Patriots vs. Steelers Player Props and Predictions for ‘Thursday Night Football’
This week’s Thursday Night Football has the lowest game total of the season at a mere 29.5 on SI Sportsbook.
The Steelers will face the Patriots, and both will be going to battle without the quarterback they started the season with. The Steelers will go with veteran Mitchell Trubisky, who threw one touchdown last week in relief of Kenny Pickett. Trubisky had four touchdown passes last season for the Steelers, appearing in seven games. The Patriots are expected to start Bailey Zappe again this week, but that could change at any moment. Whoever they start, it likely won’t be successful vs. a tough Steelers defense that has allowed only 19 points per game this season to opponents. The Patriots are averaging a league-worst 12.3 points per game of offense this year. The Steelers have also been limited offensively, averaging only 16 points of offense per game.
Both teams are likely to lean on their run games, with Pittsburgh having the superior running back room. Rhamondre Stevenson will miss this game for the Patriots, leaving Ezekiel Elliott to run the backfield. That’s fine, and certainly Elliott could get a goal-line carry or two, but it’s unlikely we will see the Patriots light up the scoreboard. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have been a formidable tandem for the Steelers, but they will have their work cut out for them vs. a Bill Belichick defense that has allowed a mere 75 yards per game to opposing runners his season, and only 52 yards per game across the last three.
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All of this intro is to set up my favorite game prop bet for Thursday night. Rather than just betting on the under, I’ve found a bet you can turn into plus money that still allows the total to go over -- just in case.
Neither team gets to 20 points (+105).
There it is! I’m definitely investing in this one, and I may also sprinkle some on neither team getting to 15 points, which pays +330.
Here are two player props I have my eye on.
Allen Robinson over 10.5 receiving yards (-110)
Allen Robinson hasn’t made a huge impression with the Steelers, but he could see some action Thursday night.
Gregory Fisher/USA TODAY Sports
Belichick is notorious for taking out the opposing team’s top target. There’s no way he’s worried about stopping Allen Robinson. Robinson was targeted three times last week for 19 yards and he has exceeded this prop in all of the last three. Trubisky could be looking to dump it off to the veteran slot receiver.
Pat Freiermuth over 28.5 receiving yards (-115)
Freiermuth has seen 16 targets across the past two contests, and he has exceeded this prop in each of them. It’s not a great matchup for the tight end, but New England has allowed an average of 38 yards per game to the position, so Freirmuth could just clear this mark.
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