Alabama vs. Mississippi State Predictions, Best Bets and Picks for College Football Week 5

Just a few short weeks ago, there was little to no chance that anyone thought the SEC game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Mississippi State Bulldogs would be the marquee matchup in Week 5 of the season, but that's exactly what we have ahead of today's slate.

Both teams are 4-0 to begin the season, with Alabama entering as the No. 7-ranked team in the country and Mississippi State entering at No. 16.

Nobody expected the Bulldogs to be a contender in 2026, but they have looked impressive thus far, including strong wins against South Carolina and Missouri over the past two weeks.

If you're looking to bet on this game, I have three wagers I like for it that I'm going to share in this article. Let's dive into them.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Best Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Mississippi State +180
Kamario Taylor 260+ Passing Yards (-108)
Lotzeir Brooks Anytime Touchdown (+160)

Mississippi State +180

In this week's edition of my favorite college football upset bets, I made the case for taking the Bulldogs to win this game outright:

I've been all in on Mississippi State this season, so it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is. The Bulldogs rank 19th in the country in adjusted EPA per play this season, along with a net success rate of +7.8%. Alabama is a great team too, but Mississippi State has the X-factor, quarterback Kamario Taylor, who I believe is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate.

I think Mississippi State is going to get one of its biggest wins in program history.

Kamario Taylor 260+ Passing Yards (-108)

Mississippi State is in the spot they're in because of their sophomore quarterback, Kamario Taylor, who has been fantastic to start the season, inserting himself into the Heisman Trophy discussion. He has completed 69.2% of passes for 1,192 yards and 14 touchdowns to begin the season. Not only that, but considering Mississippi State has a below-average defense, they'll likely need Taylor to go to the air early and often to keep pace with Alabama on the scoreboard. I'd be surprised if the Crimson Tide can keep him under 260 yards through the air.

Lotzeir Brooks Anytime Touchdown (+160)

While I like Mississippi State to win this game, there's no denying that the Alabama offense should be able to put up points against the Bulldogs' defense, so I'm going to bet on Alabama's wide receiver, Lotzeir Brooks, to find the end zone.

Alabama's top wide receiver, Ryan Coleman-Williams, has shorter odds at +120, but the two receivers have the same number of receptions this season, each with 17. That makes Brooks the more valuable bet to find the end zone from an odds perspective at +160.

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