NFL Week 5 Betting Recap: $5 Player Prop Wager Returning $153K

Some bad beats and big payouts headline the betting action from Week 5 in the NFL.

Through five weeks of NFL action only two teams, Philadelphia (5-0) and San Francisco (5-0), remain unbeaten. From a betting perspective, the 49ers are joined by the AFC East leading Dolphins and the first place NFC North Lions, as the clubs with the best against the spread (ATS) marks at 4-1.

After suffering both straight-up (SU) and ATS losses on Sunday, the Giants (0-5), Denver (0-4-1) and Carolina (0-4-1) have been the most profitable teams for bettors to “fade” failing to cover the spread in any of their games thus far this season.

The most frustrating team for bettors to figure out is arguably the Falcons (3-2). While Atlanta has enjoyed a solid start to the year, the emerging NFC South club is only 1-4 ATS despite never being favored by more than 3.5-points.

While the Panthers (0-5) are the only winless team in the NFL, the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs have ripped off four consecutive wins since being upset by Detroit in the season opener.

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Even though parity has made it difficult for sports bettors to predict the outcomes of games, player proposition wagers have proven to be extremely profitable investments.

Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase celebrates one of his three touchdowns in Cincinnati's 34-20 win over Arizona at State Farm Stadium :: Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports

$5 Eight-Leg Player Prop Parlay Wager Produces Massive Win

One bettor turned a $5 player proposition wager into a six-figure win on Sunday.

The investment involved Breece Hall and Devon Achane topping 100 rushing yards, combined with Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Ja'Marr Chase and A.J. Brown to all surpass the century mark in receiving yards.

The bettor, who was clearly concerned amid reports that Cooper Kupp would be limited in 2023 debut, opted to invest in his receiving yard projection of 64.5 yards as opposed to his “alternative yardage” market of 100-plus. When Kupp finished with 118 yards, the $5 wager returned a staggering $153,394.

Tight End ‘Anytime Touchdown’ Parlay Leads To Big Hit

The @ThaLoungeSports on ‘X’ placed a $100 player proposition wager on three tight ends scoring at least one touchdown in the Week 5 late afternoon slate.

After the Eagles' Dallas Goedert scored early in the first quarter against the Rams and Arizona’s Zach Ertz scored in the second quarter against the Bengals, the bettor was sitting on Denver’s Adam Trautman finding the end zone against the Jets.

When the Broncos veteran tight end, who had not scored this season, hauled in a three-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter the $100 investment returned a whopping $15,162.

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Final Play In Bills-Jaguars UK Matchup Results In 'Miraculous Win'

A bettor named @joshfalcone on Instagram made a $75 player proposition investment involving three wideouts playing in the Buffalo-Jacksonville showdown in London.

After both Calvin Ridley (122) surpassed 110 receiving yards and Gabe Davis (100) exceeded 90 receiving yards late in the fourth quarter, the bettor was sweating Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs to exceed 120 receiving yards.

The star wide receiver was sitting on 109 yards with just :21 seconds remaining in the game. After Josh Allen connected with Diggs over the middle of the field on Buffalo's final offensive play, the veteran attempted to lateral the ball which resulted in a fumble recovered by the Jaguars. Diggs made a 16 yard reception at the Buffalo 22 yard line, but the fumble took the ball back to the 18. Despite the lost yardage, Diggs gained the necessary yards after being credited with 12 yards resulting in a final total of 121 receiving yards. The $75 bet returned an impressive $15,825.

Betting Landscape

In Week 5, bettors witnessed home teams go 7-6 (SU), while posting a disappointing 6-7 (ATS) mark . Road teams now only own a slight 40-36 SU (52.6%) edge, while still posting a profitable 41-33-2 (ATS) (55.4%) mark.

*Editor's Note: International games are not included in home / road stats

Sports bettors watched underdogs post both a 7-7 SU and ATS mark, leaving underdogs and favorites with an even split 38-38-2 ATS (50.0%) on the season.

Games were lower scoring than oddsmakers expected in Week 5, posting a 9-5 mark to the under. On the year, unders now own a lead with a mark of 44-34 (56.4%).

Bad Beat

Eagles 'Brotherly Shove' Results In Bad Beat For 1H Rams Bettors

Los Angeles, who were 2.5-point home underdogs for the first half, were leading the Eagles 14-10, with only two seconds remaining. After a pass interference call in the end zone placed the ball at the Rams one-yard line, Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni opted against kicking a field goal due to the strong success the ‘Birds have executing the "Brotherly Shove". On the final play of the half, Jalen Hurts scored resulting in a 17-14 Eagles lead at halftime and a Philadelphia (-2.5) cover.

Tush push or brotherly shove? Either way, it's a touchdown for the @Eagles 💪

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/NAjsCv8uYs

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 8, 2023

Sportsbook Earn Vital Decisions Over Public Bettors

66% of money on Buffalo (-4.5)

• The Jaguars upset the Bills in London, 25-20.

81% of money on New England (-1.5)

• Bettors were disappointed when New Orleans shut out the Patriots 34-0.

74% of money on MIN/KC Over (52.5)

• The Chiefs and Vikings, the highest total of Week 5, came up several points short of the oddsmakers demand in a 27-20 Kansas City win.

64% of money on Ravens (-4.5)

• Baltimore blew a 4th quarter lead and were upset at Pittsburgh, 17-10.

66% of money on Rams (+3.5)

• Despite the return of Cooper Kupp, the Eagles improved to 5-0, beating the Rams 23-14 and easily covering the 3.5-point spread.

SURVIVOR POOL

Recap

In Week 5, Survivor Pool contestants at Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas strongly selected Miami (-12.5) over the Giants, Detroit (-9.5) over Carolina and Washington (-6.5) over Chicago.

The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.

In Week 5 of the NFL season, the Dolphins, Lions and Commanders incredibly made up 89.7% of the selections in the $9.3 million contest.

After the biggest favorites of the week (Miami and Detroit) easily emerged victorious on Sunday, 17.3% of the pool were knocked out by Chicago's upset of Washington on Thursday night.

Chicago Bears' WR DJ Moore celebrates with QB Justin Fields during Thursday's win over the Washington Commanders at FedExField / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Look-Ahead

Here are three games that will likely be heavily chosen by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 6.

Kansas City (-10.5) vs Denver (TNF)

Buffalo (-14) vs NY Giants

Miami (-13.5) vs Carolina

Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.