2026 MLB Home Run Derby Prediction, Odds, Contestants, Format and Best Bet (Kyle Schwarber Favored)

A pair of Philadelphia Phillies are set to participate in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia as the kick off to this week’s All-Star festivities.

Kyle Schwarber, who leads MLB with 32 home runs, and Bryce Harper headline an eight-player field that will participate in a new-look derby in 2026.

This year, MLB is going away from the timed rounds that have been in the event since 2015 and instead going with a finite number of swings. Each player will get 20 swings in Round 1, 15 swings in Round 2 and 15 more swings in the final round.

All swings will count towards the player’s allotment, but there is one fun wrinkle. The Home Run Derby won’t have a bonus round like in previous years with bonus time getting added, but if a player homers on his final swing of a round, he can keep swinging until he doesn't hit one out.

In Round 1, the tiebreaker (if needed) to advance will be home run distance, while the Round 2 and Round 3 tiebreakers will be a three-swing “swing off.”

All of this is extremely valuable information for those looking to bet on the Home Run Derby, which is one of the most exciting All-Star events across any sport.

Schwarber enters this field as the clear favorite, but there are a bunch of young stars that could get themselves some more recognition on the national stage on Monday, including Tampa Bay Rays All-Star Junior Caminero, New York Yankees All-Star Ben Rice and St. Louis Cardinals All-Star Jordan Walker.

Here’s a look at the participants, odds, past winners and my prediction for tonight’s MLB Home Run Derby.

2026 MLB Home Run Derby Contestants

Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox
Ben Rice, New York Yankees
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals

Out of this field, only Schwarber, Harper and Caminero have participated in the Home Run Derby before, and Harper (2018) is the only past winner.

Caminero came in second to Cal Raleigh in 2025 while Schwarber is making his third Home Run Derby appearance and currently leads MLB with 32 home runs.

There is a lot of young/new talent with Rice, Walker and Murakami making their first-ever All-Star appearances in the 2026 season while Caglianone (not an All-Star) is making his first-ever HRD appearance.

2026 MLB Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Kyle Schwarber: +330
Junior Caminero: +425
Munetaka Murakami: +500
Jac Caglianone: +650
Jordan Walker: +700
Bryce Harper: +850
Ben Rice: +850
Willson Contreras: +1200

The field is going to play a major role in this event, and it may be why Schwarber is favored to win.

Citizens Bank Park is a perfect place for a Home Run Derby, as it ranks seventh in Baseball Savant’s Park Factor rating and No. 8 for home runs. Based on Baseball Savant’s rankings – where the average park factor is 100 – Citizens Bank Park has a home run factor of 110 in the 2026 season, which means 10 percent more home runs were observed at Citizens Bank Park than the average MLB stadium.

It’s also interesting to note that the home run park factor for lefties is 115 at Citizens Bank Park and drops to 104 for right-handed hitters. So, Caminero, Contreras and Walker may be at a little bit of a disadvantage.

Still, oddsmakers have clearly favored the recent experience in the Home Run Derby of Schwarber and Caminero, who were both in last year’s field. Harper has a win under his belt, but he has not been in the Home Run Derby since his win in 2018.

Home Run Derby Past Winners

2025: Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
2024: Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
2023: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
2022: Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
2021: Pete Alonso, New York Mets
2020: Canceled (COVID-19)
2019: Pete Alonso, New York Mets
2018: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
2017: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
2016: Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
2015: Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds
2014: Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics
2013: Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics
2012: Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers
2011: Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
2010: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
2009: Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
2008: Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
2007: Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels
2006: Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
2005: Bobby Abreu, Philadelphia Phillies
2004: Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles
2003: Garret Anderson, Anaheim Angels
2002: Jason Giambi, New York Yankees
2001: Luis Gonzalez, Arizona Diamondbacks
2000: Sammy Sosa, Chicago Cubs
1999: Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle Mariners
1998: Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle Mariners
1997: Tino Martinez, New York Yankees
1996: Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants
1995: Frank Thomas, Chicago White Sox
1994: Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle Mariners
1993: Juan Gonzalez, Texas Rangers
1992: Mark McGuire, Oakland Athletics
1991: Cal Ripken, Baltimore Orioles
1990: Ryne Sandberg, Chicago Cubs
1989: Ruben Sierra, Texas Rangers
1988: Canceled (Rain)
1987: Andre Dawson, Chicago Cubs
1986: Darryl Strawberry, New York Mets; Wally Joyner, California Angels (tie)
1985: Dave Parker, Cincinnati Reds

2026 MLB Home Run Derby Prediction and Best Bet

Now for what you’ve been waiting for… my pick!

The new rules in the Home Run Derby are very interesting because they change the amount of stamina needed by players. In the past format with timed rounds, getting as many quality swings off was key for a high home run total.

Now, batters can take their time and only attack pitches they really want with the finite number of swings allowed for each round.

I think that will benefit Schwarber and Caminero since they have recent Home Run Derby experience and clearly know what is required for them to go deep. Schwarber and Harper certainly have the benefit of playing at their home park, though Schwarber has been far and away the best power hitter in MLB this season.

The park factors are important to note, as Citizens Bank Park clearly favors left-handed bats. It’s shorter down the right-field line (330 feet) than the left-field line (334 feet), and the right-center field area (369 feet) is slightly shorter than left-center field (374 feet).

Even though it’s chalky, it’s hard to pass up Schwarber’s experience in this event, especially at his home park. He’s likely my top choice to win this event, but I believe there is an argument for Ben Rice as well at +850.

The Yankees slugger has been on fire over the last week, hitting five home runs while posting a batting average over .400. He also tripled on Sunday against the Washington Nationals. Rice is a left-handed bat that plays at a favorable park for lefties in Yankees Stadium, and he may be able to take advantage of the shorter right-field porch in Philly.

If you plan on betting one unit per pick in this event, you could target three players (if you take Schwarber) and still come out with a profit if you hit the winner.

Schwarber and Rice are my best bet and long shot, but I also don’t mind Caminero, who is hitting over .300 with 14 home runs over the last four weeks for Tampa Bay. He nearly won it in 2025 and his experience certainly helps in 2026.

Pick(s):

Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber (+330)
Long Shot: Ben Rice (+850)
For Fun: Junior Caminero (+425)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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