Home Teams Winning, Underdogs Covering Highlight Wild Card Weekend Betting
The wild card round delivered several upsets that swayed the opening round of games of the NFL postseason in favor of the oddsmakers.
Home teams rewarded bettors in the first round of the playoffs posting an impressive 5-1 record both Straight-Up (SU) and Against the Spread over the six matchups. The Dallas Cowboys were the only club not to successfully defend their home turf.
Meanwhile, underdogs carried over their dominance from the regular season proving to once again be very lucrative to support finishing with a 4-2 ATS mark (Texans +2; Packers +7; Rams +3; Buccaneers +3).
Let's take a quick look back at wild card weekend from a betting perspective:
Texans Dominate Browns In Stroud's Playoff Debut
The weekend commenced on Saturday with C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans upsetting Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns. Houston, who is 3-1 SU and ATS over their last four games, dominated Cleveland on both sides of the ball earning a 45-14 win as 2-point home underdogs. The surging Texans, who will head on the road in the divisional round to face the top-seeded Ravens, are 3-1 SU and ATS over their last four games away from NRG Stadium.
"Playoff Mahomes" Extends Postseason Winning Streak
The nightcap on Saturday night found Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs beating Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins, 26-7. Kansas City’s two-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback has never lost in the wild card or divisional round in his career (7-0 SU), The Chiefs, who are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS over their last three games, are anchored by one of the NFL’s best defenses. After shutting down Miami’s high-powered offense, the Chiefs stayed under the posted game total of 44 and now own an impressive record of 13-5 (72.2%) to the under this season.
C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love shined in their NFL playoff debuts leading their respective clubs to dominant upset wins.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports (left); Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports (right)
Green Bay Upsets Cowboys In Love's Playoff Debut
On Sunday afternoon, the Green Bay Packers pulled off the biggest upset of the opening round becoming the first No. 7 seed in NFL history to win a playoff game blowing out the Cowboys 48-32 as 7-point road underdogs. Green Bay, who cashed on the money line at odds of +305, are now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS over their last four games. After posting a combined 80 points, the Packers have now played to an impressive 7-1 (87.5%) to the over over their last eight games overall.
Lions Win First Playoff Game In Three Decades
The Detroit Lions won their first playoff game in 32 years, holding on to beat Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams, 24-23. The victory by Detroit was bittersweet for bettors as the Lions failed to cover the 3-point spread. The Lions, who co-own the best record versus the number (tied with Tampa Bay) in the NFL (12-6 ATS), failed to cover the spread for the first time in the club’s last five games (4-1 ATS). Detroit’s plethora of offensive weapons has resulted in sharp bettors strongly backing high-scoring affairs in their matchups over the last several months. Despite staying under the posted total of 52 points against Los Angeles, Dan Campbell’s squad has posted a highly lucrative 7-3 mark to the over dating back to Week 10.
Josh Allen Shines In Win Over Steelers
The third straight day of playoff action treated NFL fans to a dominant performance by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. The dual-threat signal-caller made NFL playoff history in the victory, becoming the first player to throw three-plus touchdown passes while also rushing for over 70 yards and a touchdown in a single postseason game. The Bills, who own a six-game winning streak, have posted a profitable 4-2 ATS mark over the span after covering the 10-point spread in the club's 31-17 win over Pittsburgh. Despite playing to over the posted total of 39.5 in the wild card victory, the Bills own a 5-4 mark to the under in home games at Highmark Stadium this season.
Tampa Bay Ousts Eagles From Playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers blew out the Philadelphia Eagles 32-9 at Raymond James Stadium in the final showcase of Monday Night Football this season. The Eagles, who started the season 10-1, fell apart down the stretch losing six of their last seven games. From a betting perspective, the Eagles burned their backers posting a dreadful 0-7 ATS record over that span. On the flip side, after the win over Philadelphia, Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have now covered the spread in five of their last six games, moving into a tie with Detroit boasting the best ATS record (12-6 ATS) in the NFL.
"Three Touchdown" SGP Results In Incredible Payout
One bettor named @paddy_bailey on Instagram placed a $5 Same-Game Parlay wager on Sunday.
The investment consisted of Green Bay’s Aaron Jones (+5500) and Dallas’ Jake Ferguson both scoring at least three touchdowns each in their respective matchups.
Jones, who headed into the game with only three touchdowns in 11 games this season, found the end zone twice in the first half. After Jones scored his third touchdown of the game midway through the third quarter, the wager needed the Cowboys second-year tight end to score at least twice during garbage time of the Packers’ blowout.
When Dak Prescott found Ferguson twice over the final six minutes, the $5 wager at odds of +150000 returned an huge payout of $7,505.
Isiah Pacheco celebrates scoring the first touchdown of the game with tight end Travis Kelce during the Chiefs 26-7 AFC wild card game win over Miami at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Seven-Leg Parlay Leads To Five-Figure Score
On Saturday, one bettor by the name of @jon_.john on Instagram placed a $100 seven-leg parlay involving various outcomes in both the Browns-Texans and Dolphins-Chiefs showdowns.
The investment commenced with needing C.J. Stroud surpassing 244.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns as well as a Houston win.
After all of three of those outcomes came to fruition in the Texans 45-14 convincing victory, the ticket needed four positive results in the nightcap between Kansas City and Miami.
The $100 wager at odds of +19491 got off to a fast start when Isiah Pacheco scored the first touchdown of the game. After Tyreek Hill scored in the second quarter and Kansas City (-4.5) emerged victorious 26-7 keeping the game under the total (44), the celebration commenced.
Green Bay's shocking road upset of the No. 2 seed Dallas wiped out the majority of NFL teaser and parlay liability for sportsbooks.
Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports
Significant Decisions In Favor of Sportsbooks In Wild Card Round
72% of money on Cleveland -2
- The Texans outscored the Browns 21-0 in the second half, leading to a 45-14 upset.
84% of money on LA Rams Moneyline +160
- While bettors strongly backed Matthew Stafford and the the Rams as +160 road underdogs, Detroit came away with a one-point win.
71% of money on Dallas -7
- The Cowboys, the biggest liability for sportsbooks in both teasers and parlays, burned bettors after suffering a shocking 48-32 blowout loss at AT&T Stadium.
76% of money on Eagles -3
- After suffering a 32-9 loss at Tampa Bay, the Eagles burned bettors down the stretch failing to cover the spread in seven consecutive games (0-7 ATS).
After failing to cover the three-point spread in their wild card win over the Rams, the Lions now co-own the best ATS mark with Tampa Bay this season.
Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
2023 ATS RECORDS
TEAM RECORD
Detroit 12-6-0
Tampa Bay 12-6-0
Baltimore 11-6-0
Houston 11-7-0
Kansas City 10-7-1
Green Bay 10-8-0
San Francisco 9-8-0
Buffalo 8-10-0
2023 OVER/UNDER RECORDS
TEAM RECORD (to the Over)
Detroit 11-7-0
Green Bay 11-7-0
San Francisco 10-7-0
Baltimore 8-9-0
Houston 7-11-0
Buffalo 7-11-0
Tampa Bay 6-12-0
Kansas City 5-13-0
The Ravens and 49ers are atop the Super Bowl futures betting board heading into the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports (Jackson); Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (Purdy)
UPDATED SUPER BOWL BOWL FUTURES
SUPER BOWL ODDS AT SI SPORTSBOOK
San Francisco +180
Baltimore +290
Buffalo +550
Kansas City +700
Detroit +950
Houston +1700
Green Bay +2200
Tampa Bay +2500
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