College Football Odds, Bets: Pittsburgh-North Carolina, USC-Arizona, Oklahoma State-Kansas State, Cincinnati-South Florida

Best bets and analysis for Saturday’s Pittsburgh-UNC, USC-Arizona, Oklahoma State-Kansas State and Cincinnati-USF games.

Author:
Pat Forde
Publish date:
Oct 28, 2022

In this story:

UCF Knights

Cincinnati Bearcats

Kansas State Wildcats

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Pittsburgh Panthers

North Carolina Tar Heels

USC Trojans

Arizona Wildcats

In terms of marquee matchups, it’s not a great slate of games this week in college football. But these are often the weeks when drama strikes — and when wagering opportunity presents itself. This week and every week for the remainder of the season, I’ll present Forde’s Four — my picks against the spread in a quartet of games that offer some potential for financial reward.

Top play: Pittsburgh vs. No. 21 North Carolina

Date: Oct. 29, 2022 | 8 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Pitt (+125) | UNC (-151)
Spread: Pitt +3 (-110) | UNC -3 (-110)
Total: 65.5 - Over (-118) | Under (-110)

This is a perplexing line. Not only does North Carolina (6-1) appear to be better on paper, the intangibles surrounding the game are in its favor as well. The Tar Heel are at home; they’re coming off an open date that has allowed a handful of injured players to return to the lineup; and Pittsburgh is playing a second successive road game after losing by two touchdowns at Louisville.

Quarterback Drake Maye is having a brilliant freshman season, ranking third nationally in pass efficiency and having thrown for more than 300 yards in four straight games. Meanwhile, Pitt quarterback Kedon Slovis, a high-profile transfer from USC, has struggled. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the past two games and has only passed for more than 200 yards in a game twice this season.

This should add up to a North Carolina win that exceeds the field-goal spread.

BET: North Carolina -3 (-110)

No. 10 USC vs. Arizona

Date: Oct. 29, 2022 | 7 p.m. ET
Moneyline: USC (-901) | ARZ (+500)
Spread: USC -15 (-118) | ARZ +15 (-110)
Total: 76.5 - Over (-110) | Under (-118)

USC also is coming off an open date and spoiling to bounce back for its late-minute loss at Utah. Encountering the worst defense in the Pac-12 in yards allowed per play should help. Arizona has surrendered 49 points in three out of four league games — California, Oregon and Washington. The fourth was against Colorado, which barely counts as a Power 5 game.

Look for the USC offense to strike early and often and in a variety of ways. Quarterback Caleb Williams could have a big game that reasserts him as a Heisman Trophy candidate.

BET: USC -15 (-118)

No. 9 Oklahoma State vs. No. 22 Kansas State

Date: Oct. 29, 2022 | 3:30 p.m. ET
Moneyline: OKST (+100) | KSST(-125)
Spread: OKST +1.5 (-110) | KSST -1.5 (-110)
Total: 56 - Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Yes, Oklahoma State is banged up coming out of its win over Texas. But as long as quarterback Spencer Sanders is good to go, the Cowboys should be able to move and score on a K-State defense that has been creased for more than 450 yards in three out of four Big 12 games. The Wildcats just might not have enough speed to keep up with a Mike Gundy offense that can operate effectively in space.

Kansas State, meanwhile, has a lot of uncertainty at quarterback. Starter Adrian Martinez was injury last week in the loss to TCU, and then effective backup Will Howard got hurt later in the game. The Wildcats had to turn to third-stringer Jake Rubley for a period of time as that game got away. Coach Chris Klieman isn’t tipping his hand on who will start against Oklahoma State, but it’s possible that he will have to turn to Howard, who possesses less dual-threat capability than Martinez.

BET: Oklahoma State +1.5 (-110)

No. 20 Cincinnati vs. Central Florida

Date: Oct. 29, 2022 | 3:30 p.m. ET
Moneyline: CIN (+100) | UCF (-125)
Spread: CIN +1.5 (-110) | CIN -1.5 (-118)
Total: 55.5 - Over (-118) | Under (-110)

This is a rare gift — Cincinnati hasn’t been an underdog in an American Athletic Conference game since early in the 2020 season. Rest assured, coach Luke Fickell will use the Vegas line as motivation for his team — which has won 19 straight league games.

Regardless, the Bearcats must clean up some of the sloppiness of recent weeks, particularly in terms of penalties. (They had 14 for 128 yards last week in a win at SMU.) UCF is explosive but prone to some real dud performances in two seasons under Gus Malzahn, most recently losing by 21 to East Carolina last week. They’ll get the Bounce House rocking for this game, but look for Cincinnati to rise to the challenge.