NBA Picks: Heat-Bucks Predictions for Spread, Over/Under and Player Props
The Heat are in a position to take the season series against the Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo doubtful for Friday’s matchup at Fiserv Forum.
Miamiholds a 2–1 edge and the one win for Milwaukee came a few weeks ago with Antetokounmpo active—he did not play in either game of the back-to-back in mid-January.
If the playoffs began today, the Heat and Bucks would be matched up against one another with the former currently in seventh place (though they would have to go through the play-in tournament) and the latter in second. These teams faced off in the postseason twice in the last three years and split those two meetings.
In addition to Antetokounmpo (wrist), the injury report for Milwaukee includes Pat Connaughton (calf), who is also doubtful, and Wesley Matthews (calf), who is out. As for Miami, Kyle Lowry (knee) and Nikola Jovic (back) are both out and Tyler Herro (knee) is probable.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds
Spread: Heat +1.5 (-110) | Bucks -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: MIA (+100) | MIL (-118)
Total: 218.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Bet on the Heat and Bucks at SI Sportsbook
Heat and Bucks Best Bet: Heat +1.5 (-110)
The two games Miami and Milwaukee played in January with Antetokounmpo should be informative for this matchup. The Bucks teed off from deep on the Heat, one of the worst three-point defenses in the league. Despite hitting 19 and 22 threes, respectively, they didn’t score more than 102 points. Milwaukee shot roughly 40% from the field, didn’t attempt many free throws and got crushed on the glass.
Gabe Vincent led Miami in scoring with 27 and 28 points in the team’s two wins in January and Bam Adebayo had some success with a pair of 20-point double-doubles as well. Star Jimmy Butler had 33 points combined in the two wins and then scored 32 in the loss a few weeks back on the road.
It’s important to remember the Bucks, who are 24–5 at home, carry a 12-game winning streak into this matchup and the Heat are no juggernaut on the road, with a 13–17 record. However, Milwaukee is 2–4 without Antetokounmpo this season against playoff or play-in teams. Continue to monitor the injury report in the leadup to tipoff, but Miami should have the upper hand, even on the road, if the MVP candidate is ruled out.
Heat/Bucks Over/Under Bet: Under 218.5 (-110)
Heat games hit the under at one of the highest rates in the NBA and Bucks games, which do so more than half the time, aren’t that far behind. Both teams rank in the top five in defensive rating and Milwaukee is 11th in pace while Miami is 28th. The first two meetings between these teams—both of which were played without Antetokounmpo—went under despite the totals being set well below this over/under.
The total in the first game was set at 211.5 and the teams combined for 210 points and for the second game it was 212.5 and just 206 points were scored. The Bucks and Heat totaled 238 points in the last meeting, clearing the point total of 224, though Antetokounmpo finished with a 35-point triple-double.
The over hits at a high rate at home for Milwaukee, but without Antetokounmpo’s contributions on offense, this should be a slugfest.
Make Your Over/Under Bet on SI Sportsbook
Prop Bet: Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 Rebounds (-125)
Adebayo has cleared this mark in all three games against the Bucks so far this season as he corralled 11, 12 and 13 rebounds, respectively. And Milwaukee will be without Antetokounmpo, the league’s second-leading rebounder, and its biggest presence inside.
Outside of this matchup, he’s hit the over three times over his last six games overall, including a 17-rebound outing against the Magic. Adebayo will still have to contend with Bobby Portis down low, but there should be enough boards for him to hit the over on 10.5 rebounds once again.
Heat Betting Trends
Straight-Up Record: 32–27
Against The Spread Record: 21–35–3
Over/Under Record: 27–32
Points Per Game (Rank): 108.3 (30)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 108.3 (2)
Bucks Betting Trends
Straight-Up Record: 41–17
Against The Spread Record: 32–23–3
Over/Under Record: 28–30
Points Per Game (Rank): 114.8 (13)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 111.6 (6)
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council for Problem Gambling 1-800-522-4700.
