravens’ 37-26 win, the highest-scoring affair of the day. His last touchdown prop cashed at +850 odds, and he cleared his rushing yards, passing touchdowns and passing yards props.
The new contract push is going quite well for Jackson, whose +700 odds to win MVP at SI Sportsbook trails only Josh Allen (+300) and Patrick Mahomes (+450).
Perfect 10 Recap
SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest allows bettors to win up to $10,000 if they can correctly pick 10 games ATS. Bettors came close this week with the best entry predicting nine games correctly but couldn’t complete a 10-for-day.
Bettors found success correctly predicting the Ravens (85%), Eagles (79%) and Bengals (75%) to cover, but the Chiefs (85%), Bills (75%) and Chargers (70%) failed bettors by losing both SU and ATS. The Week 3 selections leaned toward the favorites, but those upsets prevented perfection.
Josh Delivers
While it came in a loss, Allen rewarded his backers against the Dolphins.
Allen topped his passing yards (283.5), passing touchdowns (1.5) and rushing yards (40.5) props in the 21-19 loss.
Allen’s showing why he’s the MVP favorite and why the Bills are still the heavy favorites (+400) to win the Super Bowl even after Sunday’s setback in Miami.
Jaguars Goodness
The Jaguars’ offense absolutely delivered for bettors Sunday in their stunning 38-10 beatdown of the Chargers. Here are the player props they cleared:
• Trevor Lawrence: passing touchdowns (1.5), passing yards (238.5)
• James Robinson: rushing yards (53.5), receiving yards (9.5), receptions (1.5)
• Travis Etienne: rushing yards (25.5), receiving yards (15.5), receptions (3.5)
• Zay Jones: receiving yards (33.5), receptions (3.5)
• Christian Kirk: receiving yards (59.5), receptions (5.5)
Back On Track
After back-to-back duds, Derrick Henry and Kyle Pitts finally got on track.
Henry cleared his rushing yards (77.5) and receiving yards (7.5) props against the Raiders while also scoring to cash his anytime touchdown prop at -138 odds.
Pitts, who had just four catches for 38 yards, totaled five catches for 87 yards to clear his props of 4.5 receptions and 52.5 yards.
While Pitts has still yet to score, this game marked improvement.
Fading Justin Fields
Betting against Justin Fields and the Bears’ passing attack is a strong bet.
Despite low props of 0.5 touchdowns, 173.5 passing yards and 214.5 passing plus rushing yards, Fields went 0-3. He threw for just 106 yards and zero touchdowns and totaled just 153 yards in the Bears’ 23-20 victory over the Texans.
Betting the under on 0.5 touchdowns rewarded bettors with +150 odds.
First, Last, Anytime
Here are notable first, last and anytime touchdown odds that cashed.
Bengals RB Samaje Perine: +2500 first touchdown
Jaguars WR Zay Jones: +1850 first touchdown
Raiders WR Mack Hollins: +1600 last touchdown
Vikings WR K.J. Osborn: +1450 last touchdown
Jaguars WR Marvin Jones Jr. +1450 last touchdown
Packers WR Romeo Doubs: +1450 first touchdown
Lions TE T.J. Hockenson: +1300 first touchdown
Bears RB Khalil Herbert: +1300 first touchdown, +1300 last touchdown
Falcons QB Marcus Mariota: +1300 first touchdown
Buccaneers WR Russell Gage: +1200 last touchdown
49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk: +1200 first touchdown
By The Skin Of Their Teeth
We had a pair of player props clear by just 0.5 yards in the Rams-Cardinals game.
James Conner rushed for 39 yards, just clearing his prop of 38.5 yards. Matthew Stafford also rushed for two yards, just topping his prop of 1.5 yards. You have to love when you bet on the rushing yards prop for a quarterback, and it cashes.
They Contain Kupp
Cooper Kupp had totaled at least 65 receiving yards in 21 of his last 23 games (including playoffs) dating to last season.
The only times he had not were against the Cardinals last year in Week 4 (5-64-0) and the playoffs (5-61-1). The Cardinals, for some odd reason, can limit Kupp.
Kupp had projections of 7.5 catches for 98.5 yards Sunday, but he did not come close to those numbers with just four catches for 44 yards.
The receiver did reward fantasy managers with a 20-yard rushing score.
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THE BAD
Where Are The Rushing Yards?
We’re going to cover three quarterbacks who failed to deliver in regards to their rushing yards props Sunday in winning efforts.
Jalen Hurts rushed for 147 yards on 28 carries over the first two games (78.5 rushing yards per game) and had a line of 54.5 yards Sunday. Hurts tallied a season-low nine carries for just 20 yards against the Commanders.
For our second entry, we shift to Joe Burrow.
We covered in last week’s column how betting on the over on Burrow’s rushing yards may be wise considering Cincinnati’s porous offensive line. Burrow averaged 36.5 rushing yards per game in the Bengals’ first two games, both losses.
Burrow’s rushing yards prop sat 11.5 yards against the Jets, and Burrow totaled zero yards on five carries in the Bengals’ win. Cincinnati yielded two sacks.
Last, we have Kyler Murray.
Part of the reason you pay Murray is his rushing abilities, yet the Cardinals had him rush just two times for eight yards in their home loss to the Rams. Murray did not come close to his rushing yards prop of 27.5 yards.
Top Receivers Don’t Deliver
SI Sportsbook offered a tasty boosted player prop parlay at +550 odds that Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs would each score. It seemed like a solid bet considering these three receivers are three of the best in the sport.
While Chase found the end zone against the Jets, Jefferson flopped (3-14) and Diggs (7-74) did not score, while Isaiah McKenzie and Devin Singletary did.
Mack Who?
Those who bet on Davante Adams and Darren Waller to have big games against the Titans had to be dismayed seeing Mack Hollins—yes, Mack Hollins—instead light up the box score, while Adams and Waller had modest days.
Adams, who at least scored, failed to clear his props of 7.5 catches for 86.5 yards, while Waller did not top 4.5 catches for 50.5 yards.
Hollins, meanwhile, posted an 8-158-1 line. Just like we expected.
Need Some Catches
Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey have been some of the best fantasy running backs because of their rushing and receiving abilities.
That hasn’t been the case this season.
Neither back cleared their receiving yards props Sunday in the Panthers’ 22-14 win over the Saints. Kamara caught two balls for 12 yards, short of his props of 2.5 catches for 22.5 yards, and McCaffrey hauled in two balls for seven yards, well short of his props of 4.5 receptions for 37.5 yards.
Kamara has five catches for 19 yards spanning two games, while McCaffrey has totaled only 10 receptions for 57 yards in three games.
So Close
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a fantasy superstar thus far but just missed his props Sunday against the Vikings. St. Brown had six catches for 73 yards, falling just beneath his props of 6.5 catches for 73.5 yards. Those are two tough beats.
Not Playing Like The No. 1 Pick
Jonathan Taylor rushed 21 times for 71 yards and failed to score in the Colts’ upset win over the Chiefs. Taylor fell short of his prop of 88.5 rushing yards, and the No. 1 pick in most fantasy drafts has now failed to clear his prop in two of three games.
THE UGLY
Betting On The Favorites
SI Sportsbook favorites went just 4-10 ATS on Sunday in an ugly showing.
Only the Bengals (-6.5), Eagles (-7.5), Ravens (-3.5) and Rams (-3.5) covered among the favorites and each of those four teams covered as road favorites.
Home Favorites Flop
The five home favorites at SI Sportsbook went 0-5 ATS with the Bears (-3.5), Vikings (-6.5), Chargers (-3.5), Seahawks (-1) and Buccaneers (-1.5) each failing to cover and the latter three teams each losing SU.
Oh, Detroit
The Lions provided the double burn to those who backed them on the moneyline and those who bet on the under in their 28-24 loss to the Vikings.
Detroit blew a 24-14 fourth-quarter lead in the final eight minutes, allowing two touchdowns. While they covered the 6.5-point spread, the Lions burned those who bet on them at +225 on the moneyline and those who bet on under 52 points.
Same old Lions.
Get A Stop!
Those who bet on the under for Raiders-Titans experienced a worse beat since the Titans allowed 10 points in the final four minutes to push the game over the projection of 45.5 points in their 24-22 win. Yes, the game went over by 0.5 points.
The Titans, who won their first game while dropping the Raiders to 0-3, allowed a field goal and a touchdown before preventing the two-point conversion.
No Home-Field Advantage
The home teams in the 4 p.m. window went 0-4, both SU and ATS, despite being favored in three of the games.
The Chargers lost to the Jaguars, the Cardinals fell to the Rams as 3.5-point underdogs, the Seahawks lost to the Falcons, and the Buccaneers fell to the Packers.
No Rushing Yards
Each of the five players listed at SI Sportsbook for the Packers-Buccaneers game failed to clear their rushing yards prop.
Leonard Fournette (35 yards), Aaron Jones (36 yards), A.J. Dillon (32 yards), Tom Brady (-1 yard) and Aaron Rodgers (-1 yard) each fell short of their marks.
The Milk Carton
Two receivers projected to have the most receiving yards and most catches in their respective games yesterday flopped in big ways.
Justin Jefferson produced the worst game of his career with just three catches for a career-low 13 yards, falling short of 7.5 catches for 98.5 yards.
DJ Moore, meanwhile, had one catch for two yards. He came nowhere near his projections of 4.5 catches for 57.5 yards.
We hope you at least overcame their duds in fantasy.
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