NFL Week 4 Betting Recap: Bad Beats and Big Payouts
The points finally came.
The under dominated the first three weeks of the NFL season, particularly with the prime-time matchups. Betting on the over at SI Sportsbook had resulted in an 18-29-1 record, with the best mark being Week 3’s 7-8-1 mark.
Sunday featured the over going 8-6 in games and 8-7 on the week, entering Monday’s Rams-49ers game with an over/under of 42.5.
That’s good news for those who enjoy high-scoring games and not watching punt fests like last Sunday’s 49ers-Broncos snoozefest.
Week 4 also featured three tight ends scoring that paid out with at least 5-1 odds and one that rewarded bettors with 29-2 odds! And the odds are you don’t have any of them on your fantasy teams unless you’re in a 64-team league.
Here’s the good, the bad and the ugly from Week 4 betting.
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© Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK
THE GOOD
The First Winner
SI Sportsbook’s free Perfect 10 contest provides bettors with a shot at winning up to $10,000 if they can guess 10 games right against the spread (ATS).
Week 4 provided its first winner of the contest among 851 participants.
Bettors found their most success betting on the Eagles to cover a 6.5-point spread against the Jaguars (78%) and the Cowboys to lay 2.5 points to the Commanders (78%). However, the Packers (65%), Browns (62%) and Steelers (60%) failing to cover as favorites led to the most wrong selections.
Most of the favorites in the 10-game slate covered this week, leading to a solid week for most participants. Be sure to join the Week 5 contest!
Finally, Fireworks!
We finally had our first high-scoring Sunday Night Football game in the Chiefs’ 41-31 win at the Buccaneers. It marked the first Sunday night game to top its over/under after the first three Sunday games had totaled 22, 37 and 21 points. Those three games combined for just eight more points than this Sunday’s game.
Lions-Seahawks Goodness
The Seahawks’ 48-45 win over the Lions provided betting and fantasy goodness. These two teams almost doubled their game projection of 48 points.
Both Geno Smith and Jared Goff topped their passing yards and passing touchdowns prop, and the top four receivers and backs cleared their props.
Jamaal Williams, Craig Reynolds, Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker III each cleared their rushing yards prop, with Williams and Penny each scoring twice.
DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, T.J. Hockenson and Josh Reynolds all topped their receiving yards and receptions props. Hockenson had an all-time fantasy game by a tight end, totaling eight catches for 179 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Ekeler’s Season Starts
Austin Ekeler has officially joined the 2022 season.
Ekeler, likely the third running back drafted and potentially even the No. 3 pick, had disappointed fantasy managers and bettors through three games. On Sunday, Ekeler finally produced a performance his backers had been waiting for.
The running back topped his rushing yards prop (56.5), receiving yards prop (40.5) and scored three times, including the final touchdown. Ekeler cashed his anytime touchdown prop bets at -138 odds and the last touchdown bet at +520 odds.
The Road Jets
Apparently, the most dangerous lead in sports is a double-digit home advantage in the fourth quarter against the Jets.
For the second time in four weeks and in as many road games, the Jets rallied in the fourth quarter to stun a favored AFC North foe. New York scored two touchdowns in the last minutes to down the Steelers, 24-20, as three-point and +140 underdogs. The Jets previously rallied in Week 2 to stun the Browns.
The Jets are home this week against the Dolphins, though, so you’ll have to wait until Week 6 at the Packers to bet on another late Jets rally.
Getting Chiggy With It
If you bet on Chigoziem Okonkwo to score a touchdown Sunday, please give your sports almanac back to Biff. Thanks.
Anyway, this Titans’ tight end that you’ve probably never heard of scored any anytime touchdown at +1450 odds. He also paced the Titans with a 3-38-1 line.
Sadly, he’s now been about as productive this season as Kyle Pitts.
All Runs, No Passes
Betting on the running backs and the dual-threat (we use the term ‘threat’ loosely here) quarterbacks in the Giants’ 20-12 win over the Bears rewarded bettors. The teams combined for 76 rushing attempts (44 by the Giants) with just 38 passes.
Saquon Barkley (80.5), Daniel Jones (31.5), Khalil Herbert (74.5) and Justin Fields (38.5) each cleared their rushing yards prop.
Neither Jones or Fields threw a touchdown pass, while Jones went under his passing yards projection. Fields did top his projection with 174 passing yards and the second-year quarterback also cleared his rushing plus passing yards prop.
Run, Run, Run
Betting on the rushing yards props for Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in the Bills-Ravens matchup rewarded bettors as both quarterbacks cleared their props.
Allen topped 39.5 yards by rushing for 70 yards and one touchdown, while Jackson cleared 55.5 rushing yards by totaling 73 yards on 11 carries.
If you paired those bets with betting on the under for the MVP candidates’ passing props, then you fared even better as the under cashed for both quarterbacks’ touchdown passes and passing yards props.
No Conversion
Those who bet on under 43.5 points in the Cardinals’ 26-16 win at the Panthers had to sweat out what seemed like an easy win.
The teams entered the fourth quarter in a 10-all tie, but the teams combined for only 22 points in the final quarter, thanks to a pair of failed two-point conversions.
The Cardinals first attempted to go up 18 after taking a 26-10 lead but failed, and the Panthers could not convert after slicing the lead to 26-16.
Either of those conversions would have pushed the game over 43.5 points.
First, Last, Anytime
Here are some notable first, last and anytime touchdown bets that cashed.
Jaguars WR Jamal Agnew last, anytime touchdown: +2800; +500
Jets QB Zach Wilson first, anytime touchdown: +2500; +530
Seahawks TE Will Dissly first touchdown: +2500
Colts TE Mo Allie-Cox last touchdown: +2000
Packers WR Christian Watson first touchdown: +2000
Commanders WR Jahan Dotson first touchdown: +1450
Titans TE Chig Okonkwo anytime touchdown: +1450
Titans WR Robert Woods first touchdown: +1300
Vikings RB Alexander Mattison first touchdown: +1200
Chiefs TE Jody Fortson anytime touchdown: +950
Chiefs TE Noah Gray anytime touchdown: +600
Seahawks QB Geno Smith anytime touchdown: +500
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
THE BAD
Scoring Stops
Those who bet on over 43 points the over in Titans-Colts felt good when the teams combined for 41 points with 7:31 remaining in the third quarter.
Surely, the teams would score again.
Wrong.
Somehow, the AFC South rivals did not score in the final 22:31. Not even a measly field goal that would have pushed the game over its total. Colts kicker Chase McLaughlin missed a 51-yard attempt with less than three minutes to go that stings all the more because Matt Ryan took an eight-yard sack on the previous play.
The final seven possessions: punt, punt, punt, fumble, punt, field goal miss, end game. Not exactly an offensive masterpiece.
Jags Gonna Jags
The Jaguars burned those who bet on them to cover a 6.5-point spread and made it all the worse by taking a 14-point lead into the second quarter in the 29-21 loss at the Eagles. Jacksonville just needed not to be outscored by 21 points the rest of the way to cover, but the Jaguars allowed a 29-7 run to end the game.
Jacksonville’s inability to protect the football ultimately burned their bettors as the Jaguars kept giving the ball back to the Eagles. The Jaguars’ moneyline bettors watched as their +225 bets went up in flames in the final three quarters.
Jalen’s Down Day
Jalen Hurts has been a fantasy superstar to start the year, but he had a rough day for props betting Sunday, although he at least scored a touchdown.
Hurts failed to clear his rushing yards (48.5), passing touchdowns (1.5), passing yards (238.5) and passing plus rushing yards (292.5) props.
The quarterback has now gone under his projected rushing yards total in back-to-back games after totaling just 38 yards on 16 carries.
No Stops
Those brave enough to bet on the Patriots on the moneyline at +350 felt the burn as the Patriots could have escaped Lambeau Field with a win.
New England led by seven in the fourth quarter but allowed a game-tying touchdown drive and then could not score in overtime after getting the ball near midfield when all they needed was a field goal.
The Patriots had their chances but just didn’t have that little extra magic.
No Rushing Yards
Betting on the main backs in the Commanders-Cowboys game backfired.
Ezekiel Elliott (56.5), Tony Pollard (42.5) and Antonio Gibson (53.5) each failed to clear their rushing yards props. Both Gibson and Elliott rushed for 49 yards to fall just short, while Pollard had a puzzling eight-carry, six-yard performance.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
THE UGLY
Not Taking The Touchdown
While the Bills-Ravens game ended in a push, those who backed the Bills to cover are not pleased with how the game ended. Instead of going for a touchdown, the Bills settled for a walk-off field goal in their 23-20 win.
Had they scored, and the Ravens were willing to let Buffalo score, the Bills would have covered. Instead, you just got a push.
The Ravens’ Big Leads
The Ravens really like to pour salt in the wound for their moneyline bettors.
Baltimore blew its second double-digit home lead Sunday against the Bills, this time squandering a 17-point edge in the defeat. The Ravens previously blew a 21-point lead at home against the Dolphins in a stunning 42-38 defeat.
The Ravens burned those who bet them at +140 odds to win straight-up.
Jets-Steelers Under
Those who bet on under 41 points in the Jets-Steelers game took a tough loss and we especially feel sorry if you bet the Steelers on the moneyline (-167).
The teams combined for just 23 points through three quarters, making 41 points seem like a long shot. But the Steelers allowed two touchdowns in the final eight minutes, including the go-ahead score with just 18 seconds left in their 24-20 loss.
The Steel Curtain, these Steelers are not.
What’s Going On With Jonathan Taylor?
Jonathan Taylor disappointed for the third time in four games, rushing for just 42 yards on 20 carries while losing a fumble in the Colts’ 24-17 loss.
Taylor has now failed to clear his rushing yards prop in each of the last three games while failing to score. Not an ideal start for most drafts’ No. 1 pick.
The star back also did not clear his receiving yards prop of 13.5 yards, hauling in just one ball for one yard. Meanwhile, opposing running back Derrick Henry easily cleared his prop of 72.5 rushing yards on his way to 114 yards and a touchdown and topped 13.5 receiving yards in his three-catch day.
The Milk Carton
This section is where we list some of the more notable players who disappointed Sunday and did not come close to their expected production.
Steelers WR Diontae Johnson (5.5 rec, 66.5 rec yards): 2-11-0
Ravens TE Mark Andrews (5.5 rec. 65.5 rec yards): 2-15-0
Browns WR Amari Cooper (4.5 rec, 58.5 rec yards): 1-9-0
Falcons WR Drake London (4.5 rec, 57.5 rec yards): 2-17-0
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts (4.5 rec, 55.5 rec yards): 1-25-0
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (3.5 rec, 55.5 rec yards): 2-15-0
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (4.5 rec, 53.5 rec yards): 3-17-0
Bills WR Gabe Davis (3.5 rec. 48.5 rec yards): 1-13-0
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (3.5 rec, 46.5 rec yards): 3-17-0
Steelers WR Chase Claypool (3.5 rec, 37.5 rec yards): 0-0-0
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• Week 4 MMQB Awards
