MLB Player Props: Here’s What the Market Is Predicting for Yankees Slugger Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge’s player prop futures are out now for the 2024 season.
Here are the current home run and RBI markets for the Bronx Bomber:
Home Runs: 44.5
Over (-110) | Under (-110)
RBIs: 112.5
Over (110) | Under (-110)
Judge is just one season removed from a 62-home run, 131-RBI season for which he earned his first AL MVP award, and the sportsbook is expecting big things again from the New York Yankees slugger.
Kim Klement Neitzel/USA TODAY Sports
Despite playing a career-low 106 games last season, primarily due to a freak toe injury, Judge hit 37 home runs and logged 75 RBIs. That would equate to 56 home runs and 115 RBIs in a 162-game season, and those 56 bombs would have again led MLB. He led the league with a 64.2% hard-hit rate, 97.6 mph average exit velocity and 14.4% barrels per appearance.
Most projection systems have Judge exceeding the above home run total. His skills did not regress much from his 2022 MVP season, and health looks like the only thing that would keep him from having another MVP-caliber season.
If you’re willing to bet on Judge’s health, he is also the favorite to lead the league in home runs (+350), with Matt Olson (+600), Pete Alonso (+700) and Kyle Schwarber rounding out the top four.
Let’s examine his RBI prop. Hitting behind Juan Soto, who has an elite career wOBA of .400, Judge should have plenty of opportunities to rack up those counting stats. However, there is a possibility that Soto clears the bases with some RBIs of his own, leaving fewer opportunities for Judge.
Judge exceeded these home run and RBI totals in his 2017 and 2022 seasons.
Perhaps the best value, however, is to bet on Judge to lead the league in RBIs for +800. Derek Carty’s The BatX projection has Judge slated for 112 RBIs, which is also projected to be the most in MLB, though it still goes under his RBI prop. If I’m tying up my bankroll for the season, I’ll take the risk for the 8-to-1 payout. According to the sportsbook, only Yordan Alvarez (+650) and Soto (+750) have better odds than Judge. Alvarez has health issues, and Soto might struggle a bit under the microscope of New York. Judge looks like a solid play.
Finally, Judge is the favorite at +550 to win the AL MVP again in 2024, just ahead of Soto (+600)
The Bet: Aaron Judge to lead MLB in RBIs (+800)
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