Patrick Mahomes' Slide Delivers Crushing Blow to Bettors Plus Other Week 4 Bad Beats
In Week 4, betting favorites winning dominated the slate winning 12 of the 15 games (80%), while also covering against the spread (ATS) at a 64.3% clip . However, one of the teams with the largest point spreads, served up arguably the worst bad beat of the week.
On Sunday Night Football, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were 8.5-point road favorites against the Jets. Based on the recent disappointing play by Zach Wilson, the betting public heavily backed the defending Super Bowl champions heading into MetLife Stadium.
Faced with 3rd and 8 from the Jets 11-yard line with just two minutes remaining in the game, Mahomes evaded the Jets pass rush and sprinted toward the goal line. However, since the Jets were out of timeouts, the two-time Super Bowl MVP wisely slid down at the Jets two-yard line instead of scoring an easy walk-in touchdown.
Following several kneel-downs Kansas City secured the win, but failed to cover the point spread, resulting in tens of millions of dollars being shifted in favor of sportsbooks around the country.
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Justin Herbert’s Two Rushing Touchdowns Results In +12500 Player Prop Wager Hit
While one elite quarterback provided a bad beat, another not known for his rushing prowess, delivered one of the biggest wagering wins of the week.
A bettor on X placed a $100 player proposition wager on Chargers star signal-caller Justin Herbert scoring at least two rushing touchdowns against the Raiders.
The Los Angeles star quarterback scored the game’s first touchdown early in the first quarter on an elusive 12-yard scramble.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
When Herbert, who did not score any rushing touchdowns in 17 games last season, plunged in for a second time just prior to halftime the investment cashed. The $100 wager returned a total of $12,500.
Betting Landscape
In Week 4, bettors witnessed home teams go 7-7 straight-up (SU), while also owning a solid 7-6-1 against the spread (ATS). Road teams now only own a slight 33-30 SU (52.4%) edge, while still posting a profitable 36-25-2 (ATS) (59%) mark.
*Editor's Note: International games are not included in home/road stats
Bettors watched favorites post a strong 12-3 (SU) and 9-5-1 (ATS) mark, leaving underdogs with a slight 31-30-2 ATS (50.8%) edge on the season.
Overall, games were lower scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 8-7 mark to the under. On the year, unders now own a small lead with a mark of 35-27 (56.5%).
Bad Beats
Chicago Bettors Dealt Horrible Beat As Bears Blow 21-point Lead
Chicago backers felt extremely comfortable when the Bears jumped out to a 28-7 lead early in the third quarter. However, Russell Wilson and the Broncos scored 24 unanswered points, handing Chicago their 14th consecutive defeat. Bettors were left stunned after Justin Fields fumbled, resulting in a scoop and score, that tied the game. Despite an incredible performance by Fields, the Broncos beat the Bears, 31-28, spoiling all +140 moneyline wagers.
Zach Ertz Drops Late TD, Delivers Bad Beat To Underdog Arizona Bettors
Trailing 35-16, with only seconds remaining in the game, the Cardinals were driving for a garbage time score. Arizona’s Joshua Dobbs fired a perfect pass to tight end Zach Ertz at the San Francisco three-yard line. The normally reliable veteran pass-catching talent let the ball slip through his hands for what would have been an easy touchdown. The Cardinals, who were the biggest underdogs (+14.5) of Week 4, brutally came up short of an easy back-door cover.
Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
Sportsbook Earn Vital Decisions Over Public Bettors
74% of money on Miami ML (+135)
- Bills blowout Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins, 48-20.
84% of money on Over MIN/ CAR (46)
- Vikings earn low-scoring 21-13 road win over the Panthers.
69% of money on Bengals (-3)
- Joe Burrow and the Bengals suffer a 27-3 blowout road loss at Tennessee, 27-3.
72% of money on Chiefs (-8)
- Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs escape with a 23-20 win, but fail to cover the spread.
Lucky Bettor Goes 12-for-12 on NFL Parlay, Winning Over $100,000 on $100 Wager
One bettor, who goes by the name "pushingparlays" on Instagram went 12-for-12 on an NFL parlay on Sunday. The investor correctly selected the Bills (-142), Eagles (-440), Vikings (-4.5), Titans (+130), Ravens (+105), Rams (-1), Bears (+3.5), Chargers (-290), Cowboys (-258) and Jets (+8.5) . The 12-leg parlay won at odds of +108,896.
Scoring ‘Futility’ Investment Leads To Healthy Return
One bettor, who goes by the name __laz.szn__ on Instagram placed a wager that three NFL clubs would fail to score a touchdown in their Week 4 matchups. The investor correctly predicted that the Browns (+400), Steelers (+850) and Saints (+600) would not find the end zone. After combining the trio of scoring "futility" propositions into a three-leg parlay the investment won at odds of +33,150.
SURVIVOR POOL
Recap
In Week 4, Survivor Pool contestants at Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas strongly selected San Francisco (-14.5) over Arizona, Philadelphia (-8.5) over Washington, the Chargers (-6.5) over Las Vegas and Kansas City (-8) over the Jets.
The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.
In Week 4 of the NFL season, the 49ers, Eagles, Chargers and Chiefs substantially made up 80.5% of the selections in the $9.3 million contest.
After all the heavy favorites emerged victorious, only around 3.0% of the pool were knocked out due to very few outright upsets.
Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports
Look-Ahead
Here are three games that will likely be heavily chosen by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 5.
Washington (-7) vs Chicago (TNF)
Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.
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