2026 World Cup Golden Boot Odds: Kylian Mbappe Set as Odds-On Favorite Ahead of Semifinals

There are just four games left in the 2026 World Cup as the semifinals are set to begin on Tuesday afternoon. That means we now know the race for the Golden Boot is down to six players, with only four having a realistic chance.

Let's take a look at the odds and then break them down.

World Cup Golden Boot Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Kylian Mbappe (France) -140
Lionel Messi (Argentina) +145
Harry Kane (England) +1200
Jude Bellingham (England) +2500
Ousmane Dembele (France) +10000
Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) +12500

Kylian Mbappe enters the semifinal as the odds-on favorite to win the Golden Boot, as the tournament's top goal-scorer. At -140 odds, he has an implied probability of 58.33% of winning the award for the second straight World Cup. He would become the first-ever player to win two World Cup Golden Boots in their career.

His biggest competition for the award this year is Lionel Messi, who's tied with Mbappe with eight goals. Messi finished second to Mbappe for the award in 2022.

The two players have a bit of cushion on the rest of the field. Erling Haaland is third in goals with seven, but with Norway now eliminated, he won't be able to add to that total. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham are next on the list, each with six.

Spain's top goalscorer is Mikel Oyarzabal, who has four goals so far in the tournament. While he technically has a chance to win the Golden Boot, he'll need to rack up goals in a hurry in Spain's next two games.

We can confidently say the Golden Boot will be given to either Mbappe or Messi heading into the final four matches.

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

With the latest FanDuel promo code new-user offer, you can get $350 in bonus bets. Create your new FanDuel account today, bet $5 for seven straight days and get $350 in bonus bets back.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

Add us as a preferred source on Google