2026 Heisman Trophy Odds: Darian Mensah Vaults Into Top Spot Ahead of Jeremiah Smith; Can CJ Carr Can Flip Odds?

Only four weeks remain in the 2026 college football regular season, and there’s a new favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah has been in the top five in the odds to win the Heisman all season, and he officially took the top spot from Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith after Saturday’s Week 9 action.

Mensah’s play may not have been the driving force in this movie, but rather Ohio State’s loss to USC. The Buckeyes now have two losses this season and could end up missing the College Football Playoff if they continue to struggle with starting quarterback Julian Sayin sidelined.

Smith still had a big game in Week 9, catching 10 passes for 83 yards and a score, but oddsmakers have shifted their focus to Mensah, who kept the No. 1 Hurricanes undefeated with a win over North Carolina in Week 9.

Miami is in the driver’s seat to win the ACC heading into a marquee matchup against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 10. That game could flip this Heisman market, as Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr (+1200 to win the Heisman) is currently tied for fourth in the odds with Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.

The top five in the Heisman market has remained the same, and there is a wide gap after that with Drew Mestemaker (+5000), Gunner Stockton (+5000) and Sam Leavitt (+5000) headlining the next group of stars.

For now, this seems to be Mensah’s award to lose, as a win over Notre Dame would only further the star quarterback’s case this season.

Here’s a look at the latest odds and some key movement in the market after Week 9 of the college football season.

2026 Heisman Trophy Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Darian Mensah: +160
Jeremiah Smith: +270
Malachi Toney: +350
CJ Carr: +1200
Trinidad Chambliss: +1200
Drew Mestemaker: +5000
Gunner Stockton: +5000
Sam Leavitt: +5000
Jesse Legree: +6500
Gio Lopez: +8000

No other player has better than +10000 odds to win the Heisman this season.

Darian Mensah Now Favored to Win Heisman in 2026 Season

Mensah jumped from +290 to +160 to win the Heisman this season after taking down North Carolina on Saturday.

Miami actually trailed 28-24 entering the fourth quarter of that game, but Mensah led two touchdown drives, capping things off with a touchdown pass to Malachi Toney to give the
Hurricanes a two-score lead that they wouldn't give up.

Mensah finished the day with 274 passing yards, 36 rushing yards and three passing scores, pushing his touchdown total to 25 passing and two rushing this season. He’s been insanely efficient, completing 80.7 percent of his passes while throwing just one interception.

Things will get a lot tougher with Notre Dame on deck in Week 10, and Miami is an underdog in that matchup. A loss would really hurt Mensah’s Heisman case, so bettors should be careful about taking him at this price before the Notre Dame game.

Julian Sayin Injury Crushes Jeremiah Smith’s Heisman Case

Jeremiah Smith still had a strong game in Week 9 with Julian Sayin out, but the Ohio State offense struggled as a whole, scoring just 18 points in a loss.

Now that the Buckeyes have two losses, there’s a chance they lose again and miss the College Football Playoff altogether. That would crush Smith’s Heisman case, even though he’s been the best player in the sport this season.

Smith has 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 scores, but he hasn’t had a 100-yard game in three straight contests. So, there’s no doubt that the Ohio State quarterback play is impacting the star wideout, and he’s fallen from an odds-on favorite all the way down to +270 in the last few weeks.

CJ Carr Could Flip Heisman Odds in Week 10

I mentioned this in the Mensah section, but there’s a chance Carr and the Fighting Irish win in Week 10 against Miami, which would totally change the Heisman market.

Notre Dame is actually favored to make that happen, and a loss for Mensah in a head-to-head with Carr could move the Notre Dame quarterback into the top spot in this market. Carr entered the season as the favorite to win the Heisman, and he’s put together a pretty impressive season.

The junior has thrown for 18 touchdowns and just one interception, tossing a pair of scores in an easy win over Navy in Week 9. There’s a chance Notre Dame is the No. 1 team in the country if it beats Miami in Week 10, and that would do wonders for Carr’s odds to win the Heisman.

He may be the best value bet on the board at +1200.

Malachi Toney’s Late Touchdown Keeps Him in Heisman Race

Miami wideout Malachi Toney remains in third in the odds to win the Heisman, but it’s hard to see him finishing ahead of Mensah in 2026.

Toney had a down game (by his standards) in Week 9, catching just seven passes for 75 yards, but he did have two touchdowns, including the game-clinching score in the fourth quarter.

For the season, Toney has 73 catches (more than Smith) for 1,027 yards and 13 scores (the same amount as Smith). He has a real case as the top receiver in college football even though Smith remains ahead of him in the Heisman market.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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