2026 Heisman Trophy Odds: Malachi Toney Injury Vaults Jeremiah Smith Back to Top Spot; CJ Carr Rises

A major shockwave was sent through the college football world on Wednesday night, as Miami Hurricanes star receiver Malachi Toney reportedly is undergoing surgery on a high-ankle sprain and will be sidelined for Week 10 against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

The surgery is expected to sideline Toney for about four weeks, giving him a chance to return for the College Football Playoff. However, the No. 1-ranked Hurricanes are major underdogs against Notre Dame, and oddsmakers have altered the Heisman odds with the star receiver set to miss multiple regular-season contests.

Sources: Malachi Toney has a high ankle sprain and will have surgery, which will allow him to return for the College Football Playoff. The timeline for return from this injury is typcially at least four weeks. pic.twitter.com/ExQSD4IWER
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) November 5, 2026

Toney was No. 3 in the odds to win the Heisman this season behind his teammate Darian Mensah and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. In fact, Mensah had moved to the favorite in the market after a big win over the North Carolina Tar Heels in Week 9. Toney caught two touchdowns in that game, improving on an already impressive campaign.

For the season, Toney has 73 catches (more than Smith) for 1,027 yards and 13 scores (the same amount as Smith). He has a real case as the top receiver in college football, but he’s no longer in the mix to win the Heisman.

Plus, Smith has jumped back ahead of Mensah in the latest odds.

2026 Heisman Trophy Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Jeremiah Smith: +160
Darian Mensah: +165
CJ Carr: +550
Trinidad Chambliss: +950
Sam Leavitt: +3500
Gunner Stockton: +4000
Drew Mestemaker: +6000
Gio Lopez: +8000
Jesse Legree: +8000

No other player has shorter than +10000 odds to win the Heisman.

Earlier in the week, I wrote about CJ Carr and Notre Dame in the Heisman market, as there’s a real case for the quarterback to take the top spot if the team beats Mensah and the Hurricanes on Saturday. It’s likely that whichever team wins that game will have the Heisman favorite unless Smith (who has failed to reach 100 yards in three straight weeks) has a big game for the Buckeyes with a backup quarterback under center.

Carr has thrown for 18 touchdowns and just one interception, tossing a pair of scores in an easy win over Navy in Week 9. There’s a chance Notre Dame is the No. 1 team in the country if it beats Miami in Week 10, and that would do wonders for Carr’s odds to win the Heisman.

It’s interesting to see that Toney’s injury also impacted Mensah’s Heisman odds, and it’s pretty clear that oddsmakers expect the Miami offense to take a hit as a whole.

Hopefully, Toney will be able to return for the College Football Playoff since this Miami team has national title expectations in 2026.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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