Expert Picks for Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl LVII Bets, Player Props and Novelty Props
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Super Bowl LVII features two teams that are near mirror images of each other.
Both the Chiefs and Eagles are No. 1 seeds with identical 16-3 records thanks to boasting quarterbacks who are MVP contenders.
The near impossible task of separating the two powerful squads has resulted in a virtual coin-flip point spread. The Eagles, who briefly opened as 1.5-point underdogs, have held steady as 1.5-point favorites, while the game total has bounced around before settling at 50.5.
Jalen Hurts, who is 18-1 in his last 19 starts, is favored to beat a player likely headed for league MVP honors for the second time. That decision by oddsmakers results in Patrick Mahomes being listed as a playoff underdog for the first time.
A deeper dive reveals Mahomes has been assigned the role of underdog just nine times in 93 career starts including the postseason and has burned sportsbooks with an eye-popping 7-1-1 against the spread (ATS) mark.
Can the Eagles’ top-ranked pass defense slow down the NFL’s best player who has thrown for the most passing yards (5,771) and touchdowns (45) this season?
On the flip side, can a statistically average Chief’s defense contain a dangerous dual-threat signal-caller who has scored the most rushing touchdowns (15) in a season by a quarterback in NFL history?
Our team here at Sports Illustrated Betting is here to provide their game pick for Super Bowl LVII, top player proposition wager and their favorite Novelty Prop.
Let’s check out the predictions!
Bet on Super Bowl LVII at SI Sportsbook
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Wood
Playoff Record: 6-2 (+5.05 Units)
BEST BET: Eagles -1.5 (-110)
The lasting image of the Chiefs’ loss in the Super Bowl two years ago is Patrick Mahomes running for his life. The best front to replicate what the Buccaneers did against the game’s best quarterback, and the line tasked with protecting him, is Philadelphia’s. The Eagles fell just shy of setting the NFL record for most sacks in a season and have the best passing defense in the league for when the pass rush doesn’t get home. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City’s defense is ill-equipped to stop the run, which Philly can lean on to mount long drives and keep the likely MVP off the field.
Have the Eagles had an easy path to the Big Game? Yes, but that’s also the benefit of earning the No. 1 seed. Philadelphia is 16–1 with Jalen Hurts under center this year. Come Sunday night, that record will read 17–1.
PROP BET: No Player to Have 100+ receiving yards (+290)
Three of the top 10 leading receivers in the regular season played for either Kansas City (Travis Kelce) or Philadelphia (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith). Of that trio, none have broken 100 yards in the playoffs so far. The only player heading into the Super Bowl for either team who has done so is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who went for a season-high 116 in the AFC championship. (Kelce came just short in the divisional round with 98 yards on 14 catches). Neither defense has allowed 100 yards to an opposing receiver yet and the closest any player got was Zay Jones and Tee Higgins, who each had 83 on the Chiefs. The Eagles will be hard-pressed to deny Kelce triple digits, but if they do it seems unlikely that any of their pass catchers hit that mark considering none have so far across two combined games.
NOVELTY PROP BET: Either Team to Convert a Fourth-Down Attempt in Their Own Territory (+120)
Both teams have been perfect so far this postseason on fourth-down attempts: The Chiefs are 1-for-1 and the Eagles are 3-for-3. Philadelphia was both one of the most aggressive and successful teams in the regular season when going for it on fourth down with 22 conversions on 32 attempts. Kansas City was much more conservative in that regard, though still plenty efficient, with nine conversions on 12 tries. Of those four combined tries in the playoffs between the two teams, just one came in the team’s own territory. The Eagles ran Hurts on 4th-and-1 early in the second quarter on their own 34 and he moved the chains. It’s easy to see Hurts getting his number called on a similar play just shy of midfield for Philadelphia or Andy Reid calling on Mahomes in that same situation. Both defenses also allow opponents to convert on fourth down more than 50% of the time.
Matt Ehalt
Playoff Record: 4-3-1 (+3.63 Units)
BEST BET: Chiefs Moneyline (+105)
The Eagles are the better team. They have matchups they should exploit. But something tells me Patrick Mahomes is ready to show the world why he’s the best quarterback on the planet. As the poet Ric Flair once said: “To be the man, you got to beat the man.” Well, Mahomes is the man. Let’s also not discount the Eagles have maybe had the easiest path to a Super Bowl ever. The Chiefs are more battle-tested. Bet on Mahomes at better odds on the moneyline than getting 1.5 points.
PROP BET: Jerick McKinnon Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
The Chiefs have one of the best screen offenses under Andy Reid and they will need it against the Eagles’ pass rush. This doesn’t seem like a game where the Chiefs will try to run that much. Instead, Jerick McKinnon should benefit from plenty of screens and checkdowns when the Eagles’ pass rush gets home. I like McKinnon’s chances to take three or four passes for at least 21 yards.
NOVELTY PROP BET: First Rihanna Song: Umbrella (+600)
You have to start the halftime show with a banger. Yes, I know that “Don’t Stop the Music” has better odds. But let’s be real. Umbrella is a song everyone knows the words to and loves. Because when the sun shines, we shine together…
Craig Ellenport
Playoff Record: 4-4 (+0.05 Unit)
BEST BET: Under 50.5 (-110)
All four of the games played by these two teams so far in the postseason have been comfortably under this total. The Chiefs’ defense held a pair of dangerous offenses (Jaguars, Bengals) to 20 points apiece. The Eagles had a much easier path against the Giants and the quarterback-needy 49ers, holding both teams to seven points. Everyone’s excited to see Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts go toe-to-toe, but this will not be a shootout.
PROP BET: Skyy Moore Anytime Touchdown (+520)
In his first 17 career games, the rookie receiver was targeted an average of two times per game. Then, with the Chiefs' thin at receiver in the AFC title game, Moore was targeted seven times. The Chiefs are still somewhat limited at receiver heading into the Super Bowl, so what better stage for Moore to get his first career NFL touchdown?
NOVELTY PROP BET: Jeffrey Lurie First Owner Shown on TV (+275)
I’ve seen this prop as a choice between Lurie, Chiefs owner Clark Hunt and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. Lurie has a Hollywood background so there’s a good chance he’ll have a recognizable celebrity or two in his box, which will draw the TV cameras.
Frankie Taddeo
Playoff Record: 4-4 (+0.48 Unit)
BEST BET: Chiefs Moneyline (+105)
Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 (76.9%) in playoff games and a stellar 7-1-1 against the spread (ATS) (87.5%) when disrespected by oddsmakers as an underdog. This is a battle of the league’s best team (statistically) versus the league’s best player (MVP). Mahomes leads a No. 1 seed into Super Bowl LVII on a 12-1 straight-up run since the start of October. Plus-money on Money Mahomes? Sign me up.
PROP BET: Patrick Mahomes Over 38.5 Passing Attempts (-125)
This market immediately grabbed the attention of respected money in Vegas. Mahomes has surpassed 38.5 passing attempts in just nine of 19 games this season (47.4%), while only beating this projection in six of 13 playoff games (46%). However, let’s focus on his previous two Super Bowl appearances. Andy Reid has dialed up game plans focusing heavily on Mahomes’ passing ability, attempting 42 passes in Super Bowl LIV followed by 49 in Super Bowl LV. Mahomes attempted 43 passes in the AFC championship against Cincinnati, opting to remain in the pocket due to his ankle. The outcome of this game likely rests upon Mahomes’ right arm, resulting in a market bettors need to invest in.
NOVELTY PROP BET: Last Rihanna Song: Diamonds (+300)
Sources have informed me that Diamonds will be the last song of Rhianna’s halftime performance. “Shine Bright” with what many call “A Girl’s Best Friend” and pad your bankroll with this “Lock” winner. As I shared on my Twitter page several days ago, “Find it. Bet It. Cash It.”
Michael Chow-USA TODAY Sports
Bill Enright
Playoff Record: 4-4 (-0.35 Unit)
BEST BET: Eagles -1.5 (-110)
Both teams have great offenses but we all know defense wins championships and the Eagles have the better defense. They led the NFL in sacks and successfully get after the quarterback with just four defenders, which means they won’t be as vulnerable in the secondary against Patrick Mahomes who is surgical when blitzed. It’s the common tale of an unstoppable force against an immovable object with the Chiefs’ offense averaged 6.3 yards per play (No. 1 in the NFL) against the Eagles’ defense which allows just 4.7 Y.P.P (No. 1 in the NFL). I’m flying with Philly and have no problem laying the 1.5 points.
PROP BET: Jalen Hurts Rushing Touchdown (+110)
The Eagles’ quarterback led all signal-callers with 13 rushing touchdowns in just 15 regular season games. He’s ran in for a score in each of their two playoff victories and will make it three in a row against a Chiefs defense that allowed the eighth-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in 2022.
NOVELTY PROP BET: Coin Toss Heads (+100)
Nothing like starting the betting action before the first kickoff. A 50-50 shot at even-money and you’ll start the game on a win before the first play, now that’s the way to kick off the Super Bowl!!!
Matt De Lima
Playoff Record: 3-4 (-0.90 Unit)
BEST BET: Eagles -1.5 (-110)
Ahead of Week 3, I wrote that I felt the Eagles were the probably best team in the NFC, I couldn’t be as loyal to that call as I wanted to cause my 49ers were having one heckuva season. Now that the Eagles dismantled my team, I’m convinced they’re going to lay down one of those lopsided wins from the mid 80s to 90s-era style where the NFC rattled off 13 consecutive Super Bowl wins over the AFC.
PROP BET: C.J. Gardner-Johnson Under 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-105)
As the resident IDP guy, this one seems fun and I’ll take the light risk because it’s plus money. C.J. Gardner-Johnson had a great year, one of the top IDPs and defensive backs this year. Yet he only eclipsed this total five times out of 14 games (including postseason) and he missed a few due to injury.
NOVELTY PROP BET: Gatorade Color: Blue (+400)
Three of the last four Gatorade showers were blue. But, the one exception was 2020 when the Chiefs won and the Gatorade was orange. I think this is entirely random and I love the anticipation before it gets dumped on the coach. Stupid, fun and total luck—that’s how I like my novelty bets.
Michael Fabiano
Playoff Record: 4-4 (-1.01 Units)
BEST BET: Eagles -1.5 (-110)
I love trends, and this game could be part of one that seems quite odd. No Super Bowl quarterback who led the NFL in passing yards in that game season won the big game. Not Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner or Dan Marino. None. In all, such quarterbacks are 0-6. Guess who won the passing yardage crown in the regular season? That’s right, Patrick Mahomes. Trust me, I’m not rooting for the Eagles as a Cowboys fan, but I’m going to jump on this interesting trend.
PROP BET: Patrick Mahomes Under 294.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Mahomes might be closer to 100% heading into the Super Bowl, but that high ankle sprain could still hinder him. He’s failed to throw for 295 or more yards in eight of his 19 total games, but four of them have come since Week 13. What’s more, he’s had fewer than 295 yards in two of his last three games. Also keep in mind that the Eagles have allowed just one quarterback (Dak Prescott) to throw for more than 250 yards between their 19 regular-season and postseason contests.
NOVELTY PROP BET: First TD Scorer Jersey Under 11.5 (-130)
This is a fun prop, and I’m going with players with numbers under 12 like Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Yes, Mahomes, Travis Kelce of Dallas Goedert could crush this prop, but I like the odds of one of the Eagles’ three best offensive players getting into the end zone first in the Super Bowl.
Jennifer Piacenti
Playoff Record: 3-4-1 (-1.15 Units)
BEST BET: Under 50.5 (-110)
I know we all want a shootout,and these teams are certainly capable of that, but there’s a reason why you’ve heard “defense wins championships” over and over again. The Eagles have had one of the toughest defensive units in the league this year. During the regular season they led the league in quarterback pressures (25.6%) and were tied for fourth in both takeaways and interceptions, and they will be facing a slightly banged-up Mahomes. On the other side, this Chiefs’ defense should not be discounted either. They were able to hold the Bengals to only 20 points, and I can see them limiting Philadelphia too.
PROP BET Kenneth Gainwell Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-133)
I have a ton of prop bets I like, but I have already made a video about Dallas Goedert and Isaiah Pacheco, so let’s go with Gainwell here! Gainwell has averaged more than five yards per carry in 19 games played this season, and he’s logged double-digit carries in each of the two postseason games, while also leading the Eagles in rushing yards. Eagles runners averaged a combined 147.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season (fifth) while the Chiefs allowed 107 per game, and with the bar this low, I am smashing the over.
NOVELTY PROP BET: First TD Scorer Jersey Over 11.5 (+110)
That gives me Kelce, Goedert, Sanders and Mahomes at plus-money. I’ll take it!
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