NFL Week 4 Player Props to Target: Banking on a Pair of Bears
It’s Week 4 and things are finally starting to settle a bit. I’m finding more and more player props I like as we see patterns emerging. Last week, four of our six player props hit, and we are looking for more success this weekend! If you’d like to get in on the action with us, here are five player props I am targeting for this weekend’s matchups.
Justin Fields over 58.5 rushing yards (-110)
I’m all in on Fields for DFS and so I’m going to back him here, too. Is there a better scenario than vs. the Broncos at home for Fields to get right? If the coaching staff doesn’t come to their senses and allow their QB to do what he does best, then we won’t try this play again. Last season, Fields averaged 76 rushing yards per game. Fields is averaging only 36 rushing yards per game this season, but he logged 59 in Week 1 and this matchup is much better for a mobile QB. The Broncos have allowed 177 rushing yards per game this season and an average of 5.61 yards per attempt.
When he’s not running himself Sunday, Bears quarterback Justin Fields will be handing off to rookie running back Roschon Johnson.
Kim Klement Neitzel/USA TODAY Sports
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Roschon Johnson over 30.5 rushing yards (-130)
Johnson is averaging exactly 30 yards per game this season, but each week he has seen his role increased. In Week 3, he had one more rushing attempt than Khalil Herbert. The talented rookie has exceeded this prop in each of the last two contests, and the matchup is juicy this week vs. a Broncos team that has allowed the most rushing yards (497) to opposing runners this season.
Rhamondre Stevenson under 52.5 rushing yards (-115)
Not only did Ezekiel Elliott have 16 attempts last weekend, eating into Stevenson’s share, but Stevenson is averaging only 2.9 yards per attempt this season while Zeke is averaging 4.4. Add to that the revenge game narrative for Elliott, and I don’t see Stevenson eclipsing this number vs. a Dallas defense that will be fired up after last weekend’s loss to Arizona. Stevenson has only exceeded this prop in one game this season, when he logged 59 yards vs. the Jets in Week 3.
Keenan Allen over 7.5 receptions (+110)
No player has more catches than Allen this season (32), and the Chargers will be playing without Mike Williams. Allen has exceeded this prop in two of three games this season, and the plus money payout is attractive for the veteran that owns a 41% team target share vs. a Raiders defense that has allowed a 76.6% catch rate this year (second-highest).
Adam Thielen over 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
Who doesn’t love a revenge game narrative? Not only has Thielen exceeded this prop in each of the last two games, he leads the team with 25 targets for an average of more than eight per game. He’s also averaging more than 70 yards per game after his monster day last Sunday, and this week he gets a Vikings defense that has allowed a 76.6% catch rate, and 9.86 yards per target to opposing wide receivers (third-most in each of those categories). Whether it is Bryce Young or Andy Dalton starting, I’ll take the over.
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