Week 4 NFL Odds and Best Bets: Picks for Perfect 10 Contest
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As the calendar flips to October, that means our kids will be receiving ‘free’ candy with Halloween later this month.
Who doesn’t love ‘free’ things?!
How about a ‘Free’ NFL contest where you can win $10,000?
SI Sportsbook is offering a ‘free’ sports betting contest every week of the NFL season! Do I have your attention yet?
If I do, you should asking “Where do I sign up and what do I need to do to win?”
Bettors can enter the free Perfect 10 contest at SI Sportsbook every week during the NFL season. Bettors make 10 selections against the spread (ATS) for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every bettor whom picks at least six games correctly will be awarded consolation prizes in the form of free bets.
The Week 4 contest finds a slate with seven of the 10 home teams listed as favorites. This is the exact of Week 3 when seven road teams were listed as favorites. Let’s take a look at some of the games and trends on tap for Sunday!
The Ravens are 5-0 ATS as home underdogs under Jim Harbaugh and face a banged up Bills defense at M&T Bank Stadium catching 3.5 points in the contest.
The Cowboys are 7-3 both straight-up (SU) and ATS against the Commanders in the last 10 matchups. Carson Wentz , who was sacked nine times by the Eagles in Week 3, will now face a Dallas defense which leads the league in sacks (13).
Jared Goff and the Lions, who are a perfect 3-0 ATS on the season, will put their 6-0 ATS home streak on the line against the Seahawks. Seattle is 5-11 ATS over its last 16 road contests but may be catching the Lions at the right time since they could be without both D'Andre Swift (shoulder) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle).
The Broncos are 1-8 ATS over their last nine games against the Raiders and will try to snap a four-game losing streak against a winless Las Vegas squad. Josh McDaniels, whose team is 0-3 both SU and ATS, is 11-20 (.355) as a head coach.
The Packers, who are 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS over their last 14 games at Lambeau Field, face a Patriots team without starting quarterback Mac Jones (ankle). In his place, New England will start Brian Hoyer under center. The veteran signal-caller has lost 11 consecutive starts dating back to 2016.
So, which games stand out as best bets? Our team here at Sports Illustrated is here to help. Let’s see who our team is backing as their best bets for the Week 4 contest.
Craig Ellenport: Bills -3.5
It’s easy to sell this game as a battle of elite quarterbacks that can go either way, but the Bills are a better team and they have a greater sense of urgency this week after losing to the Dolphins. And the difference will be Buffalo’s defense. After the Dolphins scored 42 against Baltimore two weeks ago, Buffalo held Miami to 21. Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense should score plenty, so Buffalo just needs to slow down Lamar Jackson a little to come away with a comfortable win.
Matt Ehalt: Cowboys -2.5
The Cowboys laying just 2.5 points against the Commanders seems like free money. Cooper Rush has proven he can competently handle the offense and has already beaten the Bengals and Giants. The Commanders are still a mess and already lost on the road at the Lions. Dallas is riding high off back-to-back wins and should be able to beat Washington by at least a field goal.
Shawn Childs: Lions -6.5
Typically laying points by a team that allows 31 points a game is a losing play. When adding that Detroit only has four wins over 20 matchups under Dan Campbell, bettors should run to the window and take Seattle plus the points on Sunday. Last year, Detroit started to feature Amon-Ra St. Brown in its offense in Week 13. They went 4-1 straight at home since that point while scoring 167 points (33.4 per game) with wins over the Vikings, Cardinals, Packers and Commanders. The Seahawks’ defense couldn’t get offenses off the field in 2021, and they are trending in a similar direction this season (allowing 4.9 yards per rush and 8.9 yards per pass attempt). Detroit will be without D’Andre Swift, and their defense has a lot to prove late in games. In Week 17 last year, Russell Wilson beat the Lions, 51-29, in his final home start for Seattle. Geno Smith will make a mistake or two in this matchup, helping Detroit even its record at 2-2 in this revenge matchup.
Matt De Lima: Seahawks +6.5
The Lions have leaned hard on the run and it’s worked to their benefit with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. But I believe we see a regression towards the mean as Detroit is banged up between Swift, two interior linemen, Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson. They could still all play but, at the very least, it’s presumptive to assume Jared Goff is suddnely a steady and reliable quarterback that puts 30-plus on the scoreboard weekly. Seahawks do enough to lose yet cover.
Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
Kyle Wood: Cowboys -2.5
The Cowboys lead the NFL in sacks and Carson Wentz is the most-sacked quarterback in the league. It’s the perfect storm for Dallas’ defensive line to feast on the Commanders’ spotty protection of Wentz and force a turnover or two. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys ran with impunity last week against the Giants and CeeDee Lamb finally came alive. Cooper Rush is still undefeated as a starter and Washington, which has dropped two in a row, is not ending that streak in Dallas. I feel plenty comfortable with this line less than a field goal.
Jennifer Piacenti: Lions -6.5
I am officially buying into the hype. The Lions are 3-0 ATS this year and face a Seahawks team averaging 15.7 points per game. Even though the Lions defense’ is generous, I don’t see Geno Smith taking full advantage. Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams should be a more than capable replacement for D’Andre Swift versus a porous Seattle run defense, and Amon-Ra St. Brown remains a top wideout that will be prominently featured. Throw in Josh Reynolds, T.J. Hockenson, and D.J. Chark, and suddenly Jared Goff looks like the quarterback with better weapons (apologies to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett). The Lions average 31.7 points per game—second-most in the NFL—and they cover again Sunday.
Connor Lamb: Seahawks +6.5
Geno Smith looked more comfortable putting the ball in the hands of Seattle’s best offensive playmakers in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf last week against the Falcons, targeting the duo 23 times for 14 catches and 1 touchdown. This improved rapport should help open up the rushing lanes for Pete Carroll’s preferred run-heavy game script against a Lions team that is allowing 142.3 rushing yards per contest. Detroit hasn’t been a favorite since Week 11 of 2020 when they lost 20-0 to the Panthers, and although they are 3-0 ATS this year, Vegas has a mysterious way of balancing advantageous trends throughout a season.
Frankie Taddeo: Packers -9.5
The Patriots were not a great team before Mac Jones suffered his ankle injury. Now they will start Brian Hoyer, who is 0-11 in his last 11 starts dating back to 2016, against one of the league’s best defenses. New England is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games and heads to Green Bay to face a Packers squad that has quietly won 14 consecutive home games. The Packers are also a lucrative 8-2 ATS over their last 10 at Lambeau, and will will dominate from start to finish in Week 4.
Michael Fabiano: Steelers -3.5
I’m not a huge fan of Mitch Trubisky, but I’ll take the Steelers as a home favorite against the Jets and Zach Wilson. The Men in Green are 3-6 ATS in their last nine road games and have lost by double digits in two of their first three games in 2022, while Pittsburgh is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games dating back to last season.
Bill Enright: Cowboys -2.5
Was shocked to see Dallas only giving Washington 2.5 points. The Cowboys are a far superior team, even with Cooper Rush under center, who, as it turns out, is pretty darn good at helping his team defeat its NFC East rivals. Hammer this number and take the Cowboys laying less than a field goal.
Doug Vazquez: Browns -2.5
Best Bets and the Browns are rarely used in the same sentence, but here we are. Jacoby Brissett has proven to be a serviceable quarterback as he has taken the helm under center. Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb have been terrorizing run defenses, and Amari Cooper is looking poised to break out after a slow start. While the Falcons have not looked terrible and have started to show some depth at offense with rookie wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, I think the Browns’ defense will be able to contain them and get to 3-1.
Conor Orr: Patriots +9.5
Will the Patriots win? No. Will they keep it closer than expected because Bill Belichick is a great defensive mind and Aaron Rodgers is still figuring out his new personnel set? Yes. You don’t have to be able to read an MRI to know that spotting the Patriots 9.5 points in a big prime-time game is usually a bad idea.
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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