2026 MLB Playoff Picture and Odds for Every Team (Blue Jays Skyrocket, D-Backs Have Edge Over Padres)

Less than a month remains in the 2026 MLB season, and the pretenders are starting to fall off in the race for the final wild card spots.

The National League wild card appears to be a two-man race, with the Arizona Diamondbacks sitting a half game ahead of the San Diego Padres entering Monday’s action. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins are both 25/1 to make the playoffs, even though they’re just four games out.

In the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays are back from the dead after winning seven of their last 10 games and are just one game out of a playoff spot. Should bettors trust them to overtake the Cleveland Guardians? If that happens, four AL East teams could end up in the postseason.

Each week in the lead up to the playoffs, the SI Betting team takes a look at the latest playoff odds in an attempt to find some betting value. Last week, I mentioned the Jays as one of those teams, and their price has dropped significantly heading into this week’s series with the Athletics.

Here’s a look at every team’s odds to make the postseason with just a couple of weeks left in the regular season.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

2026 American League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Tampa Bay Rays: N/A (100% at FanGraphs)
Chicago White Sox: -2000
Houston Astros: -360

All three of these division leaders are on the rise on Labor Day, even though none of them have more than a four-game lead.

Tampa Bay is going to be in the playoffs no matter what, but it could be in a battle with the New York Yankees over the final few weeks, especially since those two teams still have a series left on the schedule.

Meanwhile, Chicago jumped from -1400 to -2000 despite holding just a 2.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians. It seems oddsmakers believe the White Sox would be able to lock up the final wild card spot if Cleveland ended up going on a run to take the division title.

In the AL West, Houston has jumped from -210 to -360 to make the playoffs despite back-to-back losses over the weekend. The Astros have a two-game lead on the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners (six games back) appear to be out of the mix at this point in September.

Houston is by far the shakiest of the current division leaders, and I’d avoid laying the -360 price in this playoff market. FanGraphs is high on the Astros, giving them over a 76 percent chance to win the division and nearly an 80 percent chance to make the playoffs.

AL Wild Card Race

New York Yankees: N/A (100% at FanGraphs)
Boston Red Sox: -20000
Cleveland Guardians: +110
Toronto Blue Jays: +110
Texas Rangers: +240
Seattle Mariners: +950
Baltimore Orioles: +1500
Minnesota Twins: +1800
Detroit Tigers: +2500
Kansas City Royals: +3500
Los Angeles Angels: N/A
Athletics: N/A

The final wild card spot in the American League is now a dead heat between the Guardians (+110) and Blue Jays (+110). Toronto has jumped from +210 to +110 to make the playoffs, and several other teams have fallen off as a result.

Seattle and Baltimore are both hovering around 10/1 or longer to make the postseason, as a six-game losing streak has dropped the O’s to four games back of Cleveland.

There isn’t really a case for any long shot team, especially since the Rangers and Guardians are so close in their respective divisions. If they play well down the stretch, FanGraphs assumes that Chicago or Houston will get in regardless if they win the division or not.

As of now, FanGraphs projects the final wild card spot to go to Cleveland:

Guardians: 56.8 percent chance to make the playoffs
Blue Jays: 38.3 percent chance to make the playoffs
Rangers: 25.4 percent chance to make the playoffs

2026 National League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Milwaukee Brewers: N/A (100% at FanGraphs)
Los Angeles Dodgers: N/A (100% at FanGraphs)
Atlanta Braves: N/A (100% at FanGraphs)

The National League division leaders have long been locked in to make the playoffs, and a couple of wins in a row from the Los Angeles Dodgers has tightened the race for the No. 1 seed in the league.

Atlanta wraps up a four-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday, and it could extend its division lead to six games with a win. As of Monday morning, FanGraphs gives the Braves over a 93 percent chance to win the division.

Milwaukee still holds the best record in the NL, but the Dodgers (winners of four in a row) are surging right now. L.A. also has the biggest cushion (10.5 games) as a division leader in MLB.

The race for the No. 1 seed should be a fun battle over the final few weeks of regular-season action.

NL Wild Card Race

Chicago Cubs: -20000
Philadelphia Phillies: -20000
Arizona Diamondbacks: -115
San Diego Padres: +110
Miami Marlins: +2500
St. Louis Cardinals: +2500
Washington Nationals: +3500
Pittsburgh Pirates: +3500
Cincinnati Reds: +3500
New York Mets: N/A
San Francisco Giants: N/A
Colorado Rockies: N/A

The Philadelphia Phillies are making a serious push for the top wild card spot in the NL, sitting just a half game back of the Chicago Cubs entering Monday’s action.

Philly and Chicago both have at least a 99 percent chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs, a sign that only one of San Diego or Arizona will get in.

Arizona currently has the lead in the wild card, and it is an odds-on favorite (-115) to make the postseason (up from +105 last week). The Padres have dropped from -125 to +110 in the process.

There are other teams in the mix to make the playoffs, but both St. Louis and Miami are +2500 in the latest odds.

According to FanGraphs, the D-Backs have over a 53 percent chance to make the postseason while San Diego has just a 43.6 percent chance. No other team in the National League wild card race even has a two percent chance of getting in, which is a sign that bettors should wait and see before taking a long shot play for Miami or St. Louis.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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