Aces vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Thursday, Sept. 24

A’ja Wilson and the defending champion Las Vegas Aces have won six games in a row and have a ton to play for on Thursday night in their regular season finale against the Phoenix Mercury.

The Aces have a chance to lock up the No. 2 seed in the W, but they need a win and a Golden State loss to Los Angeles to make it happen. The Aces beat the Sparks by 10 points on Tuesday night, setting up this scenario on the final day of the regular season.

This veteran Las Vegas team doesn’t need to worry about seeding given its playoff prowess, but a home-court advantage in the WNBA Semifinals could be important.

The Aces are road favorites against the already-eliminated Mercury on Thursday, though Phoenix did upset Dallas earlier in the week. Kahleah Copper and Co. took a massive step back in 2026 after facing the Aces in the WNBA Finals last season.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this Western Conference battle to close out the WNBA regular season.

Aces vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Aces -10.5 (-102)
Mercury +10.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Aces: -455
Mercury: +350

Total

176.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Aces vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Sept. 24
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): USA Network, CNBC, Merc+, Arizona Family of Sports Network
Aces record: 30-13
Mercury record: 16-27

Aces vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Aces Injury Report

NaLyssa Smith – out

Mercury Injury Report

Kelsey Plum – out

Aces vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kahleah Copper 18+ Points (-178)

There’s a chance the Mercury limit the minutes for some of their stars in this regular-season finale, but I can’t pass up this prop for Kahleah Copper.

The star guard is averaging 21.6 points per game while shooting 44.9 percent from the field, and she’s scored 18 or more points in each of her last six games.

Since the All-Star break, the former Finals MVP is averaging 24.0 points per game while shooting 49.5 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from beyond the arc. She has just one game this season with 18 or more points against the Aces, but I’m buying Copper to stay hot given how much volume she’s seen in this offense since the break.

Aces vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

The task at hand is pretty simple for the Aces:

A win locks up the No. 3 seed and a Golden State loss and Las Vegas win locks up the No. 2 seed.

The Aces have won all six games on this winning streak by 10 or more points, and they beat the Mercury by 48 points the last time these teams played. After losing to Phoenix in the regular season opener, the Aces have two double digit wins in their last two meetings.

The Mercury have nothing to play for at this point in the campaign and are just 3-7 against the spread when set as home underdogs in 2026.

Meanwhile, the Aces are 15-6 overall on the road, going 9-7 against the spread when favored. I think they close out the season strong on Thursday night.

Pick: Aces -10.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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