Aces vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for WNBA Commissioner’s Cup

The Las Vegas Aces’ path to a spot in the Commissioner’s Cup title game is simple: Win on Wednesday and you’re in.

The Aces are 5-1 in Commissioner’s Cup after Monday’s blowout loss to the Dallas Wings, but they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Minnesota Lynx, meaning a win guarantees the Aces a chance to play for their second Commissioner’s Cup title.

Las Vegas takes on the struggling Phoenix Mercury (4-11) on Wednesday night, though Phoenix did blow out the Aces to open the season. Alyssa Thomas and Co. have struggled since, losing 11 of their last 14 games, sitting ahead of only the Seattle Storm in the Western Conference.

As a result, the Mercury are 7.5-point home underdogs in this matchup – which is a rematch of last year’s WNBA Finals.

Can the Aces take down the Mercury to set up a Commissioner’s Cup title game against the New York Liberty later this month?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Wednesday’s Western Conference battle.

Aces vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Aces -7.5 (-105)
Mercury +7.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Aces: -310
Mercury: +250

Total

172.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Aces vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, June 17
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): USA Network
Aces record: 10-4
Mercury record: 4-11

Aces vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

Jewell Loyd -- questionable
Dana Evans -- out
Chennedy Carter -- out
Janiah Barker -- questionable

Mercury Injury Report

Sami Whitcomb -- out

Aces vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

Jewell Loyd 8+ Points (-163)

Veteran guard Jewell Loyd is averaging just 7.8 points per game in the 2026 season, but she did have her best game of the year on Monday against Dallas, scoring 21 points.

Loyd is shooting just 36.3 percent from the field and 31.3 percent from 3, and there is certainly a chance she improves on those percentages as the season goes on. After all, Loyd is a career 40.0-percent shooter from the field and averages over 16 points per game.

In 12 games, Loyd has five with eight or more points, and I think she can build on Monday’s strong showing against a Phoenix team that is just 11th in the league in defensive rating.

Aces vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking a moneyline parlay with the Liberty and Aces:

The path to the Commissioner’s Cup championship game is pretty simple for the Las Vegas Aces: Win and get in.

The Aces hold the tiebreaker over the Lynx after Saturday night’s win, but they struggled on Monday against an up-and-coming Dallas team, suffering their second road loss of the season.

I don’t expect that to happen on Wednesday against the 4-11 Phoenix Mercury, even though Phoenix blew out the Aces in the first meeting between these teams.

Since then, the Mercury are 3-11 while the Aces have won 10 of their next 13 games.

A’ja Wilson and company have the No. 2 offensive rating in the WNBA while the Mercury are 11th in both offensive and defensive rating. Plus, Phoenix is a league-worst 5-10 against the spread in the 2026 season.

With a trip to the Commissioner’s Cup title game on the line, I’ll trust the Aces to get the job done.

Taking the moneyline solo (-310) doesn’t make a ton of sense, so since I’m backing Las Vegas, I will lean with it covering the spread on the road tonight.

Pick: Aces -7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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