Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 5

A massive top-25 matchup takes place at 12 p.m. EST on Saturday in Week 5 of the college football season, as the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) take on the No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0).

This game features two of the best quarterbacks in college football so far this season in Alabama’s Keelon Russell and Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor, who is third in the odds to win the Heisman this season .

I took a quick look at the seasons for both of these players later on in this piece, and it should make for a close game with the Crimson Tide set as one-possession favorites on the road.

Alabama has looked every bit the part of a College Football Playoff contender, blowing out South Carolina in a Week 4 win. Meanwhile, Mississippi State jumped all the way up to No. 16 in the rankings after taking down another top-25 team in Missouri to improve to 2-0 in SEC action.

Can Taylor keep his team undefeated in Week 5?

Let’s take a look at the odds, how to watch, my pick and more for this SEC showdown on Saturday.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Alabama -6 (-112)
Mississippi State +6 (-108)

Moneyline

Alabama: -218
Mississippi State: +180

Total

59.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Alabama vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Alabama record: 4-0
Mississippi State record: 4-0

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch

Keelon Russell, Quarterback, Alabama

For two weeks in a row, Russell has been one of the biggest risers in the Heisman odds. Russell went from +2200 to +1600 after Alabama blew out South Carolina in Week 4, and he turned in two huge performances with his arm after a slow start in that department to begin the season.

Russell finished the win over South Carolina with 365 passing yards and four passing scores while adding 35 yards and a score on the ground. He now has 11 combined touchdowns and has thrown for over 1,100 yards this season.

This matchup could vault Russell into the top five in the Heisman odds if he outplays Taylor, who is now third in the Heisman race.

Kamario Taylor, Quarterback, Mississippi State

Taylor has done it all for the Bulldogs, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 1,192 yards, 14 scores and just two picks in four games. He’s also carried the ball 37 times for 185 yards and a score.

The sophomore quarterback led Mississippi State to a huge win over a ranked opponent in Missouri in Week 4, and now he has a tough SEC schedule ahead with games against Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma and Texas next on the schedule.

That stretch could make or break Taylor’s Heisman case, especially if the Bulldogs lose the majority of those matchups, but the star QB may be the equalizer for Mississippi State as it chases a College Football Playoff berth.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Mississippi State’s start to the season has been extremely impressive, but there some concerning net adjusted EPA/Play numbers for the Bulldogs when compared to Alabama, per Game On Paper:

Alabama

Net/Adj EPA/Play: 8th
Offense: 20th
Defense: 19th

Mississippi State

Net/Adj EPA/Play: 85th
Offense: 52nd
Defense: 103rd

I think Taylor is the better quarterback in this matchup, but this Alabama defense gave LaNorris Sellers and the South Carolina Gamecocks a tough time in Week 4, holding them to just 18 points. That same South Carolina team hung 34 points on Mississippi State in a seven-point loss in Week 3.

The Bulldogs’ defense is just 73rd in the country in EPA/Pass and outside the top 60 in success rate against passing plays. With Russell finding his groove through the air the last two weeks, I think Alabama will be able to score pretty easily on Saturday.

This spread has moved three points (from Alabama -3 to -6) since opening, and I’m going to take the Crimson Tide as long as it remains inside a touchdown.

Pick: Alabama -6 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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