MLB Best Bet: Why We Like the Over in Tonight’s White Sox-Dodgers Game
There’s value in the over on Thursday night when the Dodgers host the White Sox in Los Angeles.
This is the third of the three-game series, which is tied 1-1. On Tuesday, the Dodgers won and the total went under when Tony Gonsolin got the start. Last night, the White Sox prevailed and got the best of Clayton Kershaw, winning 8-4 and rewarding handsomely those who took them on the moneyline.
Dylan Cease gets the start for Chicago, and after finishing as the runner-up for the AL Cy Young last season, Cease has been uneven this year. His ERA is at 4.47 for the season, but what is most concerning is 48% hard-hit rate -- which ranks in the bottom 8% of the league. That should spell trouble vs. a potent Dodgers offense that has scored the third-most runs per game this season (5.55) while leading the league in ISO (raw power).
On the other side, Michael Grove gets the start for the Dodgers. Grove has an ERA of 8.28 across five major-league starts, and though the underlying metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky, he doesn’t induce a lot of whiffs, walks too many batters and he allows a lot of contact. That can add up in a hurry.
Both bullpens are also among the worst in MLB. The Dodgers now own a 4.90 ERA (29th) while the White Sox own a 4.76 ERA (26th).
With games averaging 9.09 runs per game at Dodgers Stadium this season, I am happy to take the over at +100 with the possibility of a push at 9.
Look for Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts to stay hot at the dish for the Dodgers, and Luis Robert Jr. to chip in for the Sox.
The Bet: White Sox-Dodgers Over 9 (+100)
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