College Football Conference Championship Predictions and Best Bets

Picks for the Georgia-Alabama SEC Championship and Oregon-Washington Pac-12 Championship, both of which could sway the College Football Playoff final four.

Author:
Kyle Wood
Publish date:
Nov 30, 2023

In this story:

Conference championship week arrives with way more College Football Playoff contenders than available spots. Two of the Power Five title games pit top-10 teams against one another, which should help sort things out before the committee finalizes its top four Sunday.

No. 1 Georgia is favored to beat No. 8 Alabama in the SEC Championship on Saturday in Atlanta, something it has never done before. A win puts the Bulldogs back in the CFP, where they’ve won the last two titles, but a loss opens the door for the SEC to potentially be left out of the playoff entirely for the first time since its inception.

No. 5 Oregon gets another crack at No. 3 Washington in the last-ever Pac-12 Championship. This is more of a win-and-in situation for the Ducks and Huskies, each of whom have made an appearance in the CFP before.

Keep an eye on the games going on in Charlotte, Indianapolis and Arlington this weekend as well, but the two that command our attention are being played in Atlanta and Las Vegas.

SEC Championship: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama

Head coaches Kirby Smart of Greorgia and Nick Saban of Alabama. — Kirby Smart and Nick Saban have coached against each other in so many important games the last few years, and Saturday’s SEC title game is next on that list.
Jason Getz/USA TODAY Sports

The last time Georgia lost was when these two powerhouses met on this same stage in 2021. Since Alabama beat the Bulldogs in Atlanta, UGA has won 29 games in a row, including the last two national championships, one at the expense of the Crimson Tide. Nick Saban’s team returns to the conference championship game riding a winning streak of its own — ’Bama has won 10 straight and the committee would be hard-pressed to keep the Tide out of the playoff if they upset the two-time defending champs to take back the SEC title.

Georgia (12–0, 8–0 SEC) and Alabama (11–1, 8–0 SEC) survived rivalry week scares. The Bulldogs held off a Georgia Tech comeback effort to win 31–23 without tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey. The Crimson Tide had a much closer call. It took a Jalen Milroe touchdown pass on fourth-and-goal from the 31-yard line to win 27–24 at Auburn, which lost at home to New Mexico State the week before.

UGA is a top-10 team nationally in scoring offense (39.6 points per game) and defense (15.8). Quarterback Carson Beck is 10th in the FBS in passing yards (3,495) even though Bowers and McConkey, two of his top targets, have missed large chunks of the season. The Bulldogs also get it done on the ground as Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton each have double-digit rushing touchdowns.

Kirby Smart’s team has had some close calls this season — a 27–20 win at Auburn, a 30–21 victory over Missouri and last week’s game against Georgia Tech — but Georgia has been unbeatable for the better part of three years. Still, the Bulldogs are 0–3 all-time against the Tide in the SEC Championship.

Were it not for Milroe’s clutch touchdown, Alabama would be playing for pride this weekend as a second loss would have knocked the team out of playoff contention. Instead, the Tide have a shot at returning to the CFP, where they’ve made a record seven appearances. Saban’s team is top 20 in scoring offense (35.8) and defense (17.9) and has only gotten better as the season progresses.

The same team that lost to Texas by 10 at home and followed that up with an ugly 14-point win over USF beat Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee by two scores apiece. Milroe has made great strides as a passer, establishing a reliable connection with Jermaine Burton, and still makes plenty of plays with his legs — he leads the team with 12 rushing touchdowns.

Georgia will be able to keep Milroe in check as a passer and force Alabama to attempt to move the ball on the ground against its front seven. The Bulldogs simply have more options on offense than the Crimson Tide, especially if Bowers is back. Saban’s team has been better against the spread (8–4) than Smart’s (4–7–1) but many of those UGA losses for bettors were big spreads. As a favorite of 14 points or fewer, the Bulldogs are 3–2 and they’ve covered their last two in that position. They’ll make it three in a row just down the road in Atlanta and return to the CFP as the No. 1 seed.

Best Bet: Georgia -6.5 (-110)

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Pac-12 Championship: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 3 Washington

Washington's Rome Odunze and Michael Penix Jr. celebrate after a touchdown — Rome Odunze and Michael Penix Jr. form one of the most formidable passing combos in college football.
Lindsey Wasson/AP

The Huskies got the best of the Ducks in a mid-October meeting of Heisman candidates. Michael Penix Jr. threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns in a 36–33 win while Bo Nix, the current betting favorite, also accounted for more than 300 passing yards and a pair of scores.

These programs have been on a collision course since they met in Seattle and they’ll match up again Friday night in Las Vegas with the final Pac-12 Championship Game and a shot at a playoff spot on the line.

Since that game, Oregon (11–1, 8–1 Pac-12) has rolled its competition while Washington (12–0, 8–0 Pac-12) has eked out wins week after week. Dan Lanning’s Ducks won five of their next six games by double digits; Kalen DeBoer’s Huskies only won one of their next six by 10-plus points, and they barely beat Washington State 24–21 last week, a team that was vying for bowl eligibility. Oregon also handled Oregon State 31–7 in its season finale, a week after the Beavers nearly beat Washington, 22–20.

The Ducks are No. 2 in the country in scoring average (45.3 points per game), second only to LSU, and they’re also seventh in points allowed (15.9). Bo Nix leads the FBS in passing yards (3,906) and Troy Franklin, his top target, is third in receiving yards (1,349). Bucky Irving and Jordan James lead an efficient rushing attack with 10 touchdowns apiece and Irving is also heavily involved as a receiver.

Penix has the second-most passing yards (3,899) after Nix and his No. 1 receiver Rome Odunze is one spot behind Franklin in receiving yards (1,326). The Huskies rank 11th in points per game (38) and are evidently on Oregon’s level on offense, which they proved when they met more than a month ago. Where UW does not stack up is on defense, where it ranks 46th in points allowed (23). This unit allowed 33 points to Stanford and 42 to USC, two teams the Ducks held to 33 points combined.

This game has the highest over/under of championship weekend, which makes sense given how proficient both offenses are. However, the optimal play here is the under even though these teams combined for 69 points when they faced off in the regular season. Oregon’s defense has proved its mettle down the stretch, holding two top-25 teams to single digits since its lone loss, and Washington’s offense is averaging just 27 points per game over its last three, compared to 41.8 over the first nine games of the season.

The Ducks should exact their revenge at Allegiant Stadium, but 9.5 is a hefty number to cover, especially when we’re on the under.

Best Bet: Under 65.5 (-110)

College Football Betting Record: 20–8

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